The NBA Draft is now 16 days away, and well, there's so much to figure out still. The Utah Jazz currently have three draft picks: 1st round #5, 1st round #23, and 2nd round #35. The team needs everything, but the General Manager Dennis Lindsey isn't known for being passive -- he actively moved all three of the Jazz' draft picks in the 2013 NBA Draft. It is likely that he may move one or more in the 2014 NBA Draft too.
Assuming that he does not, which is what most of these Mock Drafts / Big Boards must do, who do you think the Jazz will pick? Well, I did the tedious data entry for 30 different drafts, and found out who is the most likely player for each case. Because this wasn't clear back in the Mock Draft Round-up 1.0, I'll try to be more clear here. The players are seeded according to the highest to lowest frequency of occurring at either the #5, #23, or #35 spots. This does not mean this is who I think the team should draft, it's just where players currently find themselves.
The player's will be listed by most frequent to least frequent, and include a percentage because not every draft is a full 60 player draft. So while there were 30 drafts used, all 30 had a value for the #5 pick, but only 28/30 had values for the #23 pick, and only 18/30 had values for the #35 pick. Don't be alarmed, it's just math. And I did it for you so you don't have to be bothered. Some players popped up in more mocks than others as well, so the uncertainty is higher for these players. The number of mocks they were in is displayed as well as their Rk, which is their consensus ranking value. Anyway, let's get on with it.
1st Round, Pick #5
30 of 30 Mock drafts used
|6||Marcus Smart||1||/||30||3.3%||PG/SG||6||4||225||Oklahoma St||So||18||6.77||30|
Back in the Mock Draft Round-up 1.0 the most frequently picked guy was a tie between Exum and Randle. This time it's Vonleh who dominates, taking more than one third of the total votes. This is 11 people. It's not like one or two people thinking who goes where. And Let's not forget that 24 of the 30 people who wrote these mocks are paid basketball writers or analysis. We know that they can be wrong a lot of the time (people thought the Jazz would lose to the Rockets and then the Warriors back in the day, remember?) ... but it's not like they are picking a rabbit out of a hat here.
I'm not crazy about Vonleh. But I really don't like the idea of the Jazz reaching at #5 to pick McDermott, who has a Consensus ranking of 10.27. You don't go out there, start John Lucas III, win 25 games, and then pick a guy who may or may not be a Top 10 player with a Top 5 draft pick. One mock had us taking Jabari, who falls to us. But that is equally as unlikely as Doug being picked #5.
I will state that if Vonleh ends up being as good as Chris Bosh, for reals, then I wouldn't be too upset going forward in my life.
1st Round, Pick #23
28 of 30 Mock drafts used
|5||Cleanthony Early||3||/||28||10.7%||SF||6||8||215||Wichita St||Sr||23||24.68||25|
|9||T.J. Warren||1||/||28||3.6%||SF/PF||6||8||233||NC State||So||20||20.00||27|
Yeah, no one knows what we're doing here. But the idea is that the Jazz would take K.J. here, or Grant. Or three other guys who were picked by 3/30 people to be there. I'm not mad, none of them are reaches as they are all within the 22.xx - 24.xx rank, and this is the #23 pick. I do take exception to the Jazz reaching for a guy like Spencer, Jordan, or Patrick here. It's is not likely that the Jazz will do that. Similarly, It is not that likely that someone like Hood or Payton will fall this far. The Jazz need wing help. I'd go with a wing here if they go big in the lotto. I'm against reaching for someone in the low 30s, but not against someone in the high 30s. But if someone awesome is on the board still you have to grab them.
2nd Round, Pick #35
18 of 30 Mock drafts used
|1||Glenn Robinson III||2||/||18||11.1%||SF||6||6||21||Michigan||So||20||30.48||23|
|6||Cleanthony Early||1||/||18||5.6%||SF||6||8||215||Wichita St||Sr||23||24.68||25|
|11||Johnny O'Bryant III||1||/||18||5.6%||PF/C||6||9||250||LSU||Sr||20||44.41||17|
If a guy like Early, Hariston, McGary, or Big Dog 3 are available, you take them. Period. I am very interested by Glenn Robinson III, so much so that I am seriously considering taking him at #23 right now. Compared to his peers at the NBA Draft combine he had just so much more on offense than anyone of them. What really stuck out was his ability to hit that Matt Harpring curl, I think he went 21/25 from that range alternating sides of the floor. At #23 you aren't looking for a star, but a guy who has an NBA ready skill who can stay in the league. I think as an off-the bench Harpring scorer Robinson is a possibility. Defense and rebounding? That's a huge question mark. But those players (the NBA ready skills) are the people you need to look at when looking at players at #23. Don't draft for upside there.
And if a guy who should go in the 20-30s is available at #35, you take them, and run.