NBA Draft 2014: Utah Jazz Mock Draft Round-up 2.0

Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

Utah Jazz Mock Draft Round-ups:
Round-up: 1.0 (May 21)

The NBA Draft is now 16 days away, and well, there's so much to figure out still. The Utah Jazz currently have three draft picks: 1st round #5, 1st round #23, and 2nd round #35. The team needs everything, but the General Manager Dennis Lindsey isn't known for being passive -- he actively moved all three of the Jazz' draft picks in the 2013 NBA Draft. It is likely that he may move one or more in the 2014 NBA Draft too.

Assuming that he does not, which is what most of these Mock Drafts / Big Boards must do, who do you think the Jazz will pick? Well, I did the tedious data entry for 30 different drafts, and found out who is the most likely player for each case. Because this wasn't clear back in the Mock Draft Round-up 1.0, I'll try to be more clear here. The players are seeded according to the highest to lowest frequency of occurring at either the #5, #23, or #35 spots. This does not mean this is who I think the team should draft, it's just where players currently find themselves.

The player's will be listed by most frequent to least frequent, and include a percentage because not every draft is a full 60 player draft. So while there were 30 drafts used, all 30 had a value for the #5 pick, but only 28/30 had values for the #23 pick, and only 18/30 had values for the #35 pick. Don't be alarmed, it's just math. And I did it for you so you don't have to be bothered. Some players popped up in more mocks than others as well, so the uncertainty is higher for these players. The number of mocks they were in is displayed as well as their Rk, which is their consensus ranking value. Anyway, let's get on with it.

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1st Round, Pick #5

30 of 30 Mock drafts used

Player (f) POS HT WT School Exp Age Rk #Mocks
1 Noah Vonleh 11 / 30 36.7% PF 6 10 240 Indiana Fr 18 6.13 30
2 Julius Randle 7 / 30 23.3% PF 6 9 225 Kentucky Fr 19 6.77 30
3 Dante Exum 5 / 30 16.7% PG/SG 6 6 188 Australia - 18 4.27 30
4 Aaron Gordon 4 / 30 13.3% PF/SF 6 8 210 Arizona Fr 18 7.40 30
5 Jabari Parker 1 / 30 3.3% SF/PF 6 8 235 Duke Fr 19 2.43 30
6 Marcus Smart 1 / 30 3.3% PG/SG 6 4 225 Oklahoma St So 18 6.77 30
7 Doug McDermott 1 / 30 3.3% SF 6 8 210 Creighton Sr 22 10.27 30

Back in the Mock Draft Round-up 1.0 the most frequently picked guy was a tie between Exum and Randle. This time it's Vonleh who dominates, taking more than one third of the total votes. This is 11 people. It's not like one or two people thinking who goes where. And Let's not forget that 24 of the 30 people who wrote these mocks are paid basketball writers or analysis. We know that they can be wrong a lot of the time (people thought the Jazz would lose to the Rockets and then the Warriors back in the day, remember?) ... but it's not like they are picking a rabbit out of a hat here.

I'm not crazy about Vonleh. But I really don't like the idea of the Jazz reaching at #5 to pick McDermott, who has a Consensus ranking of 10.27. You don't go out there, start John Lucas III, win 25 games, and then pick a guy who may or may not be a Top 10 player with a Top 5 draft pick. One mock had us taking Jabari, who falls to us. But that is equally as unlikely as Doug being picked #5.

I will state that if Vonleh ends up being as good as Chris Bosh, for reals, then I wouldn't be too upset going forward in my life.

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1st Round, Pick #23

28 of 30 Mock drafts used

Player (f) POS HT WT School Exp Age Rk #Mocks
1 K.J. McDaniels 6 / 28 21.4% SF 6 6 200 Clemson Jr 21 23.23 26
2 Jerami Grant 4 / 28 14.3% SF 6 8 203 Syracuse So 20 24.27 26
3 Clint Capela 3 / 28 10.7% PF 6 11 222 Swizerland - 19 22.89 27
4 P.J. Hairston 3 / 28 10.7% SG 6 5 220 NBA-DL 1 21 23.11 27
5 Cleanthony Early 3 / 28 10.7% SF 6 8 215 Wichita St Sr 23 24.68 25
6 Kyle Anderson 2 / 28 7.1% SF/PF 6 9 235 UCLA So 20 20.45 29
7 Rodney Hood 1 / 28 3.6% SG 6 8 180 Duke So 21 17.07 28
8 Elfrid Payton 1 / 28 3.6% PG 6 3 170 La.Lafayette Jr 20 19.57 28
9 T.J. Warren 1 / 28 3.6% SF/PF 6 8 233 NC State So 20 20.00 27
10 Kristaps Porzingis 1 / 28 3.6% PF 6 11 220 Latvia - 18 24.88 25
11 Spencer Dinwiddie 1 / 28 3.6% PG 6 6 200 Colorado Jr 21 35.24 21
12 Jordan Clarkson 1 / 28 3.6% PG/SG 6 4 180 Missouri Jr 21 35.80 20
13 Patric Young 1 / 28 3.6% PF/C 6 9 245 Florida Sr 22 40.28 18

Yeah, no one knows what we're doing here. But the idea is that the Jazz would take K.J. here, or Grant. Or three other guys who were picked by 3/30 people to be there. I'm not mad, none of them are reaches as they are all within the 22.xx - 24.xx rank, and this is the #23 pick. I do take exception to the Jazz reaching for a guy like Spencer, Jordan, or Patrick here. It's is not likely that the Jazz will do that. Similarly, It is not that likely that someone like Hood or Payton will fall this far. The Jazz need wing help. I'd go with a wing here if they go big in the lotto. I'm against reaching for someone in the low 30s, but not against someone in the high 30s. But if someone awesome is on the board still you have to grab them.

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2nd Round, Pick #35

18 of 30 Mock drafts used

Player (f) POS HT WT School Exp Age Rk #Mocks
1 Glenn Robinson III 2 / 18 11.1% SF 6 6 21 Michigan So 20 30.48 23
2 Spencer Dinwiddie 2 / 18 11.1% PG 6 6 200 Colorado Jr 21 35.24 21
3 Bogdan Bogdanovic 2 / 18 11.1% SG 6 6 200 Serbia - 21 36.94 17
4 DeAndre Daniels 2 / 18 11.1% SF 6 7 191 UCONN Jr 22 37.37 19
5 P.J. Hariston 1 / 18 5.6% SG 6 5 220 NBA-DL 1 21 23.11 27
6 Cleanthony Early 1 / 18 5.6% SF 6 8 215 Wichita St Sr 23 24.68 25
7 Mitch McGary 1 / 18 5.6% PF/C 6 10 250 Michigan So 21 30.92 25
8 Jarnell Stokes 1 / 18 5.6% PF 6 8 250 Tennessee Jr 20 34.89 19
9 Jordan Clarkson 1 / 18 5.6% PG/SG 6 4 180 Missouri Jr 21 35.80 20
10 Semaj Christon 1 / 18 5.6% PG 6 3 187 Xavier So 21 43.36 14
11 Johnny O'Bryant III 1 / 18 5.6% PF/C 6 9 250 LSU Sr 20 44.41 17
12 Dwight Powell 1 / 18 5.6% PF 6 9 227 Stanford Sr 22 48.00 17
13 Markel Brown 1 / 18 5.6% SG 6 3 200 Missouri Jr 21 48.08 13
14 Joe Harris 1 / 18 5.6% SG 6 6 211 Virginia Sr 22 54.00 8

If a guy like Early, Hariston, McGary, or Big Dog 3 are available, you take them. Period. I am very interested by Glenn Robinson III, so much so that I am seriously considering taking him at #23 right now. Compared to his peers at the NBA Draft combine he had just so much more on offense than anyone of them. What really stuck out was his ability to hit that Matt Harpring curl, I think he went 21/25 from that range alternating sides of the floor. At #23 you aren't looking for a star, but a guy who has an NBA ready skill who can stay in the league. I think as an off-the bench Harpring scorer Robinson is a possibility. Defense and rebounding? That's a huge question mark. But those players (the NBA ready skills) are the people you need to look at when looking at players at #23. Don't draft for upside there.

And if a guy who should go in the 20-30s is available at #35, you take them, and run.

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As an aside, the guys who are at #5, #23, and #35 by the consensus rankings are Noah Vonleh, P.J. Hairston, and C.J. Wilcox. The only guy who has that ranking who isn't specifically picked at that spot is Wilcox. No one has him going to the Jazz, but that's where he averages out to be heading towards.

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