Utah Jazz offense is offensive - MySynergySports data

Christian Petersen

A simple look at how our offense is doing via data from MySynergySports.com

Okay, we're the worst team at scoring in the league. This is a very new low for Utah Jazz fans, we've never had a team THIS bad before, right? Well, let's look at how we got here. This is the MySynergySports.com info year to year for our overall scoring. There are some things here that are easy to understand, like FG%, some other things in the middle like PPP (points per possession), and some things I've added that you don't get on any other site on the internet: like ePPG (estimated Points per game), and ePlyPG (estimated number of plays of a specific type per game). These extra things give us a more robust understanding of how frequently we terminate a play of a specific type, and how many points we usually get from doing it. (N.B. the game values are for regular season and playoff combined, which explains why you see 70 gms instead of 66 for our lockout shortened year, etc)

Anyway, here's the year by year data of our team's offense.

Season G Play Type Number % Time PPP NBA Rank FGM FGA FG% 3PTM 3PTA 3PT% ePPG ePlyPG
2009 2010 92 Overall 9721 100.0% 0.97 6 3590 7328 49.0% 505 1376 36.7% 102.49 105.66
2010 2011 82 Overall 8524 100.0% 0.95 11 3048 6549 46.5% 437 1262 34.6% 98.75 103.95
2011 2012 70 Overall 7742 100.0% 0.90 19 2702 6018 44.9% 268 911 29.4% 99.54 110.60
2012 2013 82 Overall 8654 100.0% 0.92 14 3036 6687 45.4% 506 1377 36.7% 97.09 105.54
2013 2014 13 Overall 1402 100.0% 0.82 30 434 1047 41.5% 70 238 29.4% 88.43 107.85

This is a downward trend. Things were a lot smoother under a Jerry Sloan offense run by actual all-stars like Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and Andrei Kirilenko. Things are sandpaper rough right now under Tyrone Corbin trying to coax blood from a stone like Jamaal Tinsley and Richard Jefferson. Things are not so great, but we need to look a little deeper to figure this out. It's not a simple answer like: the offense is bad right now because the season started with no good point guards and guys are missing open shots, right? (Well, that's probably what the final answer is going to be; but let's get to that answer after a few pie charts at least, ok. Humor me.)

Let's go down memory lane for a bit...

.

2009-2010

This Jazz team went to the playoffs, won a round, and was one of the better offensive clubs in the NBA that year. They played 92 games. And for the most part, on offense the things they did the most frequently were things that they were not just good at doing, but among the best in the NBA at doing.

2009-2010 G = 92
Play Type Number % Time PPP NBA Rank FGM FGA FG% 3PTM 3PTA 3PT% ePPG ePlyPG
Overall 9721 100.0% 0.97 6 3590 7328 49.0% 505 1376 36.7% 102.49 105.66
1 Spot Up 1901 19.6% 0.99 11 698 1727 40.4% 342 871 39.3% 20.46 20.66
2 Cut 1351 13.9% 1.29 8 693 1058 65.5% 0 0 18.94 14.68
3 Transition
1274 13.1% 1.23 1 567 923 61.4% 41 128 32.0% 17.03 13.85
4 Post Up 914 9.4% 0.86 17 303 651 46.5% 0 0 8.54 9.93
5 Isolation 893 9.2% 0.79 29 251 672 37.4% 28 99 28.3% 7.67 9.71
6 Off Screen 883 9.1% 0.86 18 330 785 42.0% 29 75 38.7% 8.25 9.60
7 Other 736 7.6% 0.37 26 55 137 40.1% 3 37 8.1% 2.96 8.00
8 P&R Ball Handler 580 6.0% 0.82 15 169 400 42.3% 40 97 41.2% 5.17 6.30
9 Offensive Rebound 538 5.5% 1.10 14 248 448 55.4% 0 3 0.0% 6.43 5.85
10 P&R Man 445 4.6% 1.15 3 201 352 57.1% 6 16 37.5% 5.56 4.84
11 Hand Off 206 2.1% 0.90 16 75 175 42.9% 16 50 32.0% 2.02 2.24

Good times. Some key points, the team nearly made 40% of their spot up threes, cut well, killed it in transition, and for the most part, scored more estimated points per game from their top three offensive sets then the number of attempts of those offensive sets. (greater ePPG than ePlyPG)

.

2010-2011

This season was the blow up year where Jerry Sloan resigned, and Tyrone Corbin was left to pick up the pieces. The team traded for Derrick Favors here (and the pieces that would either become or be used to trade for Enes Kanter and Trey Burke). This was also Year 1 of the Al Jefferson reign and domination of our offense. There are some significant changes already to how we did things.

2010-2011 G = 82
Play Type Number % Time PPP NBA Rank FGM FGA FG% 3PTM 3PTA 3PT% ePPG ePlyPG
Overall 8524 100.0% 0.95 11 3048 6549 46.5% 437 1262 34.6% 98.75 103.95
1 Spot Up 1534 18.0% 0.96 15 551 1410 39.1% 255 706 36.1% 17.96 18.71
2 Transition
1150 13.5% 1.18 7 500 835 59.9% 59 139 42.4% 16.55 14.02
3 Cut 1012 11.9% 1.25 8 525 842 62.4% 0 0 15.43 12.34
4 Post Up 1004 11.8% 0.93 3 372 817 45.5% 0 0 11.39 12.24
5 Off Screen 834 9.8% 0.85 20 288 740 38.9% 42 118 35.6% 8.65 10.17
6 Isolation 820 9.6% 0.85 12 237 603 39.3% 29 100 29.0% 8.50 10.00
7 Other 693 8.1% 0.36 30 37 121 30.6% 5 45 11.1% 3.04 8.45
8 P&R Ball Handler 530 6.2% 0.79 21 144 381 37.8% 26 83 31.3% 5.11 6.46
9 Offensive Rebound 500 5.9% 1.08 14 223 416 53.6% 0 3 0.0% 6.59 6.10
10 P&R Man 289 3.4% 1.03 9 123 241 51.0% 2 8 25.0% 3.63 3.52
11 Hand Off 158 1.9% 0.80 24 48 143 33.6% 19 60 31.7% 1.54 1.93

The Jazz continued to focus on things they were effective in, though it is curious to see that we were much better at Pick and Rolls to the screen setting than we were at isolations... but used one more than the other. The biggest is how isolation / stopping the ball movement offense really started to pay off, from 29th in NBA rank the year before to 12th. Of course, a little of a bad thing isn't going to kill you . . . but . . .

.

2011-2012

The Jazz returned to the playoffs this year in an amazing season where the team went from 12th in the West to 8th in the span of a few weeks. Of course this completely has to do with the Jazz being great, and not that 4 teams started to tank. Don't believe the hype, as Flava Flav used to say.

2011-2012 G = 70
Play Type Number % Time PPP NBA Rank FGM FGA FG% 3PTM 3PTA 3PT% ePPG ePlyPG
Overall 7742 100.0% 0.90 19 2702 6018 44.9% 268 911 29.4% 99.54 110.60
1 Spot Up 1378 17.8% 0.89 26 460 1274 36.1% 212 623 34.0% 17.52 19.69
2 Post Up 1322 17.1% 0.85 13 463 1076 43.0% 0 0 16.05 18.89
3 Transition
1182 15.3% 1.10 24 476 838 56.8% 25 86 29.1% 18.57 16.89
4 Cut 770 9.9% 1.22 8 384 636 60.4% 0 0 13.42 11.00
5 Offensive Rebound 591 7.6% 1.06 15 267 502 53.2% 1 2 50.0% 8.95 8.44
6 Isolation 561 7.2% 0.73 25 143 424 33.7% 11 32 34.4% 5.85 8.01
7 P&R Ball Handler 553 7.1% 0.67 30 147 402 36.6% 14 57 24.6% 5.29 7.90
8 Other 517 6.7% 0.44 11 40 124 32.3% 4 36 11.1% 3.25 7.39
9 Off Screen 432 5.6% 0.82 24 152 382 39.8% 9 35 25.7% 5.06 6.17
10 P&R Man 287 3.7% 0.99 11 118 233 50.6% 0 4 0.0% 4.06 4.10
11 Hand Off 149 1.9% 0.88 10 52 127 40.9% 10 36 27.8% 1.87 2.13

Anyway, here we see post ups rivaling spot ups for the first time ever; almost taking up 20% of our offense. Cuts get marginalized, and drop from being one of our top 3 plays used every year to being used less than 10% of the time. This is the death of off the ball movement, and 1/4th of the offense is either a post up (which is a post iso) or an isolation (which is a face up iso).

Oh, and the team force fed things they were bad at here.

.

2012-2013

This was last year where we had a great group of outside shooters. That made the offense look really good at times. For the most part the offense worked, but once again we see cuts getting a smaller piece of the pie and the Jazz going to things they were not proficient in.

2012-2013 G = 82
Play Type Number % Time PPP NBA Rank FGM FGA FG% 3PTM 3PTA 3PT% ePPG ePlyPG
Overall 8654 100.0% 0.92 14 3036 6687 45.4% 506 1377 36.7% 97.09 105.54
1 Spot Up 1694 19.6% 0.94 20 584 1568 37.2% 328 872 37.6% 19.42 20.66
2 Post Up 1396 16.1% 0.86 8 471 1070 44.0% 0 0 14.64 17.02
3 Transition
1271 14.7% 1.12 17 529 939 56.3% 71 159 44.7% 17.36 15.50
4 Cut 785 9.1% 1.26 2 418 661 63.2% 0 0 12.06 9.57
5 P&R Ball Handler 668 7.7% 0.69 29 180 494 36.4% 28 88 31.8% 5.62 8.15
6 Other 596 6.9% 0.43 13 40 109 36.7% 4 38 10.5% 3.13 7.27
7 Isolation 586 6.8% 0.77 21 177 467 37.9% 15 49 30.6% 5.50 7.15
8 Offensive Rebound 569 6.6% 1.09 11 258 459 56.2% 2 3 66.7% 7.56 6.94
9 Off Screen 507 5.9% 0.84 22 170 453 37.5% 47 117 40.2% 5.19 6.18
10 P&R Man 441 5.1% 0.94 21 166 347 47.8% 3 11 27.3% 5.06 5.38
11 Hand Off 141 1.6% 0.78 24 43 120 35.8% 8 40 20.0% 1.34 1.72

The Jazz had Spot up jumpers be the largest part of the offense when the team scored 0.99 PPP on them, and were #11 ranked in the NBA. This '12-13 club had a lot of shooters, but even so could not equal the performance of that older Jazz club. Also see that Pick and Roll ball handler up there? That #29 rank? Yep. #MOLO

.

2013-2014

Is it tanking when you try to do the things you are worst at, but the most times every game? Or is it 'learning' and development? Or just a bad offensive strategy?

2013-2014 G = 13
Play Type Number % Time PPP NBA Rank FGM FGA FG% 3PTM 3PTA 3PT% ePPG ePlyPG
Overall 1402 100.0% 0.82 30 434 1047 41.5% 70 238 29.4% 88.43 107.85
1 Spot Up 304 21.7% 0.82 26 88 273 32.2% 47 163 28.8% 19.18 23.38
2 P&R Ball Handler 216 15.4% 0.61 28 55 163 33.7% 6 18 33.3% 10.14 16.62
3 Transition
180 12.8% 0.86 30 54 121 44.6% 3 22 13.6% 11.91 13.85
4 Post Up 150 10.7% 0.85 11 49 107 45.8% 0 0 9.81 11.54
5 Cut 120 8.6% 1.08 24 51 96 53.1% 0 0 9.97 9.23
6 Offensive Rebound 104 7.4% 1.00 20 43 81 53.1% 0 1 0.0% 8.00 8.00
7 Other 97 6.9% 0.38 21 6 17 35.3% 0 5 0.0% 2.84 7.46
8 P&R Man 75 5.3% 0.91 22 29 60 48.3% 1 2 50.0% 5.25 5.77
9 Isolation 67 4.8% 0.79 19 22 52 42.3% 1 5 20.0% 4.07 5.15
10 Off Screen 54 3.9% 0.98 7 22 50 44.0% 4 10 40.0% 4.07 4.15
11 Hand Off 35 2.5% 1.09 4 15 27 55.6% 8 12 66.7% 2.93 2.69

Also of note, scoring off of cuts is now the #5 most used thing the Jazz do on offense. When we were a Top offense it was #2.

But that's just a numbers , Xs and Os , basketball game.

.

So the team isn't running the right plays. And the plays we rely on are not producing. Never before have spot ups been more than 20% of the offense. I really hope Trey Burke (off the ball) can nail these outside jumpers. More cuts and players moving off screens too, please. Or you know, just bring back the FLEX offense.

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