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NBA Draft 2013: Utah Jazz Mock Draft Round-up Episode 1

2013-05-22T22:00:34Z

It's post-combine and very drafty in here. Don't worry, you know we go all out for free agency too . . . so if the draft isn't your jam then just bear with us. Of course, the draft *is* my jam -- so I really get into it every year. Here is a quick rundown of who everyone things we'll go for. The first few rounds of mock drafts look quite different from the actual real life results. That said, it is always interesting to see what people think we will do.

While we have a feeling that the Utah Jazz do not select who people think we will, I wouldn't say goodbye to these guys just yet. After all, in the few cases where a guy we are projected to draft actually survives the draft long enough to get to us, we do pick them up. (Case in point: Morris Almond) So, anyway, here's what people think. I will try to update this every week until the draft, probably on Wed.

Round 1, Pick #14

Mock Draft	Author	Date			Round 1, Pick 14
CBS	J.Goodman	May	22	2013	Shane Larkin	G	Miami
Draft Express	J.Givony	May	22	2013	Dennis Schroeder	G	Germany
ESPN	C.Ford	May	21	2013	Shabazz Muhammad	F	UCLA
HoospHype	A.Smith	May	21	2013	Michael Carter-Williams	G	Syracuse
NBA . Com	S.Howard-Cooper	May	22	2013	Dennis Schroeder	G	Germany
NBA Draft . Net	Unknown	May	21	2013	Michael Carter-Williams	G	Syracuse
NBA Draft Insider	K.Habbas	May	22	2013	Jamaal Franklin	G	San Diego St
SB Nation	J.Tjarks	May	22	2013	C.J. McCollum	G	Lehigh
Sports Illustrated	C.Mannix	May	22	2013	Jamaal Franklin	G	San Diego St

So here we see a lot of guard action, where we're almost always taking a point guard -- the one dude who has us getting a non guard is Chad Ford. I really wouldn't be unhappy with any of these guys on the Jazz, however for some of them I think a #14 is too high. The #14s who stay in the league the longest are the ones who already have one NBA level skill, and are not works in progress / generalists.

Round 1, Pick #21

Mock Draft	Author	Date			Round 1, Pick 21
CBS	J.Goodman	May	22	2013	Archie Goodwin	G	Kentucky
Draft Express	J.Givony	May	22	2013	Tony Mitchell	F	North Texas
ESPN	C.Ford	May	21	2013	Shane Larkin	G	Miami
HoospHype	A.Smith	May	21	2013	Shane Larkin	G	Miami
NBA . Com	S.Howard-Cooper	May	22	2013	Steven Adams	C	Pittsburgh
NBA Draft . Net	Unknown	May	21	2013	Shane Larkin	G	Miami
NBA Draft Insider	K.Habbas	May	22	2013	Dennis Schroder	G	Germany
SB Nation	J.Tjarks	May	22	2013	Giannis Adetokoubo	F	Greece
Sports Illustrated	C.Mannix	May	22	2013	Shane Larkin	G	Miami

This round seems to keep up with the "we has the zero of the guarding points" issue. I think these mocks indicate that they know what we need. But I think the Jazz do bring back at least 2 of Mo Williams, Randy Foye, Jamaal Tinsley, and Earl Watson next year. We don't need ONLY PGs in this draft -- we need everything. And we always draft BPA, which is why I think all these PGs are reaches. Of course, if Dennis falls to #21 you take him twice. I am interested in the Adams selection by Scott Howard-Cooper there, he was impressive. But was he a 1st rounder impressive? I don't think so.

Round 2, Pick #46

Mock Draft	Author	Date			Round 2, Pick 46
CBS	J.Goodman	May	22	2013	James Southerland	F	Syracuse
Draft Express	J.Givony	May	22	2013	Myck Kabongo	G	Texas
ESPN	C.Ford	May	21	2013
HoospHype	A.Smith	May	21	2013
NBA . Com	S.Howard-Cooper	May	22	2013
NBA Draft . Net	Unknown	May	21	2013	Myck Kabongo	G	Texas
NBA Draft Insider	K.Habbas	May	22	2013	Ray McCallum	G	Detroit-Mercy
SB Nation	J.Tjarks	May	22	2013
Sports Illustrated	C.Mannix	May	22	2013

This is where things get interesting, because 75% of the people who have this out there already still have us taking a PG. Okay, thanks experts. We get it. We need to upgrade our PG situation. I do like Kabongo here if available, of course, if he blows up he could easily leave because second round contracts are harder to keep year to year. Every year one second rounder does show up and make people look bad. I do fear that Kabongo will go anywhere from 25-35. I don't expect him to be there at #46.

So, what do you guys think? Do you like these guys, or do you think that because mock drafts have us picking them that we will ultimately end up with guys we don't show our hand about?

The Downbeat #1k48 - Draft Lottery Tidbits

2013-05-22T18:58:48Z

The Cavs. Talk about lucky. After making a huge leap from 8th to 1st in 2011, they do it again, jumping from 3rd to 1st. Unbelievable. Some scrubs have all the luck. The Cavs' contingency in the small studio was large. I understand their excitement, but I also see how it may have rubbed some people the wrong way.

Zach Lowe wrote a great article about what he saw from inside the studio. You can find it here, on Grantland. Its mostly centered around said Cavs contingency, but there is some interesting stuff about the Wizards being interested in shopping their #3 pick.

Shopping a #3 pick? There's a lot of rumblings about teams willing to move down or out of this year's draft. Mike Wise, of the Washington Post, backs up Lowe's sentiments, saying that the Wizards should move the pick. The Bobcats (Hornets) may also be looking to move back in the draft.

This means that the Jazz may have teams with incentives to do a sign and trade wherein the Jazz send one or both of their picks and take on a high dollar expiring. Think Emeka Okafor, for the Wizards.

The Bobcats have a bevy of them. They would probably be more than willing to send Ben Gordon or Tyrus Thomas packing for a good offer on their #4 pick. Just some thoughts.

Mock Drafts are being feverishly churned out:

Chad Ford (ESPN Insider): Has the Jazz taking Shabazz Muhammad (So intrigued by this) and Shane Larkin

Draft Express (doing the Mock for Yahoo! Sports): Has the Jazz taking Dennis Schroeder and Tony Mitchell

NBADraft.net: Another PG in Michael Carter-Williams and then Shane Larkin with the Dubs' pick. (They also have the Jazz taking Kabongo in the second round. That would definitely fill their PG quota)

SI's Chris Mannix: A little off the radar with the Jazz taking Jamaal Franklin and then Shane Larkin.

CBS Sports: Two writers doing picks here, so go check it out.

SBNation: Big daddy has the Jazz grabbing... you guessed it, a PG in CJ McCollum and then the dark horse pick: Giannis Antetokoumpo as the stash pick

NBA.com (Scott Howard-Cooper): Dennis Schroeder and Steven Adams

That's a pretty good roundup. I didn't mention the 2nd round picks on all of them because many weren't included.

It would also appear that the pre-combine/pre-lottery mock's that all had the Jazz on a collision course with Kelly Olynyk (as I mentioned two weeks ago) have fizzled. There has been much talk about Shabazz free-falling on the big boards, but Olynyk is the one that seems like he is all over it.

Last week I through out a list of movies and books to keep you busy, yet still immersed in hoops, over the summer. Invariably, there was a mention of Celtic Pride in the comments. I'm just throwing this out there: I didn't include it because that movie is TERRIBLE. Other than Damon Wayans in a Jazz uniform, I don't find that movie entertaining at all. There, I said it. I feel better. You don't care.

Once A Jazzman, Always A Jazzman: Jerry Sloan

2013-05-22T16:05:55Z

1988.

Salt Lake City, Utah.

Frank Layden had just been promoted to President of Basketball Operations. He had prepared Jerry Sloan as his successor. Jerry Sloan. At the time, Jerry Sloan wasn't one to aspire confidence in fan base. Frank Layden, he of the NBA's Coach of the Year Award and Executive of the Year award, was finished with coaching. He was ready to move on. He had led the Utah Jazz to 5 straight above .500 seasons and 5 straight playoff runs. He was quitting midseason. He was turning over the reigns of a young Utah Jazz team to an inexperienced assistant Jerry Sloan.

Sure, Jerry Sloan had had some head coaching experience in Chicago. But it sure wasn't the shining pillar of excellence a Jazz fan has come to revere with Jerry's hollowed name.

Sloan was hired by the Bulls in 1979.

Sloan had been a scout then an assistant with them.

Sloan coached them for 3 seasons with an overall record of 94-121.

Sloan coached the Bulls to a playoff appearance in his 2nd year.

Sloan was fired after a disappointing start in his 3rd year as coach.

Sloan in his tenure in Chicago was known for having somewhat of a temper. Having thrown a chair in the locker room after a game in Dallas. He even admitted that his temper was one of his big failures. Jerry Sloan said:

My temper has been one of my failures. It's hard for me to accept the fact that guys can't play hard. I can understand fatigue, sickness, problems with your family and those sort of things. That's acceptable. But guys who come out and they're not interested in trying to get the job done, that's unacceptable.

That's what made the move to Jerry Sloan such a hard pill to swallow in that season of 1988. Frank Layden was retiring mid-season. The Jazz were on their way up. They had an exciting team with young players. Now they hire some hack from Chicago who couldn't even keep his temper in check. THE MAN THREW A CHAIR.

Jerry Sloan hadn't been coach for more than sixty minutes before he made his first request. He wanted Phil Johnson, previously of the Sacramento Kings.

At the time in Utah, if a fan was asked who would they rather have coach the Utah Jazz, Jerry Sloan or Phil Johnson, Phil Johnson would be the candidate. I mean look at his resume. He was a Coach of the Year in 1974-1975. He had been to the playoffs twice. He had NINE years of Head Coach experience in the NBA. He had coached in the most unstable of situations with the Kings moving from Kansas City to Omaha to Sacramento. He was less than one year removed from being let go midway through the Kings disappointing 1986-1987 campaign. Did he have a losing record? Of course, Phil did. But as we can tell in today's NBA, that doesn't stop coaches like P.J. Carlesimo, D'Antoni, and others from getting a head coaching gig.

So here is Jerry Sloan, a new coach in his 2nd coaching job. He of only 205 games experience asking for the Jazz to go out and hire Phil Johnson. Phil Johnson. Johnson had coached almost 3 times the amount of games Jerry had. He had hardware. Experience. If anything, Jerry should have been Phil Johnson's assistant.

But there's a backstory. Phil Johnson was the assistant coach when Jerry Sloan played for the Bulls. Then for one year of Jerry's Chicago tenure Phil Johnson was an assistant coach before he returned to the Kings. These two had a history. A friendship. A friendship of almost 40 years.

In fact, when Jerry retired Phil told Sloan that, "I came with you, I'll leave with you."

So how is this relevant?

In Chicago, there was the beginnings of another reunion, not of Phil Johnson and Jerry Sloan, but one of Jerry Sloan and the Utah Jazz. What was remarkable was at the NBA Draft Combine the Jazz had all hands on deck. They had almost every coach, scout, executive there. Except two: Jeff Hornecek and the tax maligned Sydney Lowe. Jeff Hornecek is target of at least two head coach vacancies: Charlotte and Philadelphia. With the prospect of at least one assistant coach gone, possibly two, next season the NBA Draft Combine offered an intriguing option.

It was at that first day of the combine when Amar and I spotted Jerry Sloan VERY engaged in the scouting of future Jazz prospects. If there are many organizations trying to hire him as their head coach why would the Jazz open up their future draft plans and free agency contingent to Sloan if they knew he would be gone in only a matter of months? Wouldn't that sacrifice their edge to other teams? It would. Which is why I do not see Sloan going any where.

Coincidentally David Aldridge of NBA.com reported that same day in which we reported Sloan being surrounded by what looked to be an army of Jazz executives and officials at the NBA Draft Combine:

He's interested (in coaching again). He's in Chicago now watching the Pre-Draft. And his name keeps popping up with every job, and he hasn't applied for anything. He had a real nice meeting with them. They came to see him on his farm. They had a great meeting just in terms of liking each other.

The bottom line is, Jerry doesn't really feel it's the right fit for him right now.

'I wish I could have stayed and watched the game with him.' It's just not the right fit for Jerry, from Jerry's point of view. That's not a negative thing; that's just the reality.

via David Aldridge of NBA.com

There will be teams trying to open their doors for him and beg him to come: Brooklyn, Los Angeles, Milwuakee. But I do not see Sloan going anywhere. Notice what Sloan's agent said.

"He's interested (in coaching again)."

"He hasn't applied for anything."

"It's just not the right fit for Jerry."

So let's put these pieces all together. Shall we?

Jerry has been an integral part in the Jazz last season as evidenced by his mentor role. He was at every Utah Jazz home game last season.
Jerry has turned down EVERY coaching gig placed in his path. He has not actively sought any head coaching position.
Jerry has a very big part in the Utah Jazz's pre-draft scouting and preparations as evidenced by his attention to the combine and players.
It goes against the Utah Jazz's front office confidentiality to allow Jerry Sloan to go coach somewhere else with the amount of knowledge he has of the Utah Jazz's offseason and draft plans. Kevin O'Connor has a history of withdrawing from trade discussions just because a proposed trade leaks to the media.
Jeff Hornecek, known to have been talking to other teams about their head coaching vacancies, was omitted from pre-draft scouting and planning at the combine.
The Utah Jazz will have at least one assistant coaching vacancy next season. Possibly, two.
At the NBA Draft Combine, Jerry Sloan and Ty Corbin sat next to each other and were both VERY engaged in watching prospects during drills. More than Dennis Lindsey, more than Kevin O'Connor, more than Walt Perrin.
Jerry Sloan, while at the NBA Draft Combine, never left Corbin's side to talk to other GMs, head coaches, or other executives. He was at the NBA Draft Combine to scout and assess as a coach would.

It would not surprise me in the least if Jerry Sloan was announced to be an assistant to Tyrone Corbin. Jerry asked for a veteran head coach to be his assistant. Jerry knew he needed all the help he could get. Even Phil Johnson has remarked in the past:

I tried to get Jerry out of here for several years ... I always thought I might want to do it if Jerry left, to be honest. A couple of times he talked to me about leaving and I thought it might be time. But not now.

Jerry Sloan was indebted to Phil Johnson for his friendship, their work relationship, and their partnership. Maybe this is the time in which Jerry pays it forward. Maybe, maybe not. But, in the least, we know Jerry Sloan is a large part of the current Jazz plans in this year's offseason. Maybe we will get to see him on the sidelines again. But it should instill confidence in Tyrone Corbin that Jerry supports him, albeit professionally. Maybe he'll be Ty's Phil Johnson and years from now we'll remark at their friendship and success in this new exciting era of Jazz basketball.

Whatever the outcome it does feel wonderful to know that Jerry is back with the Utah Jazz.

NBA Draft Lottery -- Everything you need to know in one place

2013-05-21T18:46:41Z

Tonight is the NBA Draft Lottery for the NBA Draft 2013. It will be televised (no need to send anyone there) on ESPN at 6:30 pm Utah Time (8:30 PM EST). The Draft Lotto has been around for 28 years and there's some very interesting stuff that we can look into if you are a really terrifying nerd like I am. For example, the #5 "seed" for the lotto has been 5x more successful in winning the lotto than the #4 seed over the last three decades (This was edited to better reflect the English language, and how I don't know it yet). That's not the way the probabilities are supposed to work, but that's how the ping pong balls have bounced over the nearly three decades of this event.

So, let's go over the lotto.

The Historical Results of the NBA Draft Lotto:

Here is every team who has "won" the lotto, their record that season, their probability to win, the number of teams they jumped to get there -- and the player they selected.

							Probability	Teams	Player
	Year	Lotto Seed	Team	W	L	%	To Win	Jumped	Selected
1	1985	3	New York Knicks	24	58	29.3%	14.3%	2	Patrick Ewing
2	1986	7	Los Angeles Clippers *	32	50	39.0%	14.3%	6	Brad Daugherty
3	1987	4	San Antonio Spurs	28	54	34.1%	14.3%	3	David Robinson
4	1988	1	Los Angeles Clippers	17	65	20.7%	14.3%	0	Danning Manning
5	1989	6	Sacramento Kings	27	55	32.9%	11.1%	5	Pervis Ellison
6	1990	1	New Jersey Nets	17	65	20.7%	16.7%	0	Derrick Coleman
7	1991	5	Charlotte Hornets	26	56	31.7%	10.6%	4	Larry Johnson
8	1992	2	Orlando Magic	21	61	25.6%	15.2%	1	Shaquille O'Neal
9	1993	11	Orlando Magic	41	41	50.0%	1.5%	10	Chris Webber
10	1994	2	Milwaukee Bucks	20	62	24.4%	16.3%	1	Glenn Robinson
11	1995	5	Golden State Warriors	26	56	31.7%	9.4%	4	Joe Smith
12	1996	2	Philadelphia 76ers	18	64	22.0%	33.7%	1	Allen Iverson
13	1997	3	San Antonio Spurs	20	62	24.4%	21.6%	2	Tim Duncan
14	1998	3	Los Angeles Clippers	17	65	20.7%	22.6%	2	Michael Olowokandi
15	1999	3	Chicago Bulls	13	37	26.0%	15.7%	2	Elton Brand
16	2000	7	New Jersey Nets	31	51	37.8%	4.4%	6	Kenyon Martin
17	2001	3	Washington Wizards	19	63	23.2%	15.7%	2	Kwame Brown
18	2002	5	Houston Rockets	28	54	34.1%	8.9%	4	Yao Ming
19	2003	1	Cleveland Cavaliers	17	65	20.7%	22.5%	0	LeBron James
20	2004	1	Orlando Magic	21	61	25.6%	25.0%	0	Dwight Howard
21	2005	6	Milwaukee Bucks	30	52	36.6%	6.3%	5	Andrew Bogut
22	2006	5	Toronto Raptors	27	55	32.9%	8.8%	4	Andrea Bargnani
23	2007	6	Portland Trail Blazers	32	50	39.0%	5.3%	5	Greg Oden
24	2008	9	Chicago Bulls	33	49	40.2%	1.7%	8	Derrick Rose
25	2009	2	Los Angeles Clippers	19	63	23.2%	17.7%	1	Blake Griffin
26	2010	5	Washington Wizards	26	56	31.7%	10.3%	4	John Wall
27	2011	8	Los Angeles Clippers **	32	50	39.0%	2.8%	7	Kyrie Irving
28	2012	3	New Orleans Hornets	21	45	31.8%	13.7%	2	Anthony Davis

				683	1565	30.4%	374.6%	91
				24.4	55.9		13.4%	3.25

* LAC gave pick to PHI, who gave it to CLE
** LAC gave pick to CLE

Essentially the team that WINS the lotto usually has a winning percentage in their 30%, and jumps 3.25 spots to get there. That kind of sucks because the #1 and #2 seeds have only won the lotto 8 times in 28 years -- despite having the best chances to win it.

Yikes! The probabilities don't seem to give a damn about reality, and vice versa. Probably the biggest "upset" was the Orlando Magic winning the lotto two years in a row -- the second time they only had a 1.5% chance to win it. That's just random enough to make it seem like it truly is random and not that a young expansion team in a big tourist destination didn't just draft an epoch changing bigman and still missed the playoffs.

Of note are that the #10, #12, #13, and #14 seeds have never won the lotto. And that's fine. We've only had 28 different lotteries. Not every team is likely to win it in such a small sample size. That said, there are 14 lotto teams, and 28 years -- so if you like round numbers, if everything was even each "seed" could have won it twice already. Of course, that's grade school track and field day math, and not actual probabilities. Some teams are just luckier (Cleveland), and some seeds have been shafted (#4 seed).

But those are the fates.

The 2013 NBA Draft Lottery:

This is how the probabilities shake down for this season

		Chances		Full Probabilities
Seed	Team *	Win	Top 3	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th
1	Orlando Magic	25.0%	64.4%	25.0%	21.5%	17.9%	35.7%
2	Charlotte Bobcats	19.9%	55.8%	19.9%	18.8%	17.1%	31.9%	12.3%
3	Cleveland Cavaliers	15.6%	46.9%	15.6%	15.7%	15.6%	22.6%	26.5%	4.0%
4	Phoenix Suns	11.9%	37.8%	11.9%	12.6%	13.3%	9.9%	35.1%	16.0%	12.0%
5	New Orleans Pelicans	8.8%	29.2%	8.8%	9.7%	10.7%		26.1%	36.0%	8.4%	0.4%
6	Sacramento Kings	6.3%	21.5%	6.3%	7.1%	8.1%			43.9%	30.5%	4.0%	0.4%
7	Detroit Pistons	4.3%	15.0%	4.3%	4.9%	5.8%				59.9%	23.2%	1.8%	0.0%
8	Washington Wizards	2.8%	10.0%	2.8%	3.3%	3.9%					72.4%	16.8%	0.8%	0.0%
9	Minnesota Timberwolves	1.7%	6.1%	1.7%	2.0%	2.4%						81.3%	12.2%	0.4%	0.0%
10	Portland Trail Blazers	1.1%	4.0%	1.1%	1.3%	1.6%							87.0%	8.9%	0.2%	0.0%
11	Philadelphia 76ers	0.8%	2.9%	0.8%	0.9%	1.2%								90.7%	6.3%	0.1%	0.0%
12	Toronto Raptors *	0.7%	2.5%	0.7%	0.8%	1.0%									93.5%	3.9%	0.0%
13	Dallas Mavericks	0.6%	2.2%	0.6%	0.7%	0.9%										96.0%	1.8%
14	Utah Jazz	0.5%	1.9%	0.5%	0.6%	0.8%											98.2%

	Chicago Bulls receive the Bobcats 2013 1st round pick (Top 12 protected)
	Charlotte Bobcats receive the Kings 2013 1st round pick (Top 13 protected)
	Charlotte Bobcats receive the Pistons 2013 1st round pick (Top 14 protected)
	Charlotte Bobcats receive the Blazers 2013 1st round pick (Top 12 protected)
	Miami Heat receive 76ers 1st round pick (Top 14 protected)
	Oklahoma City Thunder receive Raptors 2013 1st round pick (Top 3 protected)
	Oklahoma City Thunder receive Mavs 2013 1st round pick (Top 20 protected)

	Yeah, I just wrote that all down, but only the OKC / TOR deal is valid for this yr

While it looks bad for the low teams (the teams that aren't good enough to make the playoffs, and aren't lucky enough to lose the RIGHT amount of games (Like an oreo cookie, if you don't have enough milk you can't win the lotto or the playoffs) The #14 seed (the Jazz) only have a 0.5% chance to win the lotto, but we don't care about that. We have a 1.9% chance to be Top 3 -- which would happen for the second time in three seasons for us. Is that likely to happen? Not likely. The probability is only 1.9% for us -- but this is the same system (The NBA Draft) where the Magic won the lotto two years in a row, the second time they only had a 1.5% chance of doing so.

Stranger things have happened.

What's going to happen tonight?

By the probabilities, one of the top three teams will win the lotto. What does history tell us? A team from #3 to #6 will win the lotto. (15 lotto wins in 28 years, much higher than the 14 lotto wins in 28 years for picks #1 to #3) It would not be a surprise to see the Kings (#6) win the lotto this year. For a variety of reasons. Or the Pelicans / Hornets (#5).

What do you guys think?

Poll

The Lotto will be won tonight by:

The Downbeat: Basketball's Fun But Something's More Important

2013-05-21T10:00:07Z

If you haven't heard by now OKC was ravaged by tornados. Including one awful one in which at least 51 people are have been killed. It's an awful state of affairs right now in the city of Moore, Oklahoma. This area has a very special place in my heart. I served an LDS mission in Oklahoma. One of the areas I served in was South OKC and Moore. That being said there are a number of things you can do to help the people in the afflicted areas.

If you are looking to make sure a friend/loved one/acquaintance is safe in the are you can search a register of people who have listed themselves as safe and okay.

redcross.org/safeandwell

Next if you'd like to send aid you can donate to Red Cross in a number of ways. Those include

Calling 1-800-REDCROSS
Texting REDCROSS to 90999 to make a $10 donation
Or by visiting the Red Cross website and donate there.

These are the times where we as human beings need to band together and take care of our own. Having lived in this area I can tell you that some of it is middle class and lower income families. I know that whatever is donated will be extremely appreciated and necessary. It took 4-5 years to put that area in Moore back together after the 1999 Tornado. This recent tornado was much more powerful and did a lot more damage. This area will need as much help as it can get. We all pay money for ridiculous things. Whether it's for an ESPN Insider account to Angry Birds games w/o ads to Hulu plus when it's free on our computers already. This goes to helping someone rebuild their whole livelihood. Let's do this. Let's be good citizen and take care of our small market brother and sisters in Oklahoma. Please keep everyone in the Midwest right now in your thoughts and prayers. A lot of these states have been hammered. In fact as I write this the area in which I live in Indiana is under a Tornado Watch.

In addition, Welcome To Loud City has a great updating post on what is going on locally in Oklahoma. Give it look.

www.welcometoloudcity.com

Stay strong you guys. When I'm in the area we'll go to Ted's Mexican Restaurant. My treat.

Most of you have heard a ton of coverage of the NBA Draft Combine from Amar and I. There's still a lot more of that to follow albeit not in it's intense frequency (we'll be writing 1-2 posts a day this week compared to the 8-9). But there has been some excellent coverage as well that I'd like to share. After all, there were some excellent bloggers/writers who had their professional eyes on the court. Amar and I noticed Tony Snell of New Mexico really having an excellent combine. I honestly dismissed my thoughts because of my inexperience. He seemed impressive to me but I wasn't sure if I was just naive. But then Chad Ford dropped this tidbit about Tony Snell.

New Mexico small forward Tony Snell also appeared to make the leap this weekend from interesting prospect to potential first-round pick. He still has a long way to go as far as proving to scouts he can play with consistent effort, but the raw athletic ability and elite size for his position, combined with smooth shooting touch really improved his stock. I've heard his name as high as No. 21 to the Utah Jazz.

Thurl Bailey has a new job. He was brought on as the state of Utah's new Refugee Ambassador. Honestly, Thurl is a class act and this sounds like something he'll excel at.

Former Utah Jazz great Thurl Bailey has been named the state's refugee ambassador.

Utah Gov. Gary Herbert announced Bailey's new position Monday. He'll be a liaison between the governor's office and the estimated 50,000 refugees who live in Utah.

The state's largest refugee communities are from Iraq, Burma, Somalia and Bhutan. Each has about 5,000 people. There many other smaller refugee communities.

Herbert says refugees need help finding work, learning English and acclimating to life in the Utah. Refugees are people forced to leave their countries due to persecution based on race, religion or for political reasons.

Via TheRepublic.com

Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer is reporting that the Charlotte Bobcats might be interested in trading down. In fact, many teams in the lottery past the 4 spot are not very enthused about this year's draft. Mr. Bonnell writes:

I spent Thursday and Friday at the NBA Draft combine. These things become numbingly repetitious , so when an oddity sticks out, you tend to notice. Here’s what I noticed: The Charlotte Bobcats, a team assured of drafting no lower than fifth in the first round and having no second-round pick, seem oddly curious about players projected to be drafted in the middle of the first round.

They interviewed Duke center Mason Plumlee, Syracuse point guard Michael Carter-Williams and Gonzaga center Kelly Olynyck. It’s a stretch to draft any of those guys in the top-five.

This might be just zealous due diligence. General manager Rich Cho is meticulous to a fault, so chatting up too many draft prospects could be in his wheelhouse. But there was something that raised my radar about how curious the Bobcats seem to be about players who could be drafted 10th through 20th.

So I asked several writers covering teams with similarly high picks if they thought their general managers were receptive to trading down. "Absolutely," I kept hearing.

No one is particularly excited about this draft. I’m not saying it’s a write-off, but it’s clear what you historically expect to get with the third, fourth or fifth pick is not what this NBA draft figures to produce.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/05/18/4049789/pick-swapping-could-give-nba-draft.html#storylink=cpy

Tonight is the NBA Lottery Selection. If the Jazz win the NBA Draft Lottery with Randy Rigby, what should Randy Rigby's next move be? Vegas? Hot Sauce Wing Challenge? Let us know!

Poll

What are you going to do to help the victims of OKC?

Episode 178 Utah Jazz Podcast Combine Edition

2013-05-20T18:00:06Z

This podcast is epic! No really, we're being real here. Amar from SLCDunk.com attended the NBA combine and tells us all about it. He explains what drills were run, who was there (Jerry Sloan), what the interview process is, and what it was like to meet the lady that hands out hats at the NBA draft. Seriously, listen to this podcast people. If you're a Jazz fan at a all, you will LOVE this! Go Jazz!

College Point Guard Insider - Shane Larkin

2013-05-20T16:00:06Z

I could write my own evaluation of a point guard prospect and it would be fine. But I don't know as much about certain pro prospects as the fans who followed them in college every step of the way. This series, will interview the fans and bloggers from the point guard's college to see if we can gain any better insight into their games.

This is an interview with Jerry Steinberg of SBNation's Miami Hurricanes Blog "State of the U."

Clark:

What are your thoughts on Larkin's future in the NBA? What are his strengths and weaknesses moving to the next level?

Jerry:

First and foremost, I think Larkin has a long NBA career ahead of him.

Shane's athleticism is off the charts. I believe his vertical was something like 44 inches last year, and he was easily one of the fastest point guards in the nation last year. His handle and shooting are exceptional. FSU head coach Leonard Hamilton pointed out he also has the "it" factor you look for in a clutch performer. He also has a great feel for running the pick and roll and making good decisions in a high screen offense.

That being said, he struggled a little bit when he became the focal point of Miami's offense and faced more double teams toward the end of the season. At 5'10, he also does not have the ideal size many NBA Coaches covet.

Clark:

Do you think Larkin is ready for the NBA and is there a team or a system that you think would fit his skill set well?

Jerry:

Shane would be best suited to sit behind an experienced PG and learn the ins and outs of the NBA game for a year or two. With the right coaching, he has the upside to be a Ty Lawson/Tony Parker like player on the next level. If he does not improve his floor game and decision making I see him more as a Tyrone Lue type, who can still be a pest as a defender.

Clark:

What is something that people would only know about Shane Larkin if they followed him closely?

Jerry:

Shane listens closely to what the media and fans have to say about him and his game, and uses it as fuel to improve. Like his hall-of-fame dad, he works very hard to improve his game on a regular basis.

Clark:

What is your prediction for where Larkin will be selected in the draft and by what team?

Jerry:

I think the savvy front office of the San Antonio Spurs will take Larkin, and groom him as the heir apparent to Tony Parker. That being said, Utah would be smart to give Shane a long look. Adding Larkin to their talented front court (and) Gordon Hayward, would make a lot of sense.

Thanks to Jerry for taking the time to answer. I thought he gave a really nice look into Larkin's game, while being fair. I think it was also apparent that Larkin does pay close attention to media and things around him, as evidenced by his ability to name a large part of the Jazz roster in interviews with Amar and Mychal.

For more info and writing on Shane Larking, check out these links:

Shane Larkin's Jumping Ability off the Charts at Combine

What to Expect From Shane Larkin in the NBA

Shane Larkin Named Lute Olson Player of the Year

Magical Run Ends Abruptly

Miami's Season of Runs Ends in the Sweet 16

The Downbeat #1046 - Who Would the Jazz Take With the #1 Pick Edition

2013-05-20T12:20:06Z

As anyone who reads this blog knows by now, slcdunk has had the privilege of being at the NBA combine and conducting interviews. It's important (and fun) for us to see these interviews with the prospects, because really, breaking down the numbers isn't enough anymore. The personalities and the psyches of these guys matter a lot. As fans, we won't be keen on the interview process, but we can break down the stats and measurements and what not. But what do we learn as fans?

Personally, I don't think the combine teaches us very much about the prospects. A player's height or wingspan are important, but looking through the verticals and lane agility scores for current and past prospects, there really isn't a pattern. Let's take Shane Larkin for example:

Looking at his numbers and measurements, is there any reason to believe he will be any better than say..Nate Robinson? Similar size and quickness and leaping ability with similar shooting stats in college. At the same time, it's conceivable to think that he could be no better than Ronnie Price, right?

There are obviously big warning signs about prospects and big positives that help scouts, but I wonder how much of the middle stuff is just guess work? How does a scout know that Michael Carter Williams will be better than Shane Larkin? Or how does a scout figure out who is better between Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope?

After tomorrow night, we will be able to talk about the draft much more specifically, knowing the exact order. Tomorrow night is the NBA draft lottery, which is usually during halftime of the playoff game. While I don't expect the Jazz to luck out and jump into the top 3, I do wonder, "who would the Jazz draft if they had one of the top 3 picks?"

I haven't had enough luck with ESPN's Draft Lottery, so maybe you guys can help me out, but from what I gather, ESPN has the Jazz draft board as:

Nerlens Noel

Ben McLemore

and... I'm not sure. Never got that far. I'd guess Otto Porter or Trey Burke

For my money, based on fit and everything we know, I'm really not sure what my big board would look like. I wouldn't be stoked about drafting Nerlens Noel, because I'm not sure he's significantly better than Favors. He has similar strengths and weaknesses. Ben McLemore has a lot of the things we might need moving forward. But of course, Trey Burke would fill a need. But can you draft him with a top 3 pick if you are the Jazz?

At least, we will know what we do or do not have to consider or worry about after tomorrow. Thank heavens.

A lot has been discussed for the past two seasons about the playing time of Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter, etc, etc, etc. Obviously most of you have read Amar's passionate post and probably have strong opinions yourself on the topic. I'm not here to light any fires, or put any out, but I'd like to add some thoughts and discuss. I think in life, with sports or politics, or science, or whatever, we can look at evidence and make hypotheses and discuss our own ideas and add to the ideas of others without getting upset or accusing, or generally being jerks.

I'll just say it this way. I disagreed with a lot of what Amar wrote in that post. And that's okay. I disagreed with David Locke's methods in trying to make a point that Derrick Favors' minutes have been fine, by cutting off a portion of the comparisons to fit his findings. Personally, I wish Favors had played more up to this point. But I also believe that he is still capable of having a fine career despite his playing time limitations. Look at guys like Marc Gasol and Kevin Love and Larry Sanders. You can bring big men up slowly and not hurt their development. I do not believe the same is true for wings and point guards. They need the ball in their hands to develop, in my opinion. But bigs are a little different.

Up to this point, I don't think there is much of an argument that more playing time or less playing time for a young, inexperienced big man is either beneficial or detrimental to development. I will explain in a moment. But right now, I think the only gripe you can have about Derrick Favors' playing time at this point, is that you just wish you could have seen him play more. You like him and wanted to see him play. It's okay to feel that way. But I don't think you can prove right now, that his development is stunted. And to me, we know enough about Derrick Favors to evaluate how valuable he is and probably will be. At least a ball park figure to make a fair offer this summer. But let's try to look at some data and try our best to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.

Here is a list of all of the big men in the last 15 years, who played one year of NCAA ball and then entered the NBA. To me that is the best way to level the playing field in comparison. We could also limit it to top 5 picks, or guys that had a talented player ahead of them, but it's almost impossible to do both:

Derrick Favors

Chris Bosh

Kevin Love

Anthony Davis

Andre Drummond

Lamar Odom

Anthony Randolph

DeAndre Jordan

Kosta Koufos

DeMarcus Cousins

Spencer Hawes

BJ Mullens

Donte Green

These are the guys that I think we should be comparing Derrick Favors to. They were in the most comparable situations coming into the NBA to a degree. And guess what? Some of these guys are good and some suck. Some of them got tons of minutes right off the bat, some didn't. Some were gradually worked in. Some got better. Some got worse. Some we don't know enough about yet. I don't think there is really any definitive evidence that one way works and another doesn't. Let's be honest with ourselves. We are mad that we didn't see Derrick Favors over Paul Millsap or Al Jefferson more, because it would have been more entertaining. It may have helped the team. But the only thing we can be sure of, is that it would have been more entertaining.

But just to ensure that this is the longest bullet point, I have ever written in the history of downbeats, how about this comparison that I don't know ever gets made, but works so well:

Chris Bosh's College Stats

Derrick Favors' College Stats

Chris Bosh first 3 NBA years

Derrick Favors' First 3 NBA Years

They both played almost the same minutes for the same collegiate team, putting up really similar numbers. Bosh came into the league with more offensive potential, Favors defensive. But the fun thing about it is that Bosh played a lot of minutes right off the bat, and he steadily got better. I think there is reason to hope and believe that Derrick could have a similar path in his career, even if his strengths might be very different from Bosh's. But the bottom line, no matter how you feel about how things have unfolded thus far, Derrick Favors has to improve next season, and has no excuse not to.

regardless of what direction the team decides to go this off season, I believe the main theme will be not overpaying for anybody. If that is the case, I think there is a real chance that the team enters next season with a roster that looks something like this (salaries not exact):

Marvin Williams $7,500,000

Derrick Favors $6,000,000

Free Agent Big Man $6,000,000

Free Agent PG $5,000,000

Enes Kanter $4,500,000

Gordon Hayward $3,500,000

Randy Foye $2,500,000

Alec Burks $2,200,000

Jeremy Evans $1,700,000

14th Pick $2,000,000

21st pick $1,400,000

Washed Up Vet $2,000,000

Declining Vet $1,500,000

Total Team Salary: $48,800,000

As you've heard me and others say, this would technically be against league rules which state the Jazz must spend 90% of the salary cap on team salary which will be around $54 million this upcoming season. But what hasn't been emphasized enough, and give credit, to yuccaman, because he has been on top of this, the penalty isn't that huge of a deal. From the CBA:

If a team doesn't meet its minimum payroll it is surcharged at the end of the season for the shortfall. That money is distributed among the players on that team

So if the Jazz don't spend $54,000,000, they will be forced to divvy up whatever amount of money is left to get to $54 million among the players. Now normally, I would never advise a team to pay $54,000,000 for $48,000,000 of talent, but this is a special situation with many players being underpaid due to rookie scales. In fact, this might be a way to add otherwise illegal incentives to the players' contracts. In a way, the Jazz would not only be saying to guys like Hayward, Favors, and Kanter, "we believe in you" but also "here is an extra $500,000 because we don't feel the need to spend money, unless the right free agent is there. We trust you that much." Maybe it would be more of a bonus for sticking around and being patient.

Just a thought.

Time to put your money where your GM mouth is:

Poll

You are the GM in charge of drafting for the Utah Jazz. You win the 1st overall pick in the lottery. Nobody wants to trade you for it. Who are you drafting?