40 at 40: How many of the remaining 40 games do the Utah Jazz win in 2013-2014

Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sport

The 2013-2014 Utah Jazz season has 40 games left in it, over 86 days, starting tonight. Some of the teams are tanking, some are going for it. How will the team do?

The Utah Jazz have 40 games left to play this season spaced out over only 86 more days (sads...). The Jazz will play some teams gearing up for the playoffs, and some teams with nothing let to play for. I am going to assume that the Jazz will beat every team they play against who are tanking. (Just to humor myself). And I'm going to assume the Jazz play .500 ball against the rest of the teams. Except, of course, the best teams, which I will assume a loss. So what could our final 40 games of the season look like?

This starts tonight with this group:

Playing
Day Date Game # Good guys Bad guys To Win To Tank
1 Tue Jan 21 43 Utah Jazz vs Minnesota Timberwolves 1
2 Wed Jan 22
3 Thur Jan 23
4 Fri Jan 24
5 Sat Jan 25 44 Utah Jazz vs Washington Wizards 1
6 Sun Jan 26
7 Mon Jan 27 45 Utah Jazz vs Sacramento Kings 1
8 Tue Jan 28
9 Wed Jan 29
10 Thur Jan 30
11 Fri Jan 31 46 Utah Jazz vs Golden State Warriors 1
12 Sat Feb 1 47 Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Clippers 1
13 Sun Feb 2
14 Mon Feb 3 48 Utah Jazz vs Toronto Raptors 1
15 Tue Feb 4
16 Wed Feb 5
17 Thur Feb 6
18 Fri Feb 7 49 Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks 1
19 Sat Feb 8 50 Utah Jazz vs Miami Heat 1
20 Sun Feb 9
8 0

There are eight teams going for it, and none tanking. The hard games will be against the Warriors, Clippers, Mavs, and Heat. I say we lose all of the hard games, so four losses there. There are four games against teams going for it, and we're saying we go .500 on those, so we end up with 2 wins and 6 losses in the first 20 night block.

Playing
Day Date Game # Good guys Bad guys To Win To Tank
21 Mon Feb 10
22 Tue Feb 11 51 Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Lakers 1
23 Wed Feb 12 52 Utah Jazz vs Philadelphia 76ers 1
24 Thur Feb 13
25 Fri Feb 14
26 Sat Feb 15
27 Sun Feb 16
28 Mon Feb 17
29 Tue Feb 18
30 Wed Feb 19 53 Utah Jazz vs Brooklyn Nets 1
31 Thur Feb 20
32 Fri Feb 21 54 Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers 1
33 Sat Feb 22 55 Utah Jazz vs Minnesota Timberwolves 1
34 Sun Feb 23
35 Mon Feb 24 56 Utah Jazz vs Boston Celtics 1
36 Tue Feb 25
37 Wed Feb 26 57 Utah Jazz vs Phoenix Suns 1
38 Thur Feb 27
39 Fri Feb 28 58 Utah Jazz @ Cleveland Cavaliers 1
40 Sat Mar 1
7 1

This next group has seven teams going for it, and one tanking. I'm putting the tank games in the bank, so that's one win there. There are two teams that will be hard for us, Nets and Blazers. So that's two losses. There are five remaining games, and if we go .500 we can't split games, so I say 3 wins and 2 losses. So that adds up to a 4-4 20 night set. Combine it with the previous 20 nights and we're now 6-10.

Playing
Day Date Game # Good guys Bad guys To Win To Tank
41 Sun Mar 2 59 Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers 1
42 Mon Mar 3 60 Utah Jazz @ Milwaukee Bucks 1
43 Tue Mar 4
44 Wed Mar 5 61 Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards 1
45 Thur Mar 6
46 Fri Mar 7 62 Utah Jazz @ New York Knicks 1
47 Sat Mar 8 63 Utah Jazz @ Philadelphia 76ers 1
48 Sun Mar 9
49 Mon Mar 10 64 Utah Jazz vs Atlanta Hawks 1
50 Tue Mar 11
51 Wed Mar 12 65 Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks 1
52 Thur Mar 13
53 Fri Mar 14 66 Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Clippers 1
54 Sat Mar 15
55 Sun Mar 16 67 Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs 1
56 Mon Mar 17 68 Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets 1
57 Tue Mar 18
58 Wed Mar 19 69 Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies 1
59 Thur Mar 20
60 Fri Mar 21

Now things get really bad for us on the road. Nine of these teams are going for it, and 2 are tanking. So that's 2 more wins. But we play hard games against the Pacers, Knicks (they will be playing better and we never win there), Mavs, Clippers, Spurs, Rockets, and Grizz. That's seven losses. If we go .500 against the others that's another win and another loss:  3-8. Add it up and we're at 9-18. Home stretch coming on.

Playing
Day Date Game # Good guys Bad guys To Win To Tank
61 Sat Mar 22 70 Utah Jazz vs Orlando Magic 1
62 Sun Mar 23
63 Mon Mar 24 71 Utah Jazz vs Detroit Pistons 1
64 Tue Mar 25
65 Wed Mar 26 72 Utah Jazz vs Memphis Grizzlies 1
66 Thur Mar 27
67 Fri Mar 28 73 Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans 1
68 Sat Mar 29
69 Sun Mar 30 74 Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder 1
70 Mon Mar 31 75 Utah Jazz vs New York Knicks 1
71 Tue Apr 1
72 Wed Apr 2
73 Thur Apr 3
74 Fri Apr 4 76 Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans 1
75 Sat Apr 5
76 Sun Apr 6 77 Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors 1
77 Mon Apr 7
78 Tue Apr 8 78 Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks 1
79 Wed Apr 9
80 Thur Apr 10
81 Fri Apr 11 79 Utah Jazz vs Portland Trail Blazers 1
82 Sat Apr 12 80 Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets 1
83 Sun Apr 13
84 Mon Apr 14 81 Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Lakers 1
85 Tue Apr 15
86 Wed Apr 16 82 Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves 1
12 1

These are the last 13 games of the year, and only one team is tanking, so put that in the bank. Of the remaining 12 games I think 7 will be hard. The remaining 5 games will have us going .500, but it's an odd number so we get payback from that previous section -- Jazz go 2-3 there. So in total that's 3 more wins, and 10 losses. Put it all together I have the Jazz going 12-28.

Just by fooling around that's what I have. There's no way we'll lose every hard game, no way we'll beat every team I think is tanking, and it'll be very hard to go .500 against the rest of the league. I think the Jazz are likely to win more than 12 of their next 40 games. So I'd say this quick and dry method is a little too quick and dry. After all, I really have no clue which teams will and will not be tanking 70 nights from now.

If you look at this we'd finish the season with 26 wins, and 56 losses. That would be the same record that we finished with the season before we got Deron Williams (a legit star player, and All-NBA / Olympian) in the draft. Let's use that as the baseline then. If we finish with 12 more wins and get an All-NBA player out of it I won't be mad.

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