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Banking on Boozer

If sources are too be believed (not my sources of course), Miami, or more specifically Riley, doesn't want any part of Beasley. And the biggest reason the Heat (Riley) doesn't want Beasley is because of his personality and other character issues. Now they supposedly want a point guard to go along with Wade. One of the names that pops up is OJ Mayo (speaking of OJ, way to go Trent!)

Ute Awe Man pointed out to me in an IM conversation though, how can Riley use character issues as a concern for not taking Beasley and then turn around and take Mayo? So now when he doesn't take Beasley, he has some excuse.

And why wouldn't he want to take him? Apparently they want to take a run at Boozer next season. That's the only conceivable reason they would pass up on the Kansas State PF.

So with their apparent run on Booze, Miami has created a bit of fear with Jazz fans that we're going to lose Carlos and not get anything back. And after his lackluster playoff performance, fans are ready to get rid of him. Heck, there were some that wanted to trade him this year while his value was high.

Sorry, buy he's not going anywhere, at least not until the end of the season. Here are a few scenarios that could happen (or that some want to happen).

  1. Trade Boozer for the #2 pick. Miami gets Boozer early and Utah can draft a replacement. The Jazz don't lose Boozer for nothing. This isn't happening though for a few reasons. First, Miami is in no hurry to contend. They can wait out the season and get Booze next season without giving up a high draft pick. Second, the Jazz value stability above all else. They're not about to mix things up when they have a chance at a title. And that brings me to my last point. If they get Beasley, they set themselves back at least 3-5 years for a championship. They're not winning with him in the next 3 years.
  2. Count on this. Boozer will opt out next year. It will either be to sign with another team or to re-sign with the Jazz for more money. I believe the Jazz can offer him the most though.
  3. Miami trades the #2 pick to the Clippers for Elton Brand. That would quiet the rumors pretty quick.
  4. Or, they could up and trade him to some other team between now and the trading deadline next year. This is probably even less likely than trading him for the #2.
  5. If Boozer opts out and ups and leaves for another team, take a look at the list of available free agents next year. Gooden and Brand stand out. And if Boozer is gone, the Jazz will throw a ton of cash at Brand and a substantial amount to Gooden.

So what's going to happen? We can't trust Miami. And while Boozer has stated that there was no "wink, wink" deal with the Cavs to re-sign, you can't think that Cleveland would have let him out of his contract without some assurance that he was going to come back. Regardless of your opinion on that, even with a statement from Booze that he wants to stay and wants to play with Deron (although he left LeBron), I don't think any fan would sleep soundly knowing that he would stay.

So all we have to go on is past experience with the Jazz. So here's what's going to happen. Boozer will play through the season and the brass will deal with his leaving at the end of the season. They'll offer him a reasonable contract, probably not max, and it will be up to Carlos.

The Jazz aren't that far away from a Finals appearance. If you're looking for a trade to happen, it will probably be one that sends one of our two guards and the expiring contract of Collins for a big man.

We'll see how things play out in the draft tomorrow where there could be a ton of trades. But don't expect the Jazz to do any trading unless they're trading away a pick.

Look for a trade thread tomorrow at noon (MDT).