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Here's a great graph from the great minds at Golden State of Mind (who are also getting a new logo) that shows the percentages for each team for each pick (click to make bigger)
I don't know why I'm so nervous about tonight. I'm not expecting anything other than the #9 pick but at the same time, it's a lottery. You're supposed to get your hopes up for a sliver of a chance, right? Landing a top 3 pick, an 8% chance, would change the face of the franchise potentially and for me would make the second-round sweep go away.
As you're well aware, the Jazz aren't in the lottery often. When they have been, they've done a good job overall at getting the best pick. There have been a few they'd do over, but every team has those. Here are there lottery picks going back to 1980 with their overall pick number,
2006, Ronnie Brewer (14)
2005, Deron Williams (3)
2004, Kris Humphries (14)
1985, Karl Malone (13)
1984, John Stockton (16)
1983, Thurl Bailey (7)
1982, Dominique Wilkins (3)
1981, Danny Schayes (13)
1980, Darrel Griffith (2)
They picked the Golden Griff one spot ahead of Kevin McHale in 1980. Maybe that's the reason why the Jazz never pass up tall, white, centers now?
In 1983, they could have picked up Clyde Drexler instead of Big T. Maybe they could have picked Derek Harper and he could have turned us down then?
And in 1982, they made the right pick but traded Nique because of cash problems and him not wanting to play here. Of course, had we kept him, the Jazz might not have got the picks they did they following years and land Stockton and Malone.
What will be the fate of some of the Jazz free agents with tonight's pick? If we stay put at #9 then I don't know how much it will impact them. We're going to need 13 guys on the roster and we're well short of that right now.
If we're in that position, then we're likely drafting a big man at that spot. That won't be creating any logjams. The KOOF and Fesenko are still unproven. They may not have had the PT to prove themselves fully, but it is what it is right now. I also stand behind my statement that whoever we pick at the 9 spot should be able to move ahead of both of those guys. The KOOF was a late first-rounder and Fesenko was a second-rounder. The #9 pick better be able to move ahead of them. Does that mean Fess of the KOOF would be on the way out? I don't think so. Given that they know the system and Memo's uncertainty, they're certainly going to start the season with the Jazz. However, if Memo is fully recovered and the new guy works out, maybe we see one of them moved at the deadline as part of a package.
If we do beat the odds and move into the top three spots, then it might make more of an impact on the impending free agents. If we land the top pick, the Jazz are going to have a lot of options. I don't know how you make Deron Williams and John Wall work, but you make it work. Of course they could trade out of that spot or pick John Wall for someone else and trade him later.
If they got the second pick, they would likely draft Evan Turner which would mean sayonara for Korver.
If they landed #3, they could go with Favors or Cousins and that would certainly mean goodbye to Fess or the KOOF eventually. We'll still need to fill out the minimum roster requirements but it does make them expendable.
Will any position effect Boozer's status? I don't think it does either way.
And to instill some faith in the lottery process, let's end with the rigged 1985 lottery when the league sent the #1 pick, Patrick Ewing, to the Knicks. I know conspiracy theories are way out there, but when this video came out, it shook me a bit. Notice how all of the envelopes are lovingly placed inside the the ball except one that's thrown into the side of the drum. I love how he's dealing from the bottom of the deck too. Then Stern lets out a huge breath right before he reaches in and grabs the marked envelope.
[forgot to include this when this post first went up]
I don't mind the NBA being rigged, I just wish they would rig it for us once. Maybe they'll forget that we own New York's pick tonight and give us a few more combinations tonight? Would anyone notice a few more balls?
Lotto thread tonight starting at 5:30 MDT. It will be on ESPN @ 6 MDT.