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The Downbeat - 18 February 2011 - #429 - The Trade Or Not To Trade Edition

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With the trade deadline coming next Thursday, here is my order of most-likely to get moved, if anyone at all, starting at the top:

  1. Kyrylo Fesenko. He's an unrestricted FA and hasn't appeared to be in the team's long-term plans.
  2. Ronnie Price. He could be sent for picks to veteran team looking for a backup PG/SG. Another expiring contract. There was also a rumor that the Knicks were interested.
  3. AK. He drops because as Clark has pointed out before, there aren't many teams that could absorb his contract without having to send back equal salary in return. He won't save the Jazz that much when his contract comes off the books in relation to the cap. He could though be sent to a team that needs an extra piece but the Jazz would have to take on long-term contracts. If that's the case, it lowers the chance that he returns to the team.
  4. CJ Miles. He has a team option for next season so he could be in effect an expiring deal. He's also a cheap option though at $3.7M.
  5. Paul Millsap. This would have to be a talent for talent deal for the Jazz to do this one. He has an attractive contract and is a very good player. The Jazz could bring back a quality wing.
  6. Al Jefferson. I don't see him getting moved at all given his contract. It would also have to be a talent swap as well.
  7. The Rookies. The only way Hayward and Evan get moved is in a salary dump move like we saw with Harpring last season. There is the chance though that if the Jazz make a move to improve the team, one of them could be paired with AK/Sap/Al to bring back talent.
  8. Earl Watson/Francisco Elson. I don't think there's any way the team trades either of them right now. Watson might have some value to another team looking to shore up their PG spot for a playoff run, but he's too valuable to the team right now. For Elson, I don't see him being a target of other teams.
  9. Raja Bell. He has two more years left on his deal and with his numbers right now, nobody is going to want him.
  10. Mehmet Okur. With his injuries, nobody is trading for him and his salary.
  11. Deron Williams. Pretty self-explanatory.

Hickory High takes a look at Millsap's falling offensive rebound numbers:

Over the past five seasons Millsap’s offensive development has led to an increase in the amount of time he spends away from the basket. More time away from the basket means less high-quality opportunities for offensive rebounds. This is not the only reason his ORB% has declined but it appears to be a major factor.

This makes sense with the percentage of shots that he's taking away from the basket. He also talks about not having any rebounders with at least a 10% offensive rebounding rate. I don't think that's a big deal.

One, Millsap is very effective with those shots. Two, even Karl Malone only broke 10% twice in a season, and that was barely 10%. His percentage waned as he developed his jump shot.

Sap had a very high rate his first few years in the league because he was never the primary offensive option so the majority of his work came off of rebounds and putbacks.

Finally, I don't know if offensive rebounds mean that much in relation to winning. If you look at the top 5 offensive rebounding teams in the league, you have Minnesota (Love), Sacramento, LAC (Griffin), Portland (Aldridge), and LAL. That's a mix of good and not so good teams. The Celtics are the worst offensive-rebounding team in the league.

Offensive rebounding, and rebounds in general, doesn't seem to have much bearing on whether the Jazz win or lose. After crunching some numbers, here's how the Jazz fare in the rebounding battle:

Total rebounds

14-10 when they win or tie the total rebound battle
17-14 when they lose the total rebound battle

Offensive rebounds

15-13 when they win or tie the offensive rebound battle
16-11 when they lose the offensive rebound battle

Defensive rebounds

18-10 when they win or tie the defensive rebound battle
13-14 when they lose the defensive rebound battle

The only time they have a losing record is when the other team has more defensive rebounds. This is an example:

Lazy Box 5 (via NBAPlaybook)

Deron Williams and Paul Millsap make Bill Simmons' annual trade value column. Sap checks in at #45 while Deron gets taken down a notch to #11:

11. Deron Williams
I dropped him a spot because he's still covered in Jerry Sloan's blood. Deron, you might want to take a bath in tomato juice to get it off. And use a dish scrubber.

(By the way, Williams winning a power struggle with Sloan wasn't even the most dramatic moment of Utah's season! I'll let Bryce in Montana explain: "At the Jazz-Bulls game (last week), there was an incredibly awkward moment in the first half when Kyle Korver and Gordon Hayward entered the game at the same time. The crowd reacted kind of like a woman dating two men who just found out about each other and were ready to fight it out, and she wasn't sure which one to cheer for. The crowd (especially the women) went crazy, but they all had a distressed expression. It was a great moment that you surely would have loved if you were watching." Throw in Sloan and Williams nearly brawling at halftime, Carlos Boozer's return and the decent possibility of Michelle Money being there and I'm calling that the most dramatic game of the year.)

Really, that was one of the craziest weeks in Jazz history.

CJ is struggling shooting the ball this season. All of his numbers are at career lows. So why is his PER the highest of his career at 15.1 and why do the Jazz play better when he's on the court than off?

He's the best defensive rebounding wing that we have behind AK and has been one of the best defenders on the team. His steal percentage is third on the team behind Price and Watson and is fourth in defensive win shares behind Al, Sap, and AK despite playing less minutes.

If that shooting ever comes around...

Friday poll....