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The Downbeat - 2 February 2011 - #417 - The Constantinople Of The Whole Western Appalachian-Susquehanna Drainage System Edition

First, if you don't like Groundhog Day, I don't know if we can be Internet friends.  If you have Encore, it's on all day.  If you don't, it has to be in the $5 bin at Wal-mart or somewhere.  

It's pretty easy to compare the Jazz this season to Phil's (yes, like the groundhog) recurring nightmare of a day in Punxsutawney.  Our slow starts are as automatic as "I've got you babe."  We've seen the same game so many times that we can see what's going to happen before it comes.  By the end, we're punching Ned in the face.

SPOILER:  So who's going to be our Rita that snaps us out of it?  Could it be Watson's recent play that has changed the dynamic of the team with Deron out?  And maybe more importantly:  will the team learn anything from the recurring theme of the season and turn it into good?  After trying to kill himself many times (see, it applies again), Phil finally sees the light and starts using his knowledge for good.  Can the Jazz see a slow start coming and change their fortune?

If you haven't seen the movie, none of that is going to make sense.

  Comparing the Jazz to the characters from Groundhog Day:

Phil = Jazz fans/team/org.  It's been almost the same thing every game this season.  Will we finally snap out of it?

God = Jerry Sloan.  Here's this quote from the movie with Phil talking to Rita:

Maybe the real God uses tricks.
Maybe He's not omnipotent.

He's just been around so long,
He knows everything.

Ned = Any opposing player you'd like to punch

  Stockton's son David got a scholarship at Gonzaga after redshirting last season.  With BYU heading to the WCC next season in basketball, we'll finally get  have another Stockton playing in Utah again.

  +/- usually isn't very effective for measuring a player's worth.  Adjusted +/- though attempts to find a player's value by adjusting for the performance of teammates. has a good explanation.  I don't understand it completely, but apparently even a season's worth of data might not be an adequate sample size.  So using a half-season's worth of data is even more error-prone.   Aaron Barzilai Ph.D. wrote that explanation at and also runs where they have a 2-year adjusted +/- value.

So using adjusted +/-, a separate site has put out their All-stars using the adjusted +/- metric and impact value.  Here's the explanation:

Based on our Adjusted +/- ratings and Impact ratings here are our all-star teams. A points rating of say +21 means that after adjusting for the players a player has played with and against the player in our estimation has added 21 points more per 48 minutes than an average NBA player to his team's performance level. A +10 offense rating  means that the player has added 10 points more per 48 minutes to his team's scoring than an average NBA offensive player . A -10 defense rating means a player has decreased the opponent'scoring by 10 points per 48 minutes more than an average NBA defensive player.

Impact weights time segments more when the game is on the line.  Anything over +30 is pretty good and over +50 is amazing.

With that, Deron Williams and Paul Millsap make the list.  Here are their values,

Player Position Points Offense Defense Impact
Millsap F 18 10 -8 37
Williams G 9 13 4 24


So Millsap adds 10 points more than an average player per 48 minutes at his position and hold opposing players to 8 points less than an average player.  This also shows that he's pretty clutch when the game is one the line.

Deron's +4 on the defensive end surprised me a bit.  I would have thought he would have had a negative number there.

  Every Ned scene (via SBs)

Groundhog day All the Ned scenes (via TheCableGuy0125)