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The Downbeat - 22 March 2011 - #451 - The Jazz Reloaded Edtion

The turnover for next season could be stunning. Here are the only guys under contract for next season that were here this time last season: Paul Millsap & CJ Miles.

CJ has a team option for $3.7M next season which the team should pick up. Millsap has a relatively cheap 2 years, $16.7 remaining on his deal. It's not out of the question though that either or both could be dealt. Assuming they're back though, here's our roster for next season:

Al Jefferson

Mehmet Okur

Devin Harris

Paul Millsap

Derrick Favors

CJ Miles (TO)

Raja Bell

Gordon Hayward

Jeremy Evans (TO)

That leaves a minimum of four players to be signed with the payroll for the Jazz already at $57M. With the new CBA coming, who knows what will be in store. Do those salaries get cut? Is there going to be a hard cap and what will the ramifications be for teams that are over it with their current players?

The Jazz are working hard to stabilize a team that's seen the most movement in the team's history. With the draft picks that we have and the moves that could be made, I don't think we see a stable core team for at least another season. With the lockout, there's going to be limited training camp and limited moves if the season is still played out. I don't think the Jazz are done making moves yet.

That means that the first season we could see the core guys really start working on a building season is 2012-13. Then how many more seasons after that before they become an established and playoff team?

There's never a good time for a lockout (at least for the fans), but the timing of this one could set the Jazz back a season or two.

I wish I knew where Fess' offense went this season. His defense and rebounding percentage have stayed the same over the past few seasons. His shooting percentage though have dropped off dramatically. He shots 58% in 2009 and 55% in 2010. This season he's not breaking 43%. That's the exact opposite of the contract year phenomenon.

He's getting the same amount of minutes and shots as he has in the past, he's just not converting them. He is taking slightly more shots from the outside, but he's also not finishing at the rim like he used to. He shot 76% and 66% at the rim the past two seasons but is hitting on just 58% of those attempts this year. It could be that's he's trying to create his own shot down low as his percentage of shots assisted down there has dropped from about 73% to only 57%.

If the Jazz want to keep Fess, I don't think they do though, he would come very cheap as he hasn't done anything for other teams to throw money at him. My ceiling for Fess was a serviceable backup that could come in and help defensively. He still could, but I don't think it will be with the Jazz.

Now that we're going to become draft experts, here are some key dates coming up:

April 24: Last day to declare for the draft.
June 13: Early draft withdrawal deadline. Players can test the waters and still back out.
June 23: NBA Draft in Newark because of MSG renovations.

"Everything else is just hot air." Amazing that a flick of a tiny piece of plastic in your show can propel a 265 lb player so much.

Tuesday poll....