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NBA Draft Lotto Odds: Golden State has better chance to give up pick than win lotto

Say what you will about Golden State Warriors Head Coach suggesting before this last season that his team would make the playoffs . . . and say what you will about how he let his team from being in the thick of things in the playoff chase down to the middle of the lottery . . . but you can't deny the fact that Mark Jackson is kind of a jerk.

Well, here's how the cookie crumbles, er, how the lotto balls work.


(Thanks Wikipedia!)

The Warriors will keep their pick if they either win the lotto and jump up to one of the Top 3 picks (12.7% chance), or retain their spot (60.0% chance). Of course, they'll relinquish their pick to us if a team leapfrogs them and pushes them down to #8 or worse. As the chart shows, there's a 27.4% chance that happens.

Which is think is pretty fair. We can take Golden State's #1st round lotto pick next year if we don't get it this year. It doesn't vanish into think air if we don't get it. It's not like the amnesty rules or all those trade exemptions we get. No, those things do expire and vanish into thin air. So, in closing. Mark Jackson is a jerk, and we have assets to use even if we don't get in the lottery from this pick.