Making the All-NBA Team doesn't happen by accident

I'm insane, because I see the obvious problem with our team being that . . . well . . . our best players (Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Devin Harris) just aren't good enough to carry a team in the playoffs. They all worked very hard and they are all super awesome people whom we love as fans of the team they all currently play for. But let's not confuse being likable with being good enough. Next season Paul and Devin will both be making second banana money (between $8m and 9m). That's fine. Al Jefferson is going to be making $15 million though, which is serious money in this new NBA. Especially for a small market team. As a result, Big Al needs to really improve on a number of problem points. Still, I think it's fair to say that all of our top guys are better suited to being 3rd or 4th best guys. Not 1st or 2nd best guys.

Who are the 1st or 2nd best guys, in a legit sense? Those would be the guys who make the All-NBA Teams. Not every team gets one, as we were blanked again. And not all teams that have one only have one. We know this first hand because we enjoyed the John Stockton / Karl Malone years. I think you can't seriously win in the league without at least two all-NBA guys. And we have none. I already went over how you get one . . . and I don't want to repeat myself. Instead I wanted to break down the All-NBA Team members. Are there common threads that we can see?

Well, the vast majority of them are first round draft picks, and the vast majority of those being lottery picks. The second thing, besides being drafted high, is that they are usually 'great' players at the NBA level. Duh. What makes you a great player? Production. What helps you produce? Confidence / being secure in your talents. How do you get this self-assurance? By having first hand experience at the NBA level. You feel confident in your ability to defend without fouling if you've done it a million times against NBA players. If you act nervous, and jumpy on defense the ref is going to call you for a foul - even if you didn't foul. Confidence is what makes you perform well. And if you are able to perform well you are a great player. If you are great, you get on the All-NBA Team. If you are on this team, you can help your team advance in the playoffs.

So, what's a great way to gain this first hand experience, this confidence in your game and your abilities? Oh, by getting playing time.

Homework:

Some insiders may say folksy 'drill-baby drill' sayings that play well on the radio but have no actual quantitative value. I did my homework. There are three All-NBA teams a year: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd team. Each team has 5 members -- so for each year there are 15 spots to be filled by worthy (or unworthy) players. So in the last 15 seasons there have been 225 spots. Because some players have been selected to more than just one All-NBA Team you're not going to get a list of 225 players. Instead these 225 spots have been held by a grand total of 71 different players.

This group of 71 players is for the 2011-2012 All-NBA Teams all the way back to the 1997-1998 All-NBA teams. And the data from this group of 71 players is not cherry picked data. It's all the data. So you get every All-NBA player from Al Horford down to Zach Randolph. You'll get #1 picks like Yao Ming, and undrafted guys like Ben Wallace. And you'll get guys who played 5.8 mpg as a rookie like Michael Redd, and guys who played 40.1 mpg as a rookie like Allen Iverson.

And the data isn't just for their rookie seasons, we look at each of their first five seasons, and then also their cumulative five year totals.

It's a long list of players, and instead of typing it all out I'll just direct you to Basketball-Reference.com to see the full list. That's where I got the data from. I did my homework. And my homework checks out.

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The aggregate Minutes values:

• Rookie Year: 29.2 mpg
• Second Year: 33.4 mpg
• Third Year: 35.9 mpg
• Fourth Year: 36.1 mpg
• Fifth Year: 36.7 mpg
• Cumulative five year: 34.2 mpg

Instances = 225

Players = 71

NBA Seasons = 15

Total Games = 24,773

* Blake Griffin only has 2 of 5 years worth of data

** Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, and Russell Westbrook only have 4 of 5 years worth of data

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The Frequency:

Did you know that out of this list of 71 players, the last 225 All-NBA Team members, that they all pretty much got playing time from the get-go? They did. In their rookie years only 20 of 71 didn't play half a game (24.0 mpg) in each game they played. And of those 20, only 10 didn't play 24.0 mpg in their second seasons. And that number reduces to 3 in their third year. In fact there are only three players out of 71 who have five year cumulative totals of less than 24.0 mpg, and they are Andrew Bynum (drafted at age 17, and his is at 23.6 mpg), Jermaine O'Neal (draft at age 18, and is is at 16.8 mpg), and Ben Wallace (undrafted guy whose five year average if also 23.6 mpg).

All-NBA Team members pretty much all just ended up playing more as younger players -- and they banked that experience and confidence to become increasingly productive players. And when the going got tough, they'd make a withdrawl from their bank of experience - which helped them overcome obstacles. It's no doubt that these guys are All-NBA players, they played in a lot of games and played a lot of minutes. It's not rocket science. It's hands on training. No one learned how to ride a bike by watching other people ride a bike. No one learned how to perform open heart surgery like a boss by watching guys do it. If you want to be great, you gotta get on the floor. If you want your young guys to be great, you work your roster so they don't have anyone ahead of them.

Example: When the Lakers found out how good Kobe was they moved Eddie Jones pronto -- and his MPG went from 15.5 mpg to 26.0 mpg to 37.0 mpg. Oh, don't worry, it's exactly the same thing the Jazz did to Adrian Dantley when we found out how good Karl Malone was.

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I did not set up a null hypothesis to disprove:

But it's not like I can test against a soggy over-dipped cookie. Especially since I never heard any numbers thrown out. But 29.2 mpg, 33.4 mpg, 35.9 mpg, 36.1 mpg, and 36.7 mpg seem to say one thing. And that's if one of the major factors for becoming an All-NBA player is consistent EARLY minutes (and don't give me that made up construct of meaningful minutes -- Michael Jordan and Dwyane Wade didn't have many early on but they lead their teams to rings) -- then we're doing our current young players wrong. We're not giving them the chance to prove if they can be All-NBA players. And if we drafted guys who don't deserve big mins then the fault isn't on the players, but on our front office for failing in their draft selection.

"You just can't give young guys playing time they don't earn."

Well, you shouldn't also just keep young guys on the bench just because they're young. I already went over how John Stockton's production and efficiency in his ROOKIE and Soph year were just as good as in his fourth year. He could have started earlier. The only thing you accomplish by taking your lotto picks and putting them on the remedial development path is that you are screwing them over, making sure they have a less expensive first non-rookie contract -- and you also make your team lose more games while you kill yourself trying to find 27 mpg for Raja Bell and Josh Howard. Also, in this new NBA where players seem to pick who they play for, you also piss them off and make your own team look less attractive.

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Our kids vs. the 225 last All-NBA Team selections:

How do our kids stack up, in terms of minutes?

Well, I'm happy to report that Gordon Hayward made a big, necessary jump (thanks to the injuries to Raja Bell and Josh Howard). He played 91.3% of the minutes he should have been playing. Favors? only 63.5%. The other two guys, Alec Burks and Enes Kanter, are way below the grade. I can't expect Enes to play 33 mpg next year, but Alec needs to play at least 28 mpg (which puts him behind still). And yeah, Gordon and Favors need to both play 36+ mpg next year. And our front office should make the necessary moves to free up that time for them. Period.

Or else you know what'll happen? It won't be an accident if NONE of our lottery picks ever become All-NBA Team selections -- and that we'll never really advance in the playoffs to the heights that we advanced to before. It's more than just a minutes thing, it's a trust thing. I trust that our Front office drafted / traded for the right guys. It's up to the coach to trust in their abilities. And it's up to the players to get the minutes in order to bank that confidence so that they'll be high level performers.

Kanter's only going to have confidence in his mid-range jumper if he's seen it go in, during games. Hayward's only going to have confidence in his three in the same way. Burks is only going to have confidence on defense if he's defended other guys through screens and off the bounce -- and not fouled. And Favors is only going to have the confidence to dominate if that thing clicks in him mind where he knows he's better than everyone else on the floor - and just goes up to dunk on guys.

These are my conclusions based upon being a cognitive behaviorist, and a mathematician who looked at the minutes numbers. Sure, some guys ended up playing little in their first 5 years who still made it to the All-NBA Team. But the other 68 of the 71 guys did not. They got the minutes. They got the experience. They got the banked confidence. And they performed well enough to help their team win games. And we saw our Top three guys were unable to do that in the playoffs.

I'm not hating. I love all the guys on the team not named Raja and Josh. I'm just pointing out facts. If you want to disagree with me do it based on facts. Our future can be brighter than our present if we see the gems we have and polish them.

That's a better analogy than cookies. Gems take time, you have to put the work in, and then they become both brilliant and priceless in rare cases. Lottery picks are gems. And we have four.

Fix the problem. Only an idiot doesn't know how to eat cookies w/o making them soggy. Don't be an idiot. Play the younger guys if you want them to be future All-NBA Team members, and thus, capable of helping our team advance deep in the playoffs.

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Data Set:

All-NBA		Rookie Year				2nd Year				3rd Year				4th Year				5th Year				Five Year Totals
Players	Teams	Mins	G	MPG		Mins	G	MPG		Mins	G	MPG		Mins	G	MPG		Mins	G	MPG		Mins	G	MPG
Al Horford	1	2540	81	31.4	.	2242	67	33.5	.	2845	81	35.1	.	2704	77	35.1	.	348	11	31.6	.	10679	317	33.7
Allen Iverson	7	3045	76	40.1	.	3150	80	39.4	.	1990	48	41.5	.	2853	70	40.8	.	2979	71	42.0	.	14017	345	40.6
Alonzo Mourning	2	2644	78	33.9	.	2018	60	33.6	.	2941	77	38.2	.	2671	70	38.2	.	2320	65	35.7	.	12594	350	36.0
Amare Stoudemire	5	2570	82	31.3	.	2025	55	36.8	.	2889	80	36.1	.	50	3	16.7	.	2689	82	32.8	.	10223	302	33.9
Andrew Bogut	1	2348	82	28.6	.	2258	66	34.2	.	2720	78	34.9	.	1124	36	31.2	.	2229	69	32.3	.	10679	331	32.3
Andrew Bynum	1	338	46	7.3	.	1793	82	21.9	.	1008	35	28.8	.	1446	50	28.9	.	1977	65	30.4	.	6562	278	23.6
Antonio McDyess	1	2280	76	30.0	.	2565	74	34.7	.	2441	81	30.1	.	1937	50	38.7	.	2698	81	33.3	.	11921	362	32.9
Baron Davis	1	1523	82	18.6	.	3192	82	38.9	.	3318	82	40.5	.	1889	50	37.8	.	2686	67	40.1	.	12608	363	34.7
Ben Wallace	5	197	34	5.8	.	1124	67	16.8	.	1231	46	26.8	.	1959	81	24.2	.	2760	80	34.5	.	7271	308	23.6
Blake Griffin	1	3112	82	38.0	.	2392	66	36.2	.			#DIV/0!	.			#DIV/0!	.			#DIV/0!	.	5504	148	37.2
Brandon Roy	2	2015	57	35.4	.	2792	74	37.7	.	2903	78	37.2	.	2419	65	37.2	.	1310	47	27.9	.	11439	321	35.6
Carlos Boozer	1	2049	81	25.3	.	2592	75	34.6	.	1772	51	34.7	.	1025	33	31.1	.	2557	74	34.6	.	9995	314	31.8
Carmelo Anthony	5	2995	82	36.5	.	2608	75	34.8	.	2941	80	36.8	.	2486	65	38.2	.	2806	77	36.4	.	13836	379	36.5
Chauncey Billups	3	2216	80	27.7	.	1488	45	33.1	.	305	13	23.5	.	1790	77	23.2	.	2355	82	28.7	.	8154	297	27.5
Chris Bosh	1	2510	75	33.5	.	3017	81	37.2	.	2751	70	39.3	.	2658	69	38.5	.	2425	67	36.2	.	13361	362	36.9
Chris Paul	4	2808	78	36.0	.	2353	64	36.8	.	3006	80	37.6	.	3002	78	38.5	.	1712	45	38.0	.	12881	345	37.3
Chris Webber	5	2438	76	32.1	.	2067	54	38.3	.	558	15	37.2	.	2806	72	39.0	.	2809	71	39.6	.	10678	288	37.1
David Robinson	3	3002	82	36.6	.	3095	82	37.7	.	2564	68	37.7	.	3211	82	39.2	.	3242	80	40.5	.	15114	394	38.4
Deron Williams	2	2307	80	28.8	.	2950	80	36.9	.	3059	82	37.3	.	2505	68	36.8	.	2802	76	36.9	.	13623	386	35.3
Derrick Rose	1	3000	81	37.0	.	2871	78	36.8	.	3026	81	37.4	.	1375	39	35.3	.			#DIV/0!	.	10272	279	36.8
Dikembe Mutombo	3	2716	71	38.3	.	3029	82	36.9	.	2853	82	34.8	.	3100	82	37.8	.	2713	74	36.7	.	14411	391	36.9
Dirk Nowitzki	12	958	47	20.4	.	2938	82	35.8	.	3125	82	38.1	.	2891	76	38.0	.	3117	80	39.0	.	13029	367	35.5
Dwight Howard	7	2670	82	32.6	.	3121	82	38.1	.	3023	82	36.9	.	3088	82	37.7	.	2821	79	35.7	.	14723	407	36.2
Dwyane Wade	6	2126	61	34.9	.	2974	77	38.6	.	2892	75	38.6	.	1931	51	37.9	.	1954	51	38.3	.	11877	315	37.7
Eddie Jones	1	1981	64	31.0	.	2184	70	31.2	.	2998	80	37.5	.	2910	80	36.4	.	1881	50	37.6	.	11954	344	34.8
Elton Brand	1	2999	81	37.0	.	2906	74	39.3	.	3020	80	37.8	.	2454	62	39.6	.	2670	69	38.7	.	14049	366	38.4
Gary Payton	5	2244	82	27.4	.	2549	81	31.5	.	2548	82	31.1	.	2881	82	35.1	.	3015	82	36.8	.	13237	409	32.4
Gilbert Arenas	3	1155	47	24.6	.	2866	82	35.0	.	2066	55	37.6	.	3274	80	40.9	.	3384	80	42.3	.	12745	344	37.0
Glen Rice	1	2311	77	30.0	.	2646	77	34.4	.	3007	79	38.1	.	3082	82	37.6	.	2999	81	37.0	.	14045	396	35.5
Grant Hill	3	2678	70	38.3	.	3260	80	40.8	.	3147	80	39.3	.	3294	81	40.7	.	1852	50	37.0	.	14231	361	39.4
Hakeem Olajuwon	1	2914	82	35.5	.	2467	68	36.3	.	2760	75	36.8	.	2825	79	35.8	.	3024	82	36.9	.	13990	386	36.2
Jamal Mashburn	1	2896	79	36.7	.	2980	80	37.3	.	667	18	37.1	.	2164	69	31.4	.	1729	48	36.0	.	10436	294	35.5
Jason Kidd	6	2668	79	33.8	.	3034	81	37.5	.	1967	55	35.8	.	3118	82	38.0	.	2060	50	41.2	.	12847	347	37.0
Jermaine O'Neal	3	458	45	10.2	.	808	60	13.5	.	310	35	8.9	.	659	70	9.4	.	2641	81	32.6	.	4876	291	16.8
Joe Johnson	1	1916	77	24.9	.	2255	82	27.5	.	3331	82	40.6	.	3240	82	39.5	.	3340	82	40.7	.	14082	405	34.8
John Stockton	1	1490	82	18.2	.	1935	82	23.6	.	1858	82	22.7	.	2842	82	34.7	.	3171	82	38.7	.	11296	410	27.6
Karl Malone	4	2475	81	30.6	.	2857	82	34.8	.	3198	82	39.0	.	3126	80	39.1	.	3122	82	38.1	.	14778	407	36.3
Kevin Durant	3	2768	80	34.6	.	2885	74	39.0	.	3239	82	39.5	.	3038	78	38.9	.	2546	66	38.6	.	14476	380	38.1
Kevin Garnett	9	2293	80	28.7	.	2995	77	38.9	.	3222	82	39.3	.	1780	47	37.9	.	3243	81	40.0	.	13533	367	36.9
Kevin Love	1	2048	81	25.3	.	1714	60	28.6	.	2611	73	35.8	.	2145	55	39.0	.			#DIV/0!	.	8518	269	31.7
Kobe Bryant	14	1103	71	15.5	.	2056	79	26.0	.	1896	50	37.9	.	2524	66	38.2	.	2783	68	40.9	.	10362	334	31.0
LaMarcus Aldridge	1	1392	63	22.1	.	2649	76	34.9	.	3004	81	37.1	.	2922	78	37.5	.	3211	81	39.6	.	13178	379	34.8
LeBron James	8	3122	79	39.5	.	3388	80	42.4	.	3361	79	42.5	.	3190	78	40.9	.	3027	75	40.4	.	16088	391	41.1
Manu Ginobili	2	1431	69	20.7	.	2260	77	29.4	.	2193	74	29.6	.	1813	65	27.9	.	2060	75	27.5	.	9757	360	27.1
Michael Jordan	1	3144	82	38.3	.	451	18	25.1	.	3281	82	40.0	.	3311	82	40.4	.	3255	81	40.2	.	13442	345	39.0
Michael Redd	1	35	6	5.8	.	1417	67	21.1	.	2316	82	28.2	.	3021	82	36.8	.	2848	75	38.0	.	9637	312	30.9
Mitch Richmond	1	2717	79	34.4	.	2799	78	35.9	.	3027	77	39.3	.	3095	80	38.7	.	1728	45	38.4	.	13366	359	37.2
Pau Gasol	3	3007	82	36.7	.	2948	82	36.0	.	2458	78	31.5	.	1790	56	32.0	.	3135	80	39.2	.	13338	378	35.3
Paul Pierce	4	1632	48	34.0	.	2583	73	35.4	.	3120	82	38.0	.	3302	82	40.3	.	3096	79	39.2	.	13733	364	37.7
Peja Stojakovic	1	1025	48	21.4	.	1749	74	23.6	.	2905	75	38.7	.	2649	71	37.3	.	2450	72	34.0	.	10778	340	31.7
Rajon Rondo	1	1831	78	23.5	.	2306	77	29.9	.	2642	80	33.0	.	2963	81	36.6	.	2527	68	37.2	.	12269	384	32.0
Ray Allen	2	2532	82	30.9	.	3287	82	40.1	.	1719	50	34.4	.	3070	82	37.4	.	3129	82	38.2	.	13737	378	36.3
Reggie Miller	1	1840	82	22.4	.	2536	74	34.3	.	3192	82	38.9	.	2972	82	36.2	.	3120	82	38.0	.	13660	402	34.0
Rod Strickland	1	1358	81	16.8	.	2140	82	26.1	.	2076	58	35.8	.	2053	57	36.0	.	2474	78	31.7	.	10101	356	28.4
Metta World Peace	1	2238	72	31.1	.	2363	76	31.1	.	1642	55	29.9	.	2317	69	33.6	.	2714	73	37.2	.	11274	345	32.7
Russell Westbrook	2	2668	82	32.5	.	2813	82	34.3	.	2847	82	34.7	.	2331	66	35.3	.			#DIV/0!	.	10659	312	34.2
Sam Cassell	1	1122	66	17.0	.	1882	82	23.0	.	1682	61	27.6	.	1714	61	28.1	.	2606	75	34.7	.	9006	345	26.1
Scottie Pippen	1	1650	79	20.9	.	2413	73	33.1	.	3148	82	38.4	.	3014	82	36.8	.	3164	82	38.6	.	13389	398	33.6
Shaquille O'Neal	10	3071	81	37.9	.	3224	81	39.8	.	2923	79	37.0	.	1946	54	36.0	.	1941	51	38.1	.	13105	346	37.9
Shawn Marion	2	1260	51	24.7	.	2857	79	36.2	.	3109	81	38.4	.	3373	81	41.6	.	3217	79	40.7	.	13816	371	37.2
Stephon Marbury	2	2324	67	34.7	.	3112	82	38.0	.	1895	49	38.7	.	2881	74	38.9	.	2557	67	38.2	.	12769	339	37.7
Steve Nash	7	684	65	10.5	.	1664	76	21.9	.	1269	40	31.7	.	1532	56	27.4	.	2387	70	34.1	.	7536	307	24.5
Tim Duncan	13	3204	82	39.1	.	1963	50	39.3	.	2875	74	38.9	.	3174	82	38.7	.	3329	82	40.6	.	14545	370	39.3
Tim Hardaway	2	2663	79	33.7	.	3215	82	39.2	.	3332	81	41.1	.	2609	66	39.5	.	2321	62	37.4	.	14140	370	38.2
Tony Parker	2	2267	77	29.4	.	2774	82	33.8	.	2577	75	34.4	.	2735	80	34.2	.	2715	80	33.9	.	13068	394	33.2
Tracy McGrady	7	1179	64	18.4	.	1106	49	22.6	.	2462	79	31.2	.	3087	77	40.1	.	2912	76	38.3	.	10746	345	31.1
Tyson Chandler	1	1389	71	19.6	.	1827	75	24.4	.	782	35	22.3	.	2189	80	27.4	.	2121	79	26.8	.	8308	340	24.4
Vin Baker	1	2560	82	31.2	.	3361	82	41.0	.	3319	82	40.5	.	3159	78	40.5	.	2944	82	35.9	.	15343	406	37.8
Vince Carter	2	1760	50	35.2	.	3126	82	38.1	.	2979	75	39.7	.	2385	60	39.8	.	1471	43	34.2	.	11721	310	37.8
Yao Ming	5	2382	82	29.0	.	2692	82	32.8	.	2447	80	30.6	.	1949	57	34.2	.	1624	48	33.8	.	11094	349	31.8
Zach Randolph	1	238	41	5.8	.	1301	77	16.9	.	3067	81	37.9	.	1603	46	34.8	.	2545	74	34.4	.	8754	319	27.4