Statistical Analysis: Marvin Williams, Josh Howard, C.J. Miles, and Andrei Kirilenko (2009-10 to Present day)

The Utah Jazz made two trades, and may have also settled the fate of a number of Jazz free agents. Jazz Gm Kevin O'Connor moved a trade exception (Mehmet Okur trade) for the Los Angeles Clippers Mo Williams; and then moved Devin Harris to the Atlanta Hawks for (at the very least) Marvin Williams. Two wings from last season are Unrestricted Free Agents: C.J. Miles and Josh Howard. Furthermore, the Jazz still own Andrei Kirilenko's bird rights. Kirilenko, Miles, and Howard were all wings that have played playoff games for the team. They appear to be effectively replaced by the addition of Marvin Williams.

How do they all measure against one another? Well, I did a simple statistical analysis of their play over the last three seasons. Furthermore, I also look at their most recently completed season as well. So the following numbers will include a value that is the aggregate sum (or average where necessary) from 2009-10 season till the 2011-12 season. And some of the numbers will just be from last season.

Situation:

Why am I even discussing Marvin and his performance with that of two former All-Stars in Andrei and Josh, and a career bench guy in C.J.? Well, I guess it starts with the fact that they all have (or will have) been guys to start for the Jazz. Or alternatively, come off the bench for the Jazz. These dudes, if on the Jazz today, would have to be content with 20-30 mins a game -- mostly off the bench. Marvin IS the dude who'll be on the team next year for sure. CJ may be going to Dallas. Josh to who knows where. Andrei . . . well, I guess New Jersey? Miami? I really can't say.

Marvin looks to be the guy to take the lion's share of the minutes that (presumably) Josh and C.J. will be leaving on the table. He's a very interesting player because he's big (6'8, 245 lb), but still a wing. So he's Andrei's height, but with the appropriate muscle mass for a man his size. He used to be crazy athletic, but he doesn't have that closing speed or extension that Kirilenko has. Josh Howard is also pretty long. The numbers on Marvin is that he DOES have a 7'3.5" wingspan. So, well, I'm happy with that.

I'll go into the qualitative analysis later, but right now, the situation is that Marvin is in. He's in over Andrei, Josh, and C.J. Let's look at the quantitative numbers from last year, and the last three years.

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The Numbers:

						Percentages				Per Game				Advanced				Passing				Other
		G	MPG	PPG		FG%	FT%	3PT%		FGA	FTA	3PTM		PPS	MPS	eFG%		APG	TOPG	A:TO		RPG	SPG	BPG
Marvin	2009-2012	203	28.7	10.2	.	44.9%	81.9%	34.5%	.	8.7	2.6	0.7	.	1.17	3.29	49.0%	.	1.2	0.9	1.5	.	4.9	0.7	0.4
Williams	Last Season	57	26.3	10.2	.	43.2%	78.8%	38.9%	.	8.2	2.6	1.0	.	1.23	3.19	49.4%	.	1.2	0.7	1.8	.	4.8	0.8	0.3
Josh	2009-2012	96	24.1	10.1	.	39.6%	75.3%	24.1%	.	9.5	2.9	0.4	.	1.06	2.54	41.8%	.	1.3	1.2	1.0	.	3.7	0.7	0.3
Howard	Last Season	43	23.0	8.7	.	39.9%	77.3%	24.3%	.	8.4	2.3	0.2	.	1.03	2.75	41.1%	.	1.2	1.2	0.9	.	3.7	0.7	0.2
C.J.	2009-2012	197	23.4	10.8	.	40.7%	78.0%	32.4%	.	9.8	2.2	1.2	.	1.11	2.39	46.7%	.	1.6	1.2	1.4	.	2.7	0.9	0.4
Miles	Last Season	56	20.4	9.1	.	38.1%	79.4%	30.7%	.	8.3	2.4	0.8	.	1.09	2.46	43.0%	.	1.2	0.9	1.3	.	2.1	0.8	0.3
Andrei	2009-2011*	139	30.1	12.1	.	49.1%	75.8%	34.9%	.	8.3	4.3	0.6	.	1.45	3.61	52.6%	.	2.8	1.6	1.8	.	5.2	1.4	1.3
Kirilenko	Last Seas*	17	29.9	14.1	.	53.3%	75.8%	41.7%	.	7.9	5.8	1.2	.	1.77	3.77	60.7%	.	2.4	1.5	1.6	.	7.5	1.5	1.9

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What this says:

What this says, clearly, is that Andrei Kirilenko is still the best player. (And I separated his Euro stats from this last year from his NBA stats, and his NBA stats are STILL superior) There is no way that Andrei is going to come to Utah as his asking price will be much higher than what the team would be willing to spend.

Beyond Kirilenko-philia, it does also show that Marvin is pretty good. He is #2 ranked in mins, PPG, fg%, 3pt%, FTA/game, PPS, eFG%, assists to turn over ratio, rebounds, and blocks. He's #1 in FT%. Being second best in basically everything when the top guy is, well, a borderline HOF guy (a few more big international tournament wins and he's in as a Euro player).

He shot great from deep last year, and still managed to get to the line about 3 times a game. He is a very efficient scorer (as his PPS last season was above average), and did not turn the ball over. More than that, he is better than Josh at what Josh was good at (rebounds), and made more threes per game than C.J. did (that thing C.J. was supposed to be great at).

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Shot Locations (2011-12):

Well, there's no Data for Andrei for this, and that sucks because I'd have loved to have seen his shot distributions per location. I was going to show this graphically but decided against it. More tables!

Shot Location		Marvin Williams					Josh Howard					C.J. Miles
		FGM	FGA	%	FGA/Gm		FGM	FGA	%	FGA/Gm		FGM	FGA	%	FGA/Gm
Above the break three	.	25	69	36.2%	1.2	.	6	29	20.7%	0.7	.	37	116	31.9%	2.1
Corner three	.	32	79	40.5%	1.4	.	3	7	42.9%	0.2	.	9	31	29.0%	0.6
Mid-Range	.	47	132	35.6%	2.3	.	59	178	33.1%	4.1	.	28	106	26.4%	1.9
In the Paint	.	9	24	37.5%	0.4	.	22	59	37.3%	1.4	.	19	66	28.8%	1.2
Restricted Area	.	89	165	53.9%	2.9	.	54	87	62.1%	2.0	.	84	143	58.7%	2.6
Total	.	202	469	43.1%	8.2	.	144	360	40.0%	8.4	.	177	462	38.3%	8.3
Free Throws	.	115	146	78.8%	2.6	.	75	97	77.3%	2.3	.	108	136	79.4%	2.4

Well, CJ took a lot of threes. Josh took a lot of mid-range jumpers. Marvin got a lot of shots up near the rim. I like how Marvin does do well from that Corner spot (dare I say it -- another one of those Tier III three point shooters? We need those!). More than just shooting, that's important is making shots.

Marvin was #1 in mid-range %, in the paint, and over-all from three. He was #2 in FT% as well. Good stuff Marvin.

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Defense:

Here are the defensive rankings and stats from MySynergySports.com. You should check them out. They are the best. anyway . . . this is broken down into Isolation, Hand Off, Pick and Roll, Off of Screens, Spot ups, Post ups, and overall.

Play Type	Player	# of Def Pos	% of time on D		PPP	NBA Rank	Opp. FG%
Isolation	M.Williams	84	21.0%	.	0.84	226	36.4%
	C.J.Miles	53	15.5%	.	0.72	102	28.6%
	J.Howard	50	17.2%	.	0.76	134	39.5%
Hand Off	M.Williams	22	5.5%	.	0.64	-	28.6%
	C.J.Miles	16	4.7%	.	0.81	-	38.5%
	J.Howard	17	5.8%	.	0.82	-	43.8%
P&R Ball Handler	M.Williams	47	11.8%	.	0.62	20	28.2%
	C.J.Miles	50	14.7%	.	1.04	217	51.3%
	J.Howard	63	21.6%	.	0.97	206	61.0%
P&R Roll Man	M.Williams	11	2.8%	.	0.64	-	27.3%
	C.J.Miles	15	4.4%	.	0.87	-	41.7%
	J.Howard	10	3.4%	.	0.60	-	33.3%
Play Type	Player	# of Def Pos	% of time on D		PPP	NBA Rank	Opp. FG%
Off Screen	M.Williams	51	12.8%	.	1.00	125	45.7%
	C.J.Miles	56	16.4%	.	0.82	52	39.1%
	J.Howard	31	10.7%	.	1.26	169	51.7%
Spot-Up	M.Williams	119	29.8%	.	1.00	251	41.3%
	C.J.Miles	115	33.7%	.	0.91	147	33.3%
	J.Howard	90	30.9%	.	0.74	31	28.0%
Post-Up	M.Williams	66	16.5%	.	0.74	65	37.3%
	C.J.Miles	33	9.7%	.	0.82	123	46.2%
	J.Howard	30	10.3%	.	1.00	238	46.2%
Overall	M.Williams	400	100.0%	.	0.86	239	37.5%
	C.J.Miles	341	100.0%	.	0.86	239	38.1%
	J.Howard	291	100.0%	.	0.88	279	41.6%

The average rankings on defense are: CJ#146.7, Marvin #154.4, and Josh #176.2. So, even though no one will believe it, CJ is much better on defense than people give him credit for. Overall, Josh was the worst. Marvin faced the most defensive possessions. He was the worst when being isolated against. But he was solid against hand offs, and pick and rolls (ball handler or roll man). Miles was one of the best in the NBA against guys off of screens, and Josh against guys spotting up. Marvin was one of the best wings against post ups.

I'm more interested in wings defending Spot ups and Off screens than post ups though. The fact that Marvin gets eaten alive off of isolations makes me worry. I don't know how he can be so good defending the ball handler on the pick and roll though, while being so poor off of isolations. Doesn't make sense. I'd say Marvin is better at defending SF/PFs, while the other two are better at defending SF/SGs. CJ in particular. He will be missed, even if most fans did not see his positive contributions.

While Marvin isn't a lock down defender, he is still a solid rebounder. We can always use defending rebounding from the wings. Marvin does help us here.

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Money:

Marvin makes over $8 million a year, and will make $7.5 million in 2013/14. That said, with the way money is going around this year, Andrei Kirilenko would be making a few million more on the open market. (If Caron Butler makes $8m a year, and Nicolas Batum will make like $11m . . . .Andrei isn't going to be any cheaper than he could be) Andrei is better, but there's no way we would have given him what he is worth.

Josh would be much cheaper, but he kinda sucks. The numbers back me up. Miles would be a bit more expensive, but I think the Jazz are done with him, for better or for worse. The Jazz needed to move Devin Harris because his camp was unhappy with the Mo Williams addition. Marvin was gained through the necessary subtraction. Is Marvin worth $8 million a year? I don't think so. Is $8 million a year too much to pay for a guy to come off the bench? Probably not in this new era of the NBA. Does that make it right? Nope.

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Well ?

Well, Andrei is still the best, but we already knew that. Marvin is interesting in that he rebounds and hits the corner three. He presents different challenges on defense, but he makes his free throws. More than anything, he creates allosteric competition for Josh Howard and a potential Josh Howard resigning. So, yeah, sign me up for that. Furthermore, we are no longer carrying four PGs who could actually still start. Good move KOC.

Marvin, welcome to the Jazz! (We're now only 3 players away from 2005 NBA Draft Top 5 Bingo)