The Downbeat: He's Nobody To Me Edition

Gotta give Ty credit if he saw this coming:

			Net (Per 100 Poss)
Rk	Lineup	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	PTS ▾	ORB	ORB%	DRB	DRB%	TRB	TRB%	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF
5	R. Foye | A. Jefferson | P. Millsap | E. Watson | M. Williams	46:50	+3.1	+1.0	+.032	-3.1	-4.1	-.076	+.012	+6.2	+4.1	+.208	+9.3	0.0	-0.6	-2.1	-0.6	-1.0	-2.6	+7.2	+6.2	+3.1	-4.1	-0.5
	Team Average	2766:00	-0.2	+1.0	-.008	-0.9	-1.8	-.011	-.013	+0.9	+0.3	+.024	-0.4	+0.8	+1.3	-0.1	+1.3	+0.4	+0.8	+2.3	+0.4	+0.6	0.0	+0.4
15	R. Foye | A. Jefferson | P. Millsap | J. Tinsley | M. Williams	453:48	-5.3	-4.0	-.037	+1.3	+2.6	+.014	-.029	+1.2	-1.1	+.101	-8.1	-5.2	-12.3	-7.0	-12.3	-6.2	-13.4	+1.3	+1.5	+1.1	-0.7	+1.6

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 2/26/2013.

Evidently, inserting Watson into that lineup actually jumpstarted the starting lineup. There actually is a statistical difference with that lineup. It actually fairs much better in almost every category except one: 3 Point Shooting. The passing actually flourishes in it and people are looking for better shots closer to the basket when Earl starts with that lineup. Now the important thing is to remember this is a tiny sample size 46 minutes to 453 minutes, but still promising signs. Another important thing is none of those individuals ended the game with a positive +/-.

Jefferson -13

Millsap -10

Ma. Williams -9

Randy Foye -3

Watson -11

So maybe they all had better games. Marvin Williams got in a better groove; he got to the basket more. Al dominated the offensive end. Watson sped up the tempo and got this lineup in transition more. That's great. But if you're still getting run out of the gym on a consistent basis then it's futile. We can defend these coaching choices or we can look at the data and see that there are certain players that allow the Jazz to outscore their opponents EVEN IF they have offensive deficiencies. I think we have enough data on this horrible foursome of Foye, Ma. Williams, Millsap, and Jefferson should not be seen on a court together. They are routinely outscored by 8.7 points a game and are the Jazz's 16th best 4 man lineup ... out of 20. Let's stop this madness.

Now if only Tyrone Corbin would start this lineup:

Yep. That lineup is better in almost EVERY statistical category. But, hey, you need a bench scorer rather than focusing on putting your team in a position to establish control. Experience, blah, blah.

When Tyrone Corbin was asked about this here's what he said. Thanks, Moni!

Q: Coach, this has been the second straight game where all of your starters were in the minus in the plus/minus–
Tyrone Corbin (interrupting): Whatever plus/minus is. However you want to look at it.
Q: Any thoughts on making changes to the starting lineup?
Corbin: I mixed it up tonight. Earl [Watson] started.
Q: Any thoughts on inserting Alec Burks or Gordon Hayward into the starting lineup?
Corbin: No.

The audio version is available here..

So allowing Ty to get credit for that lineup switch there is this loss to talk about. You just can't lose to teams on your home floor. You also can't lose to teams who are on the end of a back to back after playing the last two weeks on the road. You also can't lose to a .500 team. You also can't lose when you're in a fight for your playoff life when your upcoming stretch features the following minefield:

vs. Hawks

vs. Bobcats

@ Bucks

@ Cavaliers

@ Bulls (B2B)

@ Knicks (B2B)

vs Pistons

@ Thunder

vs Grizzlies

vs Knicks

@ Rockets

@ Spurs

@ Mavericks

This is how I see that stretch turning out:

vs. Hawks - Loss 0-1

vs. Bobcats - Win 1-1

@ Bucks - Win 2-1

@ Cavaliers - Loss 2-2

@ Bulls (B2B) - Loss 2-3

@ Knicks (B2B) - Loss 2-4

vs Pistons - Win 3-4

@ Thunder - Loss 3-5

vs Grizzlies Loss 3-6

vs Knicks Loss 3-7

@ Rockets Loss 3-8

@ Spurs Loss 3-9

@ Mavericks Loss 3-10

The most dreamlike of best scenarios is 5-8. That's giving up a possible 3 games if the Lakers go 8-5 in the next stretch. The Jazz could still make the playoffs but let's all stop assuming it's a done deal. This stretch is nightmarish. Basically what I'm saying is don't punch those playoff tickets just yet. There's still a lot of time and the Jazz's 3 1/2 game lead on the Lakers is not as big as you think.

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Forgotten in this close loss is how well a lot of players played.

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Great quote by Alec Burks after the game when asked about playing against All-Star Paul Pierce:

He’s nobody to me, you know? He made some shots. Everybody make shots, you know? It’s just he got a bigger name than everybody else.

Swaggy.

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Courtesy of @Monilogue:

via jazzfanatical.files.wordpress.com