(Past Mock Draft Round-ups: May 22, 2013, June 4, 2013 , June 18, 2013)
Okay we've been doing this every year for a while now, rounding up the mock drafts that we find on the net. Some of the websites have full-time draft guys. Some of the websites are purely run for the draft. What do you care about more, the specialist draft website that may not be as "big", or the big website that divides only a portion of their attention and talent to the draft? Is everyone on the same footing? The big boys and the independent sources? << TBJ "we don't know" drop here >> Whatever the case may be I've scoured the Internet for the Top 25 NBA Mock Drafts, some of the names here you'll immediately recognize. Some of the names here only show up because of their Google SEO prowess. Whatever the case may be in such an open and unpredictable draft as this one -- their guess is as good as any.
Just a note, this is going to be the last Mock Draft Roundup for the year, even though most of these sites are going to update later on today, tomorrow, and the day of the draft. (Well, unless there are big chances I won't update, let's put it like that) Why will it be the last Mock Draft Roundup of the year? Well, because I will be flying out to Brooklyn for the NBA Draft to cover it with a few other guys you may have heard of (Mike Prada, etc) as a team of SB Nation Draft gurus. I will be covering stuff for SLC Dunk, but I will be there under the auspices of SB Nation, so my coverage will be not just Jazz fixated. It would be a good time to follow me on twitter if you haven't yet -- I'll be tweeting picks from behind the scenes at the draft: @AllThatAmar -- anyway, now on with the show!
First round, Pick #14
|Mock Draft||Author||Date||Round 1, Pick 14|
|1||Bleacher Report||J. Wasserman||June||24||2013||Shane Larkin||G||Miami|
|5||Dime Magazine||Unknown||June||17||2013||Dennis Schroeder||G||Germany|
|6||Draft Express||J.Givony||June||18||2013||Mason Plumlee||C||Duke|
|8||ESPN||Secret Big Board||June||24||2013||Steven Adams (tie)||/||Kentavious Caldwell-Pope|
|11||NBA . Com||S.Howard-Cooper||June||20||2013||Dennis Schroeder||G||Germany|
|12||NBA . Com||Consensus||June||24||2013||Kelly Olynyk||C||Gonzaga|
|13||NBA Draft . Net||Unknown||June||24||2013||Shabazz Muhammad||F||UCLA|
|14||NBA Draft Insider||K.Habbas||June||17||2013||Shabazz Muhammad||F||UCLA|
|17||SB Nation||J.Tjarks||June||24||2013||Dennis Schroeder||G||Germany|
|18||Sheridan Hoops||J.Kotoch||June||24||2013||Kelly Olynyk||C||Gonzaga|
|19||Slam Magazine||C.Mordi||June||11||2013||Shane Larkin||G||Syracuse|
|20||Sporting News||S.Deveney||June||17||2013||Michael Carter-Williams||G||Syracuse|
|21||Sports Illustrated||C.Mannix||June||19||2013||Dennis Schroeder||G||Germany|
|22||Spreecast||Strouf / Hensley||June||24||2013||Shabazz Muhammad||F||UCLA|
|23||The Hoops Report||R.Feldman||June||16||2013||Shane Larkin||G||Syracuse|
|24||USA Today||E.C.Anderson||June||25||2013||Shane Larkin||G||Syracuse|
|25||WalterFootball.com||P.Banks / D.Kay||June||25||2013||Lucas Noguiera||C||Brazil|
I'm certain that a few of these guys are going to update their drafts either today or tomorrow (Givony of Draft Express and Ford of ESPN being the biggies), and some of these guys just aren't going to be updating at all (Goodman of CBS, and Mordi of Slam Magazine). As a result the results you get from pouring over this data will be mixed, indeed. Regardless of that, if you do see the overwhelming majority has us going for a PG (Larkin 9, Schroeder 6, Carter-Williams 1). That's 16 / 26 right there (26 and not 25 because there was a tie in the ESPN Secret Big Board). That's 3 / 5, or 60%. If we slip past need, and go full-on to best player available conventional wisdom shines and we take either a big or a wing.
The big who jumped the most on peoples' boards is Lucas Noguiera (Bebe) from Brazil. (Like Pele, or Nene) We haven't seen much of him, at all. But he's big. He's athletic. And you can't teach height. A couple of other bigs that we do have much more data on make appearances here as well: Olynyk, Plumlee, and Adams. The "Sound of Music" issue comes up though at #14 in a BPA strategy -- specifically: "How do you solve a problem like Shabazz Muhammad?"
If we're being honest with ourselves Bazz is a Top 15 "talent" in this draft. We may not like him for a lot of reasons. But by the same doctrine that had us pick Kosta Koufos over Serge Ibaka or Nicolas Batum should tie our hands down to Bazz if he drops to us. Unless, of course, our team is ready to move on from the mistakes of the past and let Dennis Lindsey handle this from now on.
Overall I see most everyone having us pick a PG here. Though, rumors are out there that the Jazz are married to BPA and not PG. Unless the Jazz move up, I don't see us feeling like we need to pick a point guard here as the PGs we may be able to draft at #14 will not appreciably be better than the PGs we may be able to draft later on in the first round. And we have another pick in the first round. I'd go BPA here, and try to take a flier on a high upside guy. 2014 is the year where you can go safe pick with each draft spot and come out with a guy who can contribute. 2013 is a draft where you have to break through if you can.
First round, Pick #21
|Mock Draft||Author||Date||Round 1, Pick 21|
|1||Bleacher Report||J. Wasserman||June||24||2013||Lucas Nogueira||C||Brazil|
|3||CBS||M.Moore||May||19||2013||Reggie Bullock||G||North Carolina|
|5||Dime Magazine||Unknown||June||17||2013||Tony Mitchell||F||N. Texas|
|6||Draft Express||J.Givony||June||19||2013||Dennis Schroeder||G||Germany|
|8||ESPN||Secret Big Board||June||24||2013||Isaiah Canaan (tie)||/||Shabazz Muhammad|
|11||NBA . Com||S.Howard-Cooper||June||20||2013||Jeff Withey||C||Kansas|
|12||NBA . Com||Consensus||June||24||2013||--||--|
|13||NBA Draft . Net||Unknown||June||24||2013||Dennis Schroeder||G||Germany|
|14||NBA Draft Insider||K.Habbas||June||17||2013||Shane Larkin||G||Syracuse|
|15||Rotoworld||S.Alexander||June||13||2013||Tony Mitchell||F||N. Texas|
|17||SB Nation||J.Tjarks||June||24||2013||Lucas Noguiera||C||Brazil|
|18||Sheridan Hoops||J.Kotoch||June||24||2013||Dennis Schroeder||G||Germany|
|19||Slam Magazine||C.Mordi||June||11||2013||Ricky Ledo||G||Providence|
|20||Sporting News||S.Deveney||June||17||2013||Kelly Olynyk||C||Gonzaga|
|21||Sports Illustrated||C.Mannix||June||19||2013||Ricky Ledo||G||Providence|
|22||Spreecast||Strouf / Hensley||June||24||2013||Kelly Olynyk||C||Gonzaga|
|23||The Hoops Report||R.Feldman||June||16||2013||Steven Adams||C||Pittsburgh|
|24||USA Today||E.C.Anderson||June||25||2013||Tony Mitchell||F||N. Texas|
|25||WalterFootball.com||P.Banks / D.Kay||June||25||2013||Dennis Schroeder||G||Germany|
This is where things start to get pretty crazy, and I don't just mean that some of the guys picked here are also picked at #14, and some of the people picked at #14 are being picked here. Okay, no . . . wait. That's exactly what I mean. There's little separation in this draft due to talent level and experience. Dennis is the most frequent guy picked here for us (5 / 25, or 1 / 5), which is great for a few reasons. The first is that we get a PG that many of us want, a guy who is young, quick, long, etc. Second would be that he's not a lotto pick, so many that will humble / motivate him? I don't know. We've all heard rumors that he has a promise in the 1st round, but we don't know how high that promise comes. He has been falling recently because a) when he was here, he was stinking it up in workouts against these guys (he didn't play at the combine at all), and b) then felt "homesick" and returned to Germany.
He didn't play at the combine because he was "sick" as well.
It seems all pretty shady, like he does HAVE a promise. He's being hidden for a reason, either he's not that good, or that certain teams are supposed to not be allowed to know how good he is. Either way, I wouldn't be upset if he falls to us. But the beauty of this pick is that we really could end up with anyone. The ESPN secret big board has us getting either Canaan or Muhammad, which is mind blowing -- a one time Top 3 pick and a one time 2nd rounder, at the same position.
What the Jazz do at #14 will slightly influence what we do at #21; however, I would caution you to think that the influence will be as large as "if they go big, they won't go big again" or "if they go non-PG in the lotto, they will 100% go PG now". We have 6 players under contract for next season -- the team needs everything still.
A big riser (in my mind) is Ledo here. In a draft with little separation between the players, on the same court he was one of the few guys at the combine (recency bias?) who wowed. We don't have a lot of other data to go on because he didn't play a single game in the NCAAs. Jerry Sloan and Kevin O'Connor couldn't take their eyes off of him, and Tyrone Corbin was visibly engaged when Ledo blew by his man and threw it down on a help defender. All the other teams there on Day 1 of the Combine saw that too though. So he may still be a sleeper, but people are keeping one eye on him. The Jazz have not worked him out, but as we've seen in past years all they need to do is have an interview with a player before the draft to then pick them. Ledo can be a good player in the future, maybe even a starter, but I still think #21 is too high for him when there will be so many other players available to take. I feel like Giannis is someone you almost HAVE TO take at #21. Let's make up for balking on Batum / Ibaka back then for Koufos. Let's take Giannis.
Second round, Pick #46
|Mock Draft||Author||Date||Round 2, Pick 46|
|1||Bleacher Report||J. Wasserman||June||24||2013||Lorenzo Brown||G||North Carolina St.|
|6||Draft Express||J.Givony||June||19||2013||Nemanja Nedovic||G||Serbia|
|8||ESPN||Secret Big Board||June||24||2013||Jackie Carmichael (tie)||/||Ray McCallum (tie)|
|Ryan Kelly (tie)|
|11||NBA . Com||S.Howard-Cooper||June||20||2013||Livio Jean-Charles||F||France|
|12||NBA . Com||Consensus||June||24||2013||--||--|
|13||NBA Draft . Net||Unknown||June||24||2013||Ryan Kelly||F||Duke|
|14||NBA Draft Insider||K.Habbas||June||17||2013||Richard Howell||F||North Carolina St.|
|22||Spreecast||Strouf / Hensley||June||24||2013||--||--|
|23||The Hoops Report||R.Feldman||June||16||2013||Tony Snell||G||New Mexico|
|25||WalterFootball.com||P.Banks / D.Kay||June||25||2013||Ryan Kelly||F||Duke|
People just don't care about the second round. Which is a shame because teams like the Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs have made livings out of getting good talent here. Because there is no separation in this draft outside of the Top 10 some of the guys picked here would have been bubble 1st rounders in this draft if a few things went their way.
Only 12 of 25 mocks included this round. And among them, the majority of people think we're going to take Ryan Kelly or Adonis Thomas. Three people think we're going with a European player. I honestly don't know much about the 2nd round Euros in this draft, but I do like Alex Abrines. Does that mean he could be a good NBA player? I don't know.
I'm not against moving this pick, particularly if there's someone in the 30s that we like. We've traded up low second rounders before (with Philly at that) when we moved Herbert Hill and cash for Kyrylo Fesenko. Philly has the #35 this year, which could be a good pick if someone you like falls there, but I don't know if they are looking to trade it. More than anything else, though, we could see the Jazz "be aggressive" and move a combination of assets in a deal. We have three picks to use this year, two picks next year, and three picks the year after (we own the Nets 2015 2nd rounder). We also have, uh, 6 guys under contract. And the rights to Ante Tomic, Shan Foster, and some other guys who will never play here.
Or we could just keep this pick and find the next Dee Brown with it.
I love the NBA draft, I've stated before that it's my happiest day of the year. It's the happy ending to at least 60 movies, and the beginning / exposition to countless others. As I'm not going to be sitting in front of the TV and laptop like last year, so you guys are going to have to hold down the fort here. I think the Jazz could easily go BPA / BPA / BPA in this draft. After all, we do need everything.
I would rather go domestic than foreign for most of these guys as well. Which is funny because I'm an immigrant (Canada -> USA) who is the son of an immigrant (Kenya -> Canada), who is the son of an immigrant (India -> Kenya).
From what I've seen I'm not crazy with any of the high profile PGs in this draft, or many of the bigs (either they are raw and unpolished like Adams and Gobert, or polished but will never shine too bright, like Zeller or Olynyk). Some of the SGs and SFs from the 20-35 range look to project to be NBA rotation players though. Some of them actually had personalities as well, like Tim Hardaway Jr.
It's going to be a fun draft no matter what happens.
If you have any shout outs you want me to try to give people, leave them in the comments below. (And yes, I'm going to give Schroeder a techno music CD, you need to have been watching Mychal's draft combine videos to get that one.)
Char Ford's updated (June 25th) mock at E$PN is up, and he has us picking:
- #14 -- Lucas Noguiera (Bebe)
- #21 -- Isiah Canann, back on June 18th he had us picking Dennis Schroeder here
- #46 -- He still does not have a second round up yet