The Downbeat #1285: Mad Marvin Edition

A lot of hubbub was made yesterday over Marvin Williams possibly being shopped for a 1st round pick. Even more mind-blowing is Chad Ford reports there were suitors for that type of deal. Now before we get too ahead of ourselves we don't know what type of long-term contracts could have been coming the Jazz's way to facilitate that type of a deal. That being said I was in the "why wouldn't you make that deal???" camp. I was frustrated and other SLCDunk writers know that I let my fury be known in our e-mails to each other. That is before I came across his metrics.

We know that the future is analytics and Dennis Lindsey is slowly transforming this front office to the industrial age 21st century. So why was Marvin possibly more valuable than a late 1st round pick? Let's take a gander.

The first thing I'd like everyone to take a gander is his PER. Now while PER is a very limited advanced metric, it tells us that he is a very potent offensive player in limited action. Sure enough, Marvin's 17% usage rate shows us that he's not being over-utilized and so he's being efficient. His true shooting percentage of 57.2% and eFG% of 55.4% are higher than his career averages. What has been the key to this? His 3 point shot percentages. He takes more threes. In fact, 44.2% of his shots result in being a 3 pointer. That means he gets more points and in an efficient manner. To make things even better he is rebounding above his career averages, too. In fact he is above his career average in almost every category.

Why do I bring this up? Years ago, the OKC made one of their savviest moves as a front office. It didn't result in Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green, Ibaka, or James Harden. It resulted in a steady veteran presence. Nick Collison. He was signed in a deal that was mostly upfront while descending in price per year to the last year of his contract. It provided the Thunder with depth and much needed cap flexibility. He was a stabilizing force off the bench. Marvin Williams has the chance to be that guy for the Jazz next year provided the Jazz sign him to a smart deal and he re-signs for smart money. We'll see. Count me amongst the skeptics who weren't a fan of Marvin beforehand and have warmed up to him. (Sorry, Amar.) To quote the great movie "Moneyball":

Okay. People who run ball clubs, they think in terms of buying players. Your goal shouldn't be to buy players, your goal should be to buy wins. And in order to buy wins, you need to buy runs. You're trying to replace Johnny Damon. The Boston Red Sox see Johnny Damon and they see a star who's worth seven and half million dollars a year. When I see Johnny Damon, what I see is... is... an imperfect understanding of where runs come from. The guy's got a great glove. He's a decent leadoff hitter. He can steal bases. But is he worth the seven and half million dollars a year that the Boston Red Sox are paying him? No. No. Baseball thinking is medieval. They are asking all the wrong questions. And if I say it to anybody, I'm-I'm ostracized. I'm-I'm-I'm a leper. So that's why I'm-I'm cagey about this with you. That's why I... I respect you, Mr. Beane, and if you want full disclosure, I think it's a good thing that you got Damon off your payroll. I think it opens up all kinds of interesting possibilities.

The fact that Dennis Lindsey turned down these Marvin Williams deals tells me that he has an understanding of where wins come from. On a terrible Utah Jazz team who has the highest Win Shares per 48? Jeremy Evans, Marvin Williams, and Derrick Favors.

Speaking of Derrick Favors, HE HAD HIMSELF A MAN'S GAME. 20 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 blocks. And the most important stat? NO TURNOVERS. He shot almost 90% from the field and 100% from the line. ALL HAIL THE BEAST.*

*Do not touch the beast's hip. DON'T TOUCH HIS HIP. FOR THE LOVE OF KARL MALONE STAY AWAY FROM HIS HIP.

Now we have to keep in mind that Derrick Favors was facing a front court of Kris Humphries, Brandon Bass, and Kelly Olynyk so let's not get too ahead of ourselves. But the best part is he dominated inferior competition as he should. He did not struggle. He got the job done. Great work, Favors.

Max Chang, a great Utah Jazz follow on twitter and overall good guy, won a halftime competition. Max Chang, who was all-state Simon Says champion in high school, was selected to participate in a halftime competition at last night's Jazz game involving a game of Simon Says. Max Chang dominated the competition. Max Chang said in a statement:

@DJJazzyJody thanks, Jody. This tops my ninth grade Dnews sports writing award!

— Max Chang (@chang_max) February 25, 2014

Great work, Max Chang. As I said last night:

Today, all of us are @chang_max.

— Mychal Lowman (@My_Lo) February 25, 2014

Yesterday, Rudy Gobert's car was filled with popcorn. THAT'LL TEACH YOU TO DISRESPECT THE GREAT LUCAS!

via jazzfanatical.files.wordpress.com

Check out Monilogue's blog for the rest of this awesome prank. Great coverage of popcorn-gate, Moni!

As an update on our tank rankings I thought I'd pass along what the Jazz's odds are to win the lottery currently after last night's debacle fantastic win. Right now the Jazz's chance of winning the lottery is

7.2%

So you're saying there's a chance!