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There's not much preamble needed. This is what I think will happen. I'm okay with being wrong.
Final Standings:
Final | Current | Remaining | Total | ||||||||
Tankings | W | L | W | L | W | L | GB | ||||
1 | Milwaukee Bucks | 13 | 54 | 19.4% | 1 | 14 | 6.7% | 14 | 68 | 17.1% | 0.0 |
2 | Philadelphia 76ers | 15 | 51 | 22.7% | 0 | 16 | 0.0% | 15 | 67 | 18.3% | 1.0 |
3 | Orlando Magic | 19 | 48 | 28.4% | 1 | 14 | 6.7% | 20 | 62 | 24.4% | 6.0 |
4 | Los Angeles Lakers | 22 | 44 | 33.3% | 1 | 15 | 6.3% | 23 | 59 | 28.0% | 9.0 |
5 | Boston Celtics | 22 | 44 | 33.3% | 3 | 13 | 18.8% | 25 | 57 | 30.5% | 11.0 |
6 | Sacramento Kings | 23 | 43 | 34.8% | 3 | 13 | 18.8% | 26 | 56 | 31.7% | 12.0 |
7 | Utah Jazz | 22 | 44 | 33.3% | 4 | 12 | 25.0% | 26 | 56 | 31.7% | 12.0 |
8 | Detroit Pistons | 25 | 41 | 37.9% | 4 | 12 | 25.0% | 29 | 53 | 35.4% | 15.0 |
9 | New Orleans Pelicans | 26 | 39 | 40.0% | 5 | 12 | 29.4% | 31 | 51 | 37.8% | 17.0 |
10 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 26 | 40 | 39.4% | 7 | 9 | 43.8% | 33 | 49 | 40.2% | 19.0 |
11 | Denver Nuggets | 29 | 37 | 43.9% | 4 | 12 | 25.0% | 33 | 49 | 40.2% | 19.0 |
12 | New York Knicks | 27 | 40 | 40.3% | 6 | 9 | 40.0% | 33 | 49 | 40.2% | 19.0 |
13 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 32 | 32 | 50.0% | 7 | 11 | 38.9% | 39 | 43 | 47.6% | 25.0 |
14 | Phoenix Suns | 38 | 28 | 57.6% | 7 | 9 | 43.8% | 45 | 37 | 54.9% | 31.0 |
15 | Atlanta Hawks | 29 | 35 | 45.3% | 9 | 7 | 56.3% | 38 | 42 | 47.5% | 25.0 |
16 | Charlotte Bobcats | 33 | 34 | 49.3% | 8 | 7 | 53.3% | 41 | 41 | 50.0% | 27.0 |
17 | Brooklyn Nets | 33 | 31 | 51.6% | 13 | 5 | 72.2% | 46 | 36 | 56.1% | 32.0 |
18 | Memphis Grizzlies | 39 | 27 | 59.1% | 9 | 7 | 56.3% | 48 | 34 | 58.5% | 34.0 |
19 | Dallas Mavericks | 39 | 27 | 59.1% | 11 | 5 | 68.8% | 50 | 32 | 61.0% | 36.0 |
20 | Golden State Warriors | 41 | 26 | 61.2% | 10 | 5 | 66.7% | 51 | 31 | 62.2% | 37.0 |
Tie-Breakers / ownership:
- Sacramento wins the tie-breaker against Utah
- Cleveland, despite facing the Monty Hall problem, beat New York and Denver in a tie-breaker
- Atlanta decides to keep their pick, and not swap with Brooklyn
- New York, who lost the tie-breaker anyway, gives their pick to Denver
- Denver, who has to give the lower of their two first rounders to Orlando, gives the New York pick
- Utah gets Golden State's pick, which is not going to be worth a lot
Bottom Line:
- Utah is not going to be top five at this rate
- Philly lost every game, and still could not catch Milwaukee
- New York tried its' best, but could not catch Atlanta
- Phoenix could not catch Golden State, and neither could Memphis or Dallas
Lottery:
Final | Total | Let's play ping-pong | ||||||||||
Tankings | W | L | GB | Chances | 1st | 1nd | 3rd | Top Three | ||||
1 | Milwaukee Bucks | 14 | 68 | 17.1% | 0.0 | 250 | 25.0% | 21.5% | 17.8% | 64.3% | ||
2 | Philadelphia 76ers | 15 | 67 | 18.3% | 1.0 | 199 | 19.9% | 18.8% | 17.1% | 55.8% | ||
3 | Orlando Magic | 20 | 62 | 24.4% | 6.0 | 156 | 15.6% | 15.7% | 15.6% | 46.9% | ||
4 | Los Angeles Lakers | 23 | 59 | 28.0% | 9.0 | 119 | 11.9% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 37.8% | ||
5 | Boston Celtics | 25 | 57 | 30.5% | 11.0 | 88 | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 29.2% | ||
6 | Sacramento Kings | 26 | 56 | 31.7% | 12.0 | 63 | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 21.5% | ||
7 | Utah Jazz | 26 | 56 | 31.7% | 12.0 | 43 | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 15.0% | ||
8 | Detroit Pistons | 29 | 53 | 35.4% | 15.0 | 28 | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 10.0% | ||
9 | New Orleans Pelicans | 31 | 51 | 37.8% | 17.0 | 17 | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 6.1% | ||
10 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 33 | 49 | 40.2% | 19.0 | 11 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 4.0% | ||
11 | Denver Nuggets | 33 | 49 | 40.2% | 19.0 | 8 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.9% | ||
12 | Orlando Magic |
33 | 49 | 40.2% | 19.0 | 7 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.5% | ||
13 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 39 | 43 | 47.6% | 25.0 | 6 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.2% | ||
14 | Phoenix Suns | 45 | 37 | 54.9% | 31.0 | 5 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.8% |
You better hope Matt Harpring is a demi-god (we know Derrick Favors is), because 15 is going to be all the chance we have to jump up.