Okay, the NBA Draft is in late June. And the Draft lottery is on May 20th. The NBA Pre-Draft Combine is the week before. And right now, well, it's still April. We have a lot of time to look at players right now, even if the spots aren't secure. (That's why we've kept up with our consensus player rankings, and not done round-ups of mock drafts to see who the Utah Jazz will be picking at #4) (After all, with Dennis Lindsey's track record where we are slotted to pick has nothing to do with who we are leaving the NBA draft with as a player -- he traded all his picks last year, and we got new players in spots we weren't scheduled to pick in.)
Sooooooo, getting back to the lottery . . . we know what the updated probabilities look like:
It is unlikely that the Jazz pick at #4 (again, big reason why I haven't been showing you who people think we'll take at #4, in April, a month before the lotto). It's more likely that the Jazz pick in the Top 3, and way more likely that they pick somewhere in the Top 5, but there's still a 1 in 5 shot we drop down. So how you look at it may depend on how optimistic / realistic / pessimistic you are. Yeah, so the question becomes "what do you think will happen at the draft lottery?"
Are you superstitious? If so, do you have a 'go-to' plan for what to do on the day of the lottery?