FanPost

Can Jazz follow Pacers' model?

It seems that the Indiana Pacers provide an interesting and hopeful comparison with the Jazz. In 2003-4, the Pacers were the Eastern Conference’s bright young team, only to see the promise crumble. It took a while, but they built themselves back up so that by 2013-14 they reached the top of their conference (regular season record).

In 2007-8, four years after the Pacers, the Jazz was the hot, young team. We know how that turned out, but hope remains that better things are on the way.

I think a year-by-year comparison is fairly interesting. I’ll start with 2003-4 for the Pacers and 2007-8 for the Jazz. The Pacer’s actual record was a bit better in that first year, though the Jazz’s statistically derived expected winning percentage (according to basketballreference.com) was actually a bit better.

Year 1
Pacers
Winning percentage: .744
Coach: Carlisle
Age of key players: 25, 24, 23, 38, 25, 27
Leading players: Artest, O’Neal, Harrington, Reggie Miller, Tinsley, Foster

Jazz
Winning percentage: .659
Coach: Sloan
Age of key players: 23, 26, 28, 26, 22, 26, 22, 31
Leading players: Boozer, Williams, Okur, AK, Brewer, Korver, Millsap, Harpring

Year 2
Pacers
Winning percentage: .537
Coach: Carlisle
Age of key players: 26, 26, 26, 39
Leading players: Stephen Jackson, O’Neal, Tinsley, Miller (much less efficient than previous year)
Key changes/notes: Malice at the Palace (Artest suspended)

Jazz
Winning percentage: .585
Coach: Sloan
Age of key players: 24, 29, 23, 23, 27, 27
Leading players: Williams, Okur, Brewer, Millsap, AK
Key changes/notes: Boozer injured more than half the season

Year 3
Pacers
Winning percentage: .500
Coach: Carlisle
Age of key players: 26, 28, 27, 27
Leading players: Artest, Stojakovic, Jackson, O’Neal
Key changes/notes: Stojakovic traded for Artest mid-season
Key rookie(s): Granger

Jazz
Winning percentage: .646
Coach: Sloan
Age of key players: 25, 28, 24, 30, 23, 28
Leading players: Williams, Boozer, Brewer, AK, Millsap, Matthews
Key changes/notes: Brewer traded
Key rookie(s): Matthews

Year 4
Pacers
Winning percentage: .422
Coach: Carlisle
Age of key players: 26, 28, 23, 26, 28, 26
Leading players: Harrington, Jackson, Dunleavy, O’Neal, Granger, Tinsley, Murphy
Key changes/notes: Stojakavic traded before season; Dunleavy comes to team in mid-season trade for Harrington & Jackson; Carlisle’s offense was 9th most efficient in 2003-4, was 30th this year; Carlisle replaced at year’s end.

Jazz
Winning percentage: .467
Coach: Sloan/Corbin
Age of key players: 26, 26, 25, 27, 29, 34
Leading players: Williams, Jefferson, Millsap, Harris, AK, Bell
Key changes/notes: Korver, Matthews, Boozer let go; Jefferson acquired; Sloan retires; mid-season trade of Williams for Favors & Harris
Key rookie(s): Hayward, Favors
Development of future core: Hayward (20 years old) 16.9 mpg; Favors (19) 20.2

Year 5
Pacers
Winning percentage: .439
Coach: O’Brien
Age of key players: 27, 24, 29, 29, 27
Leading players: Granger, Dunleavy, Tinsley, O’Neal, Murphy
Key changes/notes: New coach

Jazz
Winning percentage: .545
Coach: Corbin
Age of key players: 26, 27, 21, 28, 35, 31, 20, 32, 24
Leading players: Jefferson, Millsap, Hayward, Harris
Key changes/notes: AK let go; 1st full year for new coach
Key rookie(s): Kanter, Burks
Development of future core: Hayward (21) 30.5; Favors (20) 21.2; Burks (20) 15.9; Kanter (19) 13.2

Year 6

Pacers
Winning percentage: .439
Coach: O’Brien
Age of key players: 25, 28, 25, 28, 25, 28
Leading players: Granger, Murphy, Jack, Daniels, Ford, Dunleavy
Key changes/notes:
Key rookie(s): Hibbert
Development of future core: Hibbert (22) 14.4

Jazz
Winning percentage: .524
Coach: Corbin
Age of key players: 28, 30, 27, 22, 29, 26, 21
Leading players: Jefferson, Mo Williams, Millsap, Hayward, Foye, Marvin, Favors
Key changes/notes: trade of Harris for Marvin, Foye & Williams acquired
Key rookie(s):
Development of future core: Hayward (22) 29.2; Favors (21) 23.2; Burks (21) 17.8; Kanter (20) 15.4

Year 7

Pacers
Winning percentage: .390 (bottomed-out)
Coach: O’Brien
Age of key players: 26, 29, 24, 30, 26, 23, 29
Leading players: Granger, Murphy, Hibbert
Key changes/notes:
Key rookie(s): Hansbrough
Development of future core: Hibbert (23) 25.1

Jazz
Winning percentage: .309 (bottomed out??)
Coach: Corbin
Age of key players: 23, 21, 22, 22, 33, 21, 27
Leading players: Hayward, Burke, Favors, Burks, Jefferson, Kanter, Marvin
Key changes/notes: Jefferson, Millsap, Mo, Foye let go
Key rookie(s): Burke, Gobert
Development of future core: Hayward (23) 36.4; Favors (22) 30.2; Burke (21) 32.3; Burks (22) 28.1; Kanter (21) 26.7; Gobert (21) 9.6

Year 8
Pacers
Winning percentage: .451
Coach: O’Brien/Vogel
Age of key players: 27, 23, 24, 30, 23, 25
Leading players: Granger, Collison, Hibbert, Dunleavy, Hansbrough
Key changes/notes: Vogel replaces O’Brien as coach mid-season; Vogel over .500 in his stint
Key rookie(s): George, Stephenson
Development of future core: Hibbert (24) 27.7; George (20) 20.7; Stephenson (20) 9.6 (only appeared in 12 games)

Jazz
Winning percentage: ?
Coach: Snyder
Age of key players: 24, 22, 23, 23, 22, 22, 19, 26, 31
Leading players: ?
Key changes/notes: New coach; Marvin, Jefferson let go
Key rookie(s): Exum; Hood
Development of future core: Hayward (24) ?; Favors (23) ?; Burke (22) ?; Burks (23) ?; Kanter (22) ?; Gobert (22) ?; Exum (19) ?; Hood (22) ?

Year 9
Pacers
Winning percentage: .636
Coach: Vogel
Age of key players: 28, 24, 25, 21, 31, 25, 26
Leading players: Granger, Collison, Hibbert, George, West
Key changes/notes: West and Hill acquired
Key rookie(s): George, Stephenson
Development of future core: George (21) 29.7; Stephenson (21) 10.5

Year 10
Pacers
Winning percentage: .605
Coach: Vogel
Age of key players: 22, 26, 32, 22, 26
Leading players: George, Hill, West, Stephenson, Hibbert
Key changes/notes: Granger injured
Key rookie(s): None, but rookie broke out the following year with Phoenix (Plumlee) plays 3.9 mpg
Development of future core: George (22) 37.6; Stephenson (22) 29.2

Year 11
Pacers
Winning percentage: .683
Coach: Vogel
Age of key players: 23, 23, 27, 33, 27
Leading players: George, Stephenson, West, Hill, Hibbert
Key changes/notes:
Key rookie(s):
Development of future core: George (23) 36.2; Stephenson (23) 35.3

Any thoughts? Is the comparison useful? Do you think we’re on the right track? Key moves we might expect in future years?

In each year along this timeline, the Pacer’s defense was better than the Jazz’s defense in the same timeline year. Will we be able to fix that? Can we find our superstar? Can we still become a contender if we don’t do both of those as well as the Pacers have?



All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.