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What to Do With Hayward?

Hayward's contract gives him the option of opting out after next season and becoming a free agent. That's led to a lot of speculation about what he will do, and in turn, what the Jazz should do. Here's my take on the whole situation:

Option #1: Hayward doesn't opt out

Sure, it's technically possible, but it won't happen. There's only one possible reason why Gordon would opt in for the final year of his contract, and that's if he misses significant time next season due to an injury. And I mean significant time, like 50+ games, mostly towards the end of the season.

Hayward's contract was structured the way it was for two reasons: 1) To give Charlotte the best chance of taking Hayward (which failed), and 2) To get Hayward the most possible money on his next contract. The length of the contract was likely proposed by Hayward's agent. The two guaranteed years allow Hayward to become a free agent after his 7th year in the league. According to the CBA, at that point Hayward will qualify for a Tier-2 max contract, which would be 30% of the cap. Had the contract ended before then, Hayward would still have been a Tier-3 player, only qualifying for a 25% max contract. (FYI, Tier-1 max contracts are 35% of the cap and can only be given to players with 10+ years of experience.) With the cap set to rise substantially, and Hayward's experience lining up with that increase, I doubt that any other contract length would have been considered (other than the extension contract, which I'm not going to get into). The option year was likely added as injury insurance.

Option #2: Hayward opts out

This is by far the most likely scenario, so we'll assume this happens.

Possibility #1: Jazz re-sign Hayward in 2017

This is the most likely scenario. Let me go over a few reasons why the Jazz will likely give Hayward a max deal:

  1. Hayward is currently 23rd in the NBA in total win-shares, and one of only 20 players in the league well-rounded enough to average at least 20/3/3. He's a borderline top 30 player overall (ESPN had him at #32 at the beginning of the season). He's been incredibly healthy (he's played in over 90% of his possible games), and he still hasn't hit his prime.
  2. Supply and demand will dictate that Hayward gets a max. Hayward, Andre Iguodala, Danilo Gallinari, and Rudy Gay are the only small forwards that have made more than $10M per year and will be unrestricted free agents in 2017. Hayward is almost definitely the best player among this group, and the only wing outside of these 4 that could fetch a max is Giannis Antetokounmpo, but he'll be restricted and likely to stay in Milwukee. That's too few options to not pay Hayward a max.
  3. Even on a max deal, Hayward could be easily traded. The Jazz will have the cap room to give both Hayward and Gobert a max deal and fill out the roster without going into the luxury tax. Since the Jazz can pay him, they should. Financial problems wouldn't hit the team until 2018 or 2019, depending on who sticks around. Hayward is a good to great player that could easily be traded for other pieces. If, for any reason, Hayward becomes the odd man out, then he could be moved.

Possibility #2: Jazz let Hayward walk in 2017

I don't think this is very likely. The Jazz will be well aware of the maximum contract other teams can offer Hayward, and will have the ability to offer more. In 2017, the Jazz will still have plenty of cap space, and since they'll also have Hayward's Bird rights, they'll be able to go over the cap to sign him if necessary (a very unlikely situation). So available money won't be a reason to let him go.

The way I see it, that only leaves three reasons why the Jazz would let Hayward walk:

  1. Hayward wants out. At this point, I don't think this is likely. I believe that Hayward has shown that he's smart with money and hates to lose. That makes me think that the two things he's going to look for in free agency are team success and a long term contract. The Jazz can offer him the best contract, so if Hayward walks, it will be because he doesn't believe the team can win. Going to the playoffs this season would help alleviate that fear, but next season will be more important. If the Jazz can get to the 6th seed or better next season, I don't think Hayward will be left with any incentive to walk.
  2. Hayward shows he's not worth a max. I also don't think that this is likely. Hayward would have to have a dismal year next season to not be offered a max contract, and even then I'd bet some team would take a chance since there are so few players available. If the Jazz didn't tender a similar offer, then it would be because they either saw some fundamental flaw they didn't believe could be corrected, or there were some Ty Lawson level personal problems they didn't want to deal with.
  3. Too many max players. If this is the reason we don't keep Hayward, then the Jazz have a very good problem. The idea here would be that Hayward, Favors, and Gobert all deserve max contracts, which would take 85% of the team's cap space (30% each for Hayward and Favors, and 25% for Gobert) Hayward and Gobert will be up for new contracts at the same time (2017). The next season, Favors, Hood, and Exum will be eligible for new deals. If Hood and Exum are also max level players, then those 5 guys would take up 135% of the Jazz cap space. So the Jazz would be in the luxury tax, even if they waived or traded every other man on the roster. If the front office thinks that's likely and Hayward is the odd man out, then letting him walk may be the best option since they won't have to take back salary they're planning on using for Exum/Hood. I'm not actually too worried about this. First, if our entire frontcourt is made up of max players, then we should be at least fighting for home-court in the playoffs, and we're not there yet. Second, if Hood and Exum are both asking for max extensions, then the Jazz better have made the conference finals next season, and if the Jazz are making it to the conference finals with a bunch of players under 27 years old, then the luxury tax should definitely be on the table. Third, if all of those guys are really max, or even near max players, then you sign them all and trade one or two for depth and draft picks. I'd probably prefer 3 max guys with good to great support than have 5 max guys and d-league support.

Possibility #3: Jazz trade Hayward

The only reason the Jazz do this is if they're convinced that Hayward has already made a decision and will not re-sign with the team after opting out. If the Jazz feel they can re-sign Hayward, then they do their best to keep him for the reasons outlined above. If the Jazz don't think Hayward will stay with the team, even if given a max deal, then they cut their losses and trade him as soon as possible.

Hayward's arguably a top 5 player at his position. That's both good and bad for the Jazz should they try and trade him. The good news is that the FO could demand a lot for him. At minimum, I would expect the Jazz to get a promising young player and a minimally protected 1st round pick. At most, the Jazz could probably get something similar to the Deron Williams deal: a promising young player, an established player, and 2 1st round picks. The bad news is that if the Jazz traded Hayward, they wouldn't get equal value back immediately. They'd be hoping that whatever player/draft pick combo they acquired would at some point give something close to what Hayward provides. The team would likely take a step back in terms of wins, but would hopefully be a little deeper and would probably be in a better financial position.

I'm of the opinion that the front office has planned for next season to be the year the Jazz try and make some noise in the playoffs, and I don't see that goal changing, even if Hayward is moved. If that's true, then I think if Hayward is traded, it will need to happen during this coming off season. It gives the receiving team a full year to convince Hayward to stay, and it gives the Jazz as much time as possible to incorporate an offense that's not built around Hayward.

To give you an idea of who the Jazz would be looking to get, here are a few wings (or players who could potentially play a point forward type role) that are younger than Hayward, but could eventually give similar production:

Aaron Gordon, Khris Middleton, Otto Porter, Tobias Harris, Andrew Wiggins, and Jabari Parker. That's about it. If you wanted to add in rookies (I didn't initially since it's probably too early to tell how much they could improve), then you could throw in Justise Winslow, Stanley Johnson, and Mario Hezonja. You may notice that almost all of those guys were either top 5 picks or are playing for teams built similarly to the Jazz (lots of youth trying to develop together).

I don't know if Hayward would be enough to part with any of those guys. He should be, he's better than all of them, but it's no guarantee. The Jazz would also want at least one 1st round pick as well.

Basically, I'm not convinced that the Jazz would be able to find a good enough deal. They may settle for less if they're absolutely sure that Hayward will not re-sign, but if there's even a slight chance that he will, the Jazz would probably prefer to keep Hayward rather than moving him.

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There you go. Give me your thoughts in the comments

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.