FanPost

Sixers Science Investigation: Ricky Rubio

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

Everyone knows Ricky Rubio, the Spanish sensation who became the youngest player ever to play in the Spanish ACB League at age 14. He was drafted by the lowly Timberwolves, whom he played 6 seasons far (missing playoffs each year), before being traded to the Utah Jazz this offseason in exchange for a 1st round pick in the 2018 Draft. One of the most enigmatic players in modern basketball, I will attempt to break down what Rubio really brings to the table as a player.

Here's a basic theme for Rubio:

Let's start off basic:

Screen-Shot-2017-10-12-at-11.54.42-AMc1c89a1b451c35c5.0.png

Of all the minutes the Timberwolves played during the 2016-17 regular season, Rubio was on the floor for 62% of them. While he was on the floor, the Timberwolves were outscored by 7 points. Hypothetically, if Rubio played the entire game (48 minutes), the Timberwolves, on average, would be 0.1 points worse than their opponent.

Screen-Shot-2017-10-12-at-11.55.04-AMaa5b430116d39cfd.0.png

As we can extrapolate from NBA history, players who don't score a lot of points are usually not highly revered. Since joining the Timberwolves as a 21-year-old in 2011, Rubio has hovered around 12 points per 36 minutes for his career. We all know he possessions a smorgasbord of crafty passes -- from one-handed hooks, lobs, no-looks, spinning bounce passes, and full-court outlet passes that parachute down from the rafters in the waiting arms of a teammate on the fastbreak. He is one of the most creative passers the NBA has ever seen, and he's only 26! He also is perennially one of the league leaders in the steals department, as well as being a solid rebounder for the point guard position.

Screen-Shot-2017-10-12-at-11.55.13-AMb040fd588a68d87e.0.png

I believe many people group Rubio in with Rajon Rondo -- extraordinary passers who play great defense and rebound -- but can't shoot a lick. This evidences how we take mental shortcuts to group things together, allowing us to make more sense of the world. People see players sagging off Rubio and just assume, "he's a terrible shooter." There is one problem with this narrative, Rubio is one of the best free-throw shooters in the NBA, Rondo is one of the worst point guard free-throw-shooters of all-time. Rubio improved to 89% from the stripe last year, albeit on 3.8 attempts per game.

The worst facet of Rubio's offense is his penchant for shooting mid-range shots, where almost 44% of his attempts came from this past season. The saving grace is that he connected on 45% of these attempts, which is one the best conversion rates in the NBA, so perhaps is the not worst shot-selection. As we can see, he has lead the league in STL% in three separate seasons, which is something I will touch on in the Film Study segment. The box-score advanced statistics seem to think Rubio is more valuable on defense than offense, a curious observation that I will also look into.

Fun fact: Ricky Rubio has NEVER dunked in an NBA game.

Screen-Shot-2017-10-12-at-11.54.29-AM4a5395f63fff7a8f.0.png

These are the lineups that garnered over 70 minutes together for the Timberwolves last season. He appeared in three of the top four most-used lineups, and two of those three were NET positive. When they substituted Zach LaVine for Brandon Rush, they actually improved, which should make Bulls fans cringe. Side note: Kris Dunn is also terrible.

Screen-Shot-2017-10-12-at-11.55.25-AM39a1be4b757c8cc2.0.png

The scary part thing about Ricky Rubio's shot chart is that it doesn't look wildly different than D'Angelo Russell's. Check it out:

Screen-Shot-2017-10-12-at-1.23.22-PM13f19bbb2c19de35.0.png

Yes, Russell is more of a chucker, but Rubio doesn't seem to have any hot-spots except right at the free-throw line, which is clearly one of his preferred shots. Unless he overhauls his form, he should completely eschew the left-corner three from his game. I would like to see some of those 18 footers become 12 footers, as I feel he has good touch on those shorter, tweener shots ala Demar Derozan.

Screen-Shot-2017-10-12-at-12.21.28-PMde5d796ad2456fa1.0.png

Here's a list of the guys who averaged the most assists per 36 minutes while scoring under 15 points, what I would call floor generals. I think if Rubio could shoot league average (~36%) from three, he would be considered a shoe-in as a top 10 point guard.

Our next visual is from talented NBA Data guru Jacob Goldstein (who will appear on next podcast) made a shot-making efficiency metric, that dates back to 1979. It predicts someone's expected TS%, and then looks at what they actually made, generating percentiles that show you someone's ability to score, taking volume and efficiency with equal consideration.

Screen-Shot-2017-10-12-at-11.56.34-AM89f7d8d948e80a3f.0.png

The bottom line: Rubio can get pretty easy shots, but he can't convert them with any semblance of efficiency. He's one of the most inefficient scorers in the NBA. If he retired tomorrow, he would be in the 1.5-percentile for efficiency for his career, a truly miserable ranking. This is what happens when you shoot 30% of your attempts from beyond-the-arc despite being a career 31% three-point-shooter, as well as only finishing 59 layups all year. Now that I think about it, maybe he should shoot all of his shots from right around the free-throw line.

Back to some good news:

If you unfamilar with my other player investigations, I created a statistic that captures the effectiveness of contributions that don't hit the box score. The updated formula uses a Bayesian estimation, correlated to RAPM.

Per 36: (Screen Assists / 2) + (Deflections) + (Inverse Defensive FG% plus-minus /1.25) + (Drawn Charges) + (Loose Balls Recovered) + (Contested Shots) + (Hockey Assists * 2.25) + (RAPM / 3)

Guess what? Rubio ranks 50th out of 280 qualified players in the Uncaptured Box Statistic. Many of his contributions are not captured in the box-score, so perhaps he's more impactful than a cursory glance at his statistics would suggest.

The Synergy Stats

Screen-Shot-2017-10-12-at-2.43.26-PM65ef69499c0d6e1e.0.png

You would like to see less shots taken out of the Pick-and-Roll, and more of him attacking closeouts during spot-ups. There isn't much efficiency across the board here.

Here's a snapshot of his Pick-and-Roll dervied offense:

Screen-Shot-2017-10-12-at-2.44.39-PM5c3d41cf85b798e1.0.png

This looks a lot better but still isn't what you'd expect from a passing maestro. Finally, his decision making the PnR with accompanied efficiency numbers.

Screen-Shot-2017-10-12-at-2.43.49-PM612987c9d548bcdb.0.png

Film Study

  • Has a tremendous feel for pace and space, controlling the tempo of the game, and controlling the offense in a way that is conducive to getting open shots for his teammates.
  • Has a tendency to look for a pass that will generate an assist, as opposed to making the simple pass, although he does this pretty darn effectively.
  • Although he dribbles a lot, rarely uses moves other than hesitations, in and outs, an overall vanilla repertoire but does change speeds well.
  • Rigid, unorthodox jump shot, that looks overly aimed and pushed -- is very streaky, shot 28.1% from three before All-Star Break and 35.3% after, any change in form was imperceptible.
  • Smart defender who's good at jumping passing lanes and getting deflections, is able to read the ball-handler most of the time, although get can overly ambitious which leads to failed closeouts and getting backdoored.
  • Not great at working through screens but is effective when switched onto bigger players, uses crafty and timely swipes and leverage to disrupt them.
  • The main issue in the Pick-and-Roll is that the defense can sag off him taking away the roll-man and discourage him from driving, where he's not that great at finishing in the first place.
  • Was a cog in the machine when it comes to Karl Anthony Towns production in pick-and-roll, relegating him to a pick-and-popper, because he wasn't a threat off the dribble. Despite this, Towns still averaged 1.23 points per possesion as a roll-man, which is elite.
  • Never uses Euro Step or Floaters when attacking the basket, which is what you'd expect from an non-athletic point guard, and this hurts his efficiency, as he prefers pull-up jumpers and scoop layups that are hit-or-miss.
  • Not effective scoring in transition, but can distribute with tremendous vision and touch for passing to teammates on the move.

Check out Rubio catch fire on his new team:

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.