Can Bambi replace George Hill?

With the prospect of Hill leaving UTA next year or, possibly, getting overpaid to stay, I decided to look at the recent gap between Hill and Exum. Exum has played in 21 games since Feb. 1 (Hill 18) – that is a decent sample size.

Here are per 36 min numbers (yeah, yeah, I already hear the criticism):

Hill 3.4 reb, 4.6 ast, 2.0 tov, 1.2 stl, 0.3 blk, 2.7 pf, 18.7 pts, 5.4 3PA, 5.2 FTA, 48% FG, 41% 3P, 80% FT

Exum 4.2 reb, 3.4 ast, 3.4 tov, 0.8 stl, 0.2 blk, 4.4 pf, 16.0 pts, 4.0 3PA, 3.6 FTA, 49% FG, 33% 3P, 78% FT

Bambi needs to decrease TOVs and PFs and increase AST but otherwise compares favorably. Well, Exum may never match Hill’s 3PAs and 3P%, so that’s a substantial deficiency. Might Exum shoot 35% from 3 at some point?

Turning to team performance, Exum compares even more favorably! Since Feb. 1:

Hill 574 minutes OffRtg 109.3 DefRtg 101.4 Net +7.9

Exum 358 minutes OffRtg 106.4 DefRtg 101.5 Net +4.9

Hill with Gobert and Hayward (397 mins) +13.9

Exum with Gobert and Hayward (171mins) +13.1

Hill with Gobert, Ingles and Hayward (248 mins) +13.0

Exum with Gobert, Ingles and Hayward (72 mins) +22.0

Hill with Gobert, Johnson and Hayward (164 mins) +10.5

Exum with Gobert, Johnson and Hayward (61 mins) +17.8

I want DL to re-sign Hill. He has made an undeniable difference in UTA’s winning performance and has fantastic advanced numbers (until recently one of about 15 players with PER >20, WS/48 >0.2, and BPM >4). He makes Hayward better. I think he is worth $20-25M/year. But if NYK et al. offer him anything approaching a max deal, I regretfully think it will be time to let him walk. Roll the dice, instead, on the skinny joey who used to hide in the corner.

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.