FanPost

2018/19 Free Agency Lookahead

Although Gordon Hayward’s departure crippled the Jazz, there is still one positive aspect to his leaving. The Jazz will now have cap space for the 2018/19 offseasons, and thanks to last year’s spending frenzy, will be one of a few teams with that distinction. For the 2017-18 season, the Jazz payroll looks to be around $110 million, after Royce O’Neal is signed. That puts them about $11 million over the cap but $9 million below the tax line. Here’s a link to the full spreadsheet if you want to see it: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/utah_jazz/.

After the 2017-18 season, the Jazz’ payroll drops to just $76.3 million, due to the free agency of Joe Johnson, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood, and Dante Exum. Projecting a 1-2% cap increase from this year, that puts them $24-25 million below the cap line, enough to sign a max-level player.

How much space they will actually have will be more complicated, however. To get that $24-25 million in space, they would have to renounce all four of the above free agents. Would gaining a max-level player be enough to offset the loss of Favors, Hood, Exum, and Johnson? Probably not, which is why the Jazz will try to resign/extend at least some of the above players mentioned.

Another complicating factor is this year’s free agency signings of Sefolosha, Jerebko, and Udoh. If David Locke is to be believed, all of these contracts have team options on the second year, which would be great if true. If the Jazz declined the team options for all three players, they would open up an additional $12.5 million in space, putting them $36-37 million below the salary cap. They could spend this money in any of the following ways:

(1) Guaranteeing the team options of either Sefolosha ($5 million), Jerebko ($4 million), or Udoh ($3 million)

(2) Resigning Favors, Exum, Hood or Johnson

(3) Signing a Free agent

The scarcity of money means they can’t do all of three of these- doing one limits their ability to do the other two. They may not even want to spend all of their money, and would prefer to wait until 2019 to make a move (more on that later). Let’s preview the 2018 free agency class first to see if there’s any worthy options.

The Jazz are obviously set at center for the next few years, and I think at the guard spots as well. Donovan Mitchell looks like a keeper, and likely at least one of Ricky Rubio, Rodney Hood, or Dante Exum will play well enough to be part of the Jazz’ long term plans. Making a big free agency signing at either the point guard or shooting guard spot wouldn’t make much sense to me.

With the 1,2 and 5 spots filled, any max level free agent the Jazz sign would have to be at one of the forward spots. Here’s the list of max or near-max level players available next year who play those positions:

Available, not possible: Lebron James (player option), Carmelo Anthony (player option), Andrew Wiggins (restricted), Kevin Durant (player option), Lamarcus Aldridge (player option), Paul George (player option)

Available, maybe possible: Aaron Gordon (restricted), Jabari Parker (restricted)

There are also a number of candidates that aren’t max or near-max, but may still be options: Wilson Chandler, Trevor Ariza, Robert Covington, Julius Randle, Norman Powell, and TJ Warren are names to throw around, but none of them excite me too much.

The only two near-max level forwards that appear viable for the Jazz are Jabari Parker and Aaron Gordon, both top-five picks from the 2014 draft class. They are both intriguing talents, but not without their flaws: Parker can’t play defense, and Gordon can’t shoot. Who knows if their current teams will want to hold onto them- Gordon is probably Orlando’s best player, but they may be hesitant to pay him a full max, and Jonathan Isaac could possibly crowd him out in the Magic’s long-term plans if he plays well enough in his first year. Milwaukee would probably be hesitant to commit max-level money to a one-way player who has already suffered two ACL tears, and his roster fit with the team is questionable- both Giannis and Parker are best played at the four.

If the Jazz did decide to throw money at one of these players, they would have to be willing to bet that they could get a bit more out of them than their previous teams did- paying either Gordon or Parker $25 million based on their production from last year is overpaying.

If the Jazz can’t find anyone they like, they may want to wait one more year, until 2019. Rubio and Burks become free agents that year, and the only players the Jazz will still have under contract will be Gobert, Ingles, and Mitchell and Bradley (both non-guaranteed). This puts their payroll at just $35 million, although they will probably want to keep Rubio or at least spend some money on a guard if they let him go. They will also likely have spent some money extending either Favors, Hood, or Exum. Nevertheless, as long as they don’t commit to any long-term deals during the 2018 offseason, they should have max space in 2019, and may be one of the only teams that does. Here’s a quick lookahead to the 2019 offseason and the max-level players available there, at every position except for center:

PG: Russell Westbrook (if he accepts his player option for 2018 and does not sign an extension), Kemba Walker, DeAngelo Russell (restricted)

SG: Klay Thompson, Devin Booker (restricted)

SF: Lebron James?, Kevin Durant?, Harrison Barnes (player option)

PF: Kevin Love (player option), Kristaps Porzingis (restricted), Karl Anthony-Towns (restricted)

Klay Thompson is the most intriguing team here. Maybe after two more championships with the Warriors, he’ll want to leave to have his own team? None of the other names appear to be that likely (maybe Kemba Walker or Kevin Love), but you never know how things will play out.

Excluding free agency, trade could be another way the Jazz look to add a star. You never know who could become available; two weeks ago, no one thought that Kyrie Irving was a trade candidate. Although the Jazz don’t have space this year to absorb a star and would have to send out matching salary, they should be enough under the cap for the next two years to make adding a star easier than it will be for other teams.

The Jazz already have a top-15 player in Rudy Gobert. They have promising young guards with potential- I would bet that one of Donovan Mitchell, Rodney Hood, or Dante Exum becomes a top-50 player within the next two years. And they have Derrick Favors, who just a year ago was playing like a top 30-40 player before his long stream of injuries began. However, they’ll need to add another star if they want to be legitimate contenders. Next year looks like a "see how things play out" year- all of Exum, Rubio, Mitchell, Hood, and Favors have significant questions in how good they can be. It’s possible that everyone plays well enough to keep the band together, but if that’s not the case, they should keep their eyes open to see if signing Gordon or Parker in 2018 free agency would be worthwhile. If that’s not the case, they should look toward 2019, and begin recruiting for different players to come. All the while, they should keep their eyes open for trade opportunities that could come their way.

By the beginning of the 2019 season, the Jazz will have Gobert, and hopefully another guard who is playing at or near an all-star level- whether that be Mitchell, Exum, Hood, or even Rubio is unclear. Sometime before that, they will have hopefully added a third piece, someone who complements the rest of the team, and can play alongside the Jazz’ established players. By this time the Jazz should be back on their feet, the Warriors might be weakened, and the East/West imbalance will hopefully have shifted back a bit. They’ll have two seasons to prove to Gobert that he should stay in unrestricted free agency.

So even though the Jazz did lose Hayward this year, there’s a clear path for them to get back on track. If they keep the steady, level-headed approach they’ve had for the past few years and don’t sign any bad contracts, they should be just fine.

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.