Rodney Hood’s streaky nature is no secret to Jazz fans. His hot or cold, on/off tendencies have long been a cause for concern. But what makes him so inconsistent? Why are his performances so all over the place? For a look at another hot/cold player (Lou Williams), we go to MDJ’s YouTube channel:
MDJ has data that paints a picture of a maddeningly inconsistent player who has on/off tendencies of the most extreme variety. Using MDJ’s model, we can see that Rodney Hood could have just as easily been the subject of a video like this one.
Below is a chart that shows Hood’s efficiency and production through the season. The two rows are:
- Games in which Hood made his first field goal attempt
- Games in which he missed his first field goal attempt.
In games where Hood made his first shot, he scored 15.8 points per game (just a shade over 16 when you disregard 2 games that were cut short by injuries) on an efficient shooting split of 47/42.5/80. He was very likely to have a 15+ point game, and the variance in game-to-game performance (though not shown here) was much smaller. Hood’s estimated TS% in these games is 59.7%.
Compare that to the 33 games in which Hood missed his first shot, and we see an unsightly 35/31/76 shooting split for a mere 10.2 points per game. Fewer than one-third of these games resulted in 15+ points for Hood. Hood’s estimated TS% in these games is 45.3%. Yikes.
MDJ does a great job of giving a simple description of statistics and confidence intervals (analytics, Ernuh!). Statistical tests show .
The key to whether Hood will have a successful year in 2017-18 will be how quickly Quin Snyder can get him involved in the flow of the game. Getting Hood involved early with easy looks (layups and catch-and-shoot threes were the best results) will make him much more likely to have “hot” games.
Side note quick reminder: Hood was much better when a certain haircut-obsessed player was on the bench last season.
[Editor’s Note: ]
Rodney Hood with Gordon Hayward on/off:
Roughly 40% of Hood’s playing time last season was sans [first name] [last name]. In each split, pace remained relatively constant, but usage rate and efficiency skyrocketed for Hood. When not playing under the shadow of Former Player, Hood had a TS% of .555 with a 27.2% usage rate. That’s #1 option material.
The steady presence of Joe Ingles, ultimate glue guy and consummate team-first player, plus the pass-first point guard Ricky Rubio, should help Hood get easier looks to get going early and often.