Dante Exum is on the rise while Ricky Rubio is in the mire

When Dante Exum was draft four years ago, Dennis Lindsey urged the Utah fanbase to be patient. After all, the Jazz General Manager had just drafted a player who was in the throws of acne. The just out of high school athletic phenom had never played against competition even close to the level that he was about to face in the NBA. Toss in being the highest lottery pick since Deron Williams and Dante Exum had a lot of expectations to live up to. Year after year fans have wondered if this would be the year Dante Exum breaks out.

Good news. This is the year Dante Exum breaks out.

How do we know?

Because he’s doing it right now.

It might have even been last year had Exum not had the misfortune of being person who broke TJ Warren’s fall in preseason, but here we are—the present—where Dante Exum stops being a flash in the pan type of potential player and being closer to what many hoped he could be. It unfortunately comes with an awkward backdrop. The Utah Jazz might have one of the nicest and most empathetic human beings ever to grace a basketball jersey ahead of him on the depth chart: Ricky Rubio.

Rubio is the result of creating a human being from all the feelings that you can possibly feel from the movies Rudy, Up, and Marley and Me and gave them the passing ability of John Stockton. Even when he struggles, you’ll root for him. He spends a lot of his time off the court engaged in charity work. He’s the perfect locker room guy. He’s absolutely beautiful—I mean, that man bun, c’mon—and he was the fighting spirit that fueled the Utah Jazz’s comeback season last year all the way to a second round playoff appearance. Ricky Rubio is what happens if you turn Jazz DNA into a person.

Because of who Ricky is, what Ricky represents off and on the court, and how he carries himself wherever he goes, it feels incredibly callous to make any critique of the point guard no matter how truthful and necessary. It also makes what I’m about to say feel blasphemous.

It may be Dante Exum’s time to take the reigns over from Rubio and be inserted into the starting lineup.

That’s not myself saying that as one who has property on Exum island, this is from Exum forcing the issue with his play on the court.

Let’s first talk about Ricky Rubio and the bar that Exum needs to clear comfortably to make this assertion. Let’s say that Dante Exum must be better than Ricky Rubio’s best offensive season of his career which was last year. What would Dante need to display on the court?

Ricky Rubio started slow last year—as he has this year—but finished the season with averages of 16.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, and 6.5 apg. He was one fifth of two different lineups that were rated as the best lineups in the NBA after the All Star break. He was a defensive pest and even got into Russell Westbrook’s head in the playoffs. He looked as if he had found his place in Utah. So what is Dante Exum doing this year to prove he belongs?

Dante Exum has been putting up some very respectable PER36 numbers. Dante has shown he can get to the rim whenever he wants and that is with less capable floor spacers—aka people not named Joe Ingles and Donovan Mitchell—with him on the floor. While Dante averages less assists on the court, his assist numbers if he started would most likely hover around 4-6 a game. His role right now is to get buckets off the bench, that would change if he was brought into the starting lineup.

Dante’s current season so far can hang with Rubio’s full season last year. It can clear the bar if sustained. But if Rubio was having that type of season this year, we wouldn’t be having this discussion, would we? Unfortunately, Rubio has struggled out of the game this year. His start to this season is actually his worst opening seven game stretch dating all the way back to his rookie year.

While Ricky Rubio has shown in the past that you can be rewarded if you’re patient with his struggles, the Western Conference isn’t as patient or forgiving. As of writing this, the Western Conference boasts 10 teams with a .500 record or better with two playoff teams from last year—Houston and Oklahoma City—under .500 and LeBron’s Lakers under .500 as well. If there is any sign of weakness it will be exploited and no one is going to have an ounce of sympathy for a team whose point guard won’t turn it on until January.

Ricky Rubio had one game where he broke out then fell back into his early season struggling territory. Even when Ricky Rubio turns it on post All Star break and beyond, he’s not a guard that is scoring 19+ with regularity. The Utah Jazz have a pretty large sample size on what Ricky is and—for the most part—what he will be. This does not mean Ricky Rubio is a bad point guard or player. Even if Rubio was playing well, Exum is fulfilling his drafted destiny: the moment when Dante rightfully earns his place in the starting lineup because of his play not because of his draft position.

In his rookie year, Dante Exum was placed in the starting lineup not because he necessarily was ready for it, but because he needed the experience ... badly. That would be his one and only year as the Jazz’s designated starter. Soon the Jazz would bring in point guards like George Hill and, later, Ricky Rubio to keep the starting guard spot warm for Exum as he developed—and returned from injury—so that Utah could have above average veteran point guard play alongside Gordon Hayward. The latter guard—the beautiful Ricky Rubio—never got that opportunity. Rubio held down his spot last year because the Jazz were forced into patience due to low expectations and injuries. The Jazz were rewarded for that compelled patience, but this year the narrative has changed.

This year isn’t about how the Jazz are adjusting in the wake of Gordon Hayward leaving, it’s now about how do you build a contender around Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. While the Utah Jazz had the feel good team of the year and the league’s best locker room, that chemistry is not a currency that can be put into a roth IRA and saved for a rainy day.

The prevailing question during the offseason and the preseason was who could complete a possible Big 3 in Utah around the offensive and defensive pillars of Mitchell and Gobert. Some had said Rubio was a shoe-in to receive an extension because of his work in the community, his improved shooting on the court, and the locker room, but to reward an aging veteran with a big contract after an anomaly year seems counterintuitive to a Jazz general manager who is considered one of the best.

While Dennis Lindsey most certainly values those characteristics of Jazz DNA, Dante Exum’s 3 year / $33 million deal will certainly stop the Jazz dead in their tracks before they simply offer Rubio a long term deal. If Rubio is to stay with the Utah Jazz he’s not going to be a starter and not at a number higher than Dante Exum. Lindsey has had to maneuver around pouring a lot of money into virtually the same skillset with Gobert and Favors, and now he’s doing it with Rubio and Exum.

Do not be mistaken. This is a transition year, not Dennis Lindsey trying to run a proof of concept of how not to spend your money. Not with the free agency of 2019 on the horizon and free agents like Khris Middleton and Tobias Harris out there that could make Utah a modern offense and complete their hopes of a Big 3.

Making life easier for the Jazz’s front office and giving headaches to the Jazz’s coaching staff, is Ricky Rubio’s struggles through the Jazz’s first seven coupled with Dante Exum putting it all together on the court. Take a look at each players numbers for this year per game. Dante Exum is almost averaging the same numbers as Rubio in 10 less minutes a game.

These numbers exemplify Dante Exum’s offensive capabilities most. They don’t even begin to show how elite Dante Exum is on the defensive side of the ball. Ricky Rubio is crafty on the defensive end. Much like Joe Ingles he knows angles and does a great job at it. Compare that to Dante who has learned from these two players and is now using his superior athleticism and length to frustrate opponents. When Utah needed someone to slow down Derrick Rose, they went to Dante Exum. While Rose roasted Exum as much as Rubio—because he was inferno—Exum was able to prevent Rose from even getting the ball.

Right now here’s the running rotation of point guards and their stat lines since the beginning of the season:

• De’Aaron Fox - 21 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds (9.0pts on Rubio/6.0pts on Exum)
• Steph Curry - 31 points, 8 assists, 4 rebounds (11.0pts on Rubio/4.0pts on Exum)
• Mike Conley - 23 points, 4 assists, 7 rebounds (6.0pts on Rubio/0.0pts on Exum)
• Michael Carter-Williams - 7 points, 2 assists, 1 rebound (3.0pts on Rubio/0.0pts on Exum)
• Dennis Smith Jr. - 27 points, 3 assists, 1 rebound (23.0pts on Rubio/4.0pts on Exum)
• Derrick Rose - 50 points, 6 assists, 3 rebounds (21.0pts on Rubio/22.0pts on Exum)

What’s hard is that starting point guard on defense sets the tone. Some of these players—the last two point guards in particular—have got going early. You can replay that Minnesota game 99 times out of 100, that result most likely doesn’t happen. But allowing someone to get in rhythm is never in the game plan.

If Ricky Rubio continues to struggle—we’re not talking about having a stellar game every seven games—and if he continues his normal first half woes then Utah is going to unwillingly be faced with a decision. If Utah had their way, they’d like to see Dante Exum thriving with Rubio having a stellar first half—something that would be an anomaly for the Spanish point guard. But instead they are looking at a scenario in which their young phenom is surging while their crafty veteran is floundering.

Which brings me back to my earlier point, Ricky Rubio is Jazz DNA incarnate. To be any less than patient with him feels the same as spitting on the Stockton and Malone statues that stand outside of Utah Jazz’s arena. But the Western Conference is not patient. It is ruthless, hyper-competitive, and will seize on any opponent’s weakness. Right now, Utah might be reaching a crossroads with Dante Exum and Ricky Rubio 75 games and a couple playoff series sooner than they had anticipated.

Their next decision—whether to stay patient with their veteran guard who can become a free agent at the end of the season or move toward their newly signed young guard—will have a big impact on their team for the rest of the season—for better or for worse.