Grayson Allen and the Expectations of Summer League

Grayson Allen has won a HS slam dunk championship, played 4 years at Duke, attended the draft combine, and has gone through countless pre-draft workouts with NBA teams, but his first real taste of the NBA game will come on July 2nd. The NBA Summer League will kick off then in SLC, UT.

Is the Summer League important?

I wanted to know if summer league stats actually mean anything. Do they provide a glimpse into what kind of player we are getting? In order to find out, I looked up some stats of some players we are all familiar with to see if their summer league stats gave any insight onto the impact they would go on to make in real NBA games.

I decided to look at the following (12) players: Trey Burke, Alec Burks, Gordon Hayward, Raul Neto, Donovan Mitchell, Dante Exum, Trey Lyles, Rudy Robert, Tony Bradley, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, and Rodney Hood.

You should probably recognize all of these names. They are all current or former Jazz players drafted between 2010 and 2017. I chose this group because of our familiarity with them as Jazz fans. We all know what kind of player they became or what kind of potential they are showing.

So what did they show in their summer league games?

I recorded a lot more stats of these guys but I don't know how to insert charts into FanPosts so here is a list of the more telling data I found on RealGM.

  • Trey Burke: 27.0 FG%, 9.1 3P%, 87.5 FT%, 8.88 PTS/G, 6.67 PER, -23.1 NET RTG
  • Alec Burks: 43.8 FG%, 23.1 3P%, 85.5 FT%, 16.00 PTS/G, 23.05 PER, +10.2 NET RTG
  • Gordon Hayward: 61.9 FG%, 33.3 3P%, 92.9 FT%, 10.8 PTS/G, 28.13 PER, +49.8 NET RTG
  • Raul Neto: 27.3 FG%, 0.0 3P%, 62.5 FT%, 3.67 PTS/G, 6.25 PER, -24.7 NET RTG
  • Donovan Mitchell: 39.6 FG%, 31.4 3P%, 86.4 FT%, 20.4 PTS/G, 27.59 PER, +15.7 NET RTG
  • Dante Exum: 42.4 FG%, 25.7 3P%, 74.4 FT%, 12.89 PTS/G, 17.86 PER, +8.0 NET RTG
  • Trey Lyles: 34.8 FG%, 37.5 3P%, 75.0 FT%, 17.0 PTS/G, 20.96 PER, -7.1 NET RTG
  • Rudy Gobert: 64.4 FG%, 0.0 3P%, 57.1 FT%, 8.22 PTS/G, 25.22 PER, +34.4 NET RTG
  • Tony Bradley: 50.7 FG%, 0.0 3P%, 62.5 FT%, 9.62 PTS/G, 18.47 PER, +5.8 NET RTG
  • Derrick Favors: 46.7 FG%, 0.0 3P%, 64.7 FT%, 10.6 PTS/G, 12.46 PER, -10.9 NET RTG
  • Enes Kanter: 50.0 FG%, 0.0 3P%, 66.7 FT%, 10.4 PTS/G, 18.51 PER, +3.1 NET RTG
  • Rodney Hood: 46.6 FG%, 31.4 3P%, 78.9 FT%, 15.43 PTS/G, 23.54 PER, +23.9 NET RTG
NET RTG Standouts

Positive: Gordon Hayward (+49.8), Rudy Gobert (+34.4), Rodney Hood (+23.9), Donovan Mitchell (+15.7)
Negative: Raul Neto (-24.7), Trey Burke (-23.1), Derrick Favors (-10.9), Trey Lyles (-7.1)

The top players on this list by NET RTG are Gordon, Rudy, Hood and Donovan. The bottom players are Neto, Burke, Favors and Lyles. That is somewhat telling, because of the 3 super stars to come through our program, they all showed up in the NET RTG. And the 4th player on that list (Rodney Hood) was an older player and still had some very good seasons for us.

While the sample size is small, you can start to see some trends taking shape.

What Should We Expect From Grayson?

Grayson is a little older than most of these players. So he should perform well in summer league. He will be playing with a solid summer league roster and will most likely be on the floor with guys that have been in our system for a little while. He should perform well. I will specifically be looking at his FT%, 3P%, PER and NET RTG. Based on his age, I would expect him to perform somewhat similarly to Rodney Hood, who had a good summer league for us as a slightly older player.

If Grayson Allen is going to be a good pro, he is most likely going to show it during the summer league. While some good players can turn in poor summer leagues (Favors for example) it is usually because they are so young that they underperform. There are built in excuses for them. Grayson however, has no such excuses.

As far as my expectations for Grayson are concerned, I want to see him excel at the skills that we are going to need him to excel at on the Jazz. We don't need him to be a primary scorer or rack up tons of assists. We need an all around game and for him to make winning plays. We will also need an efficient, low volume shooter. So here is what I am hoping to see from him given his age and role:

FT% above 80.0 (elite: above 90.0)

3P% above 33.3 (elite: above 40.0)

PER above 20.0 (elite: above 25.0)

NET RTG above +10.0 (elite: above +30.0)

Tantrums below 0.5 (elite: help the elderly to their seats before games)

If he can hit those minimums and also get one of those categories in the elite range, I will be happy with his outlook.

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.