FanPost

Jazz Offense Sans Rubio

This was originally written as a response to cchappell18 with regards to the Jazz offense being not as good since Ricky Rubio went out. I've changed the language of it as to be more applicable to the entire community

What I'm NOT Arguing:

The Jazz are better without Rubio

That the numbers over a six-game sample are 100% meaningful.

Anything about spacing b/c I can't prove it without videos; although I 100% believe there is a ton video evidence of it

What I Am Arguing:

Looking at ORtg since Rubio went out is not a good way to evaluate the offense, since players are in new unexpected roles, specifically players like Grayson Allen, AND b/c ORtg over the course of six is going to heavily swing with several misses or several makes.

This is an attempt to create a more nuanced conversation. Please feel free to look at other lineups over the past five games.

LINEUP ONE:

Normal Starting Lineup With Rubio ORtg: 97.5

Starting Lineup with O'Neale and No Rubio: 109.8

One of the go-to arguments (and a valid one--please don't intuit anything about my tone here) is that Derrick Favors with the starting unit is what hurts the offense. These numbers with O'Neale (albeit small in sample) suggest that maybe the offense with DM has been pretty damn good--3 points better than the team's overall rating and 12 points better offensively with just that lineup.

LINEUP TWO:

Then, take a simple look at the key bench unit of Exum, Ingles, Korver, Favors, and Crowder. Subtract Exum and add Grayson Allen and that lineup has a net negative of -8.6 per 100 possessions. Factor in that GA isn't playing well and Crowder missed every shot for a week, and you can see what that lineup is struggling and perhaps tanking the overall ORtg of the team.

The idea that the offense hasn't been as good with Mitchell as it was with Rubio isn't substantiated by ORtg overall as much as it begs the question to look at real lineup data b/c of how many players have been put in new roles. Some players are thriving in these new roles (Mitchell and O'Neale), while other players aren't (Grayson Allen)and while other players like Crowder forget how to shoot for a long enough time in a small enough sample so as to possibly drastically swing numbers.

If you got other lineups to look at inside of this 5-6 game sample (one of the games is with Neto starting and DM getting the backup PG minutes), please post 'em.

If anyone knows how to do it, it may be worth looking at the overall offensive rating of DM lineups exclusively, so as to filter out any lineups with Grayson Allen or someone else at point.

All comments are the opinion of the commenter and not necessarily that of SLC Dunk or SB Nation.