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To Extend or not to Extend? The Rudy Gobert Edition

TL;DR -- Extend

Hooped Up

The Rookie Extension Deadline is rapidly approaching for the Utah Jazz. They only have until Halloween to extend the scariest center in the league. On the heels of Dennis Schroeder’s extension, I’m wondering whether or not one will get done for The Stifle Tower. If so, will Rudy get paid, or will Rudy get PAID?! For comparison, here are the stats and contracts of the players from the 2013 NBA Draft that have already received an extension:

C.J. McCollum

Rookie Year: 12.5 mpg, 5.3 pts, 0.7 ast, 1.3 reb, 0.4 stl, .416 fg%, .375 3pt%, 95 ORtg, 109 DRtg

2nd Year: 15.7 mpg, 6.8 pts, 1.0 ast, 1.5 reb, 0.7 stl, .436 fg%, .396 3pt%, 103 ORtg, 105 DRtg

3rd Year: 34.8 mpg, 20.8 pts, 4.3 ast, 3.2 reb, 1.2 stl, .448 fg%, .417 3pt%, 108 ORtg, 110 DRtg

McCollum received a “mini-max” extension to the terms of 106 million over 4 years, or 26.5 a year on average. My dreams don’t even know how to make that much money. Moving on…

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Rookie Year: 24.6 mpg, 6.8 pts, 1.9 ast, 4.4 reb, 0.8 stl, 0.8 blk, .414 fg%, 99 ORtg, 110 DRtg

2nd Year: 31.4 mpg, 12.7 pts, 2.6 ast, 6.7 reb, 0.9 stl, 1.0 blk, .491 fg%, 105 ORtg, 101 DRtg

3rd Year: 35.3 mpg, 16.9 pts, 4.3 ast, 7.7 reb, 1.2 stl, 1.4 blk, .506 fg%, 109 ORtg, 106 DRtg

Giannis AllTheButtonsOnTheKeyoard took slightly less than the max with his extension, netting 100 million over the next 4 years. That’s 25 million a year.

Dennis Schroeder

Rookie Year: 13.1 mpg, 3.7 pts, 1.9 ast, 1.2 reb, 0.3 stl, .383 fg%, .238 3pt%, 83 ORtg, 110 DRtg

2nd year: 19.7 mpg, 10.0 pts, 4.1 ast, 2.1 reb, 0.6 stl, .427 fg%, .351 3pt%, 101 ORtg, 106 DRtg

3rd Year: 20.3 mpg, 11.0 pts, 4.4 ast, 2.6 reb, 0.9 stl, .421 fg%, .322 3pt%, 97 ORtf, 103 DRtg

Schroeder got considerably less than the first two players who cashed in on extensions. I can’t feel too bad for him though, as he will still get 70 million over 4 years, or 17.5 million a year. (Remember when we thought Gordon got overpaid? 17.5 > 16)

For more comparisons, here were the big men most similar to Rudy that signed free agent deals over the summer.

Andre Drummond

Last Year: 32.9 mpg, 16.2 pts, 14.8 reb, 1.5 stl, 1.4 blk, .521 fg%, .355 ft% (!), 103 ORtg, 98DRtg

Drummond will get 26 million a year over the next 5 years for a total of 130 million.

Hassan Whiteside

Last Year: 29.1 mpg, 14.2 pts, 11.8 reb, 0.6 stl, 3.7 blk, .606 fg%, .650 ft%, 117 ORtg, 95 DRtg

Whiteside got a significant raise, and is making 98 million over 4 years, good for 24.5 a year.

Dwight Howard

Last Year: 32.1 mpg, 13.7 pts, 11.8 reb, 1.0 stl, 1.6 blk, .620 fg%, .489 ft%, 111 ORtg, 104 DRtg

The Hawks gave out a 3 year 70.5 million dollar contract, which will average Dwight 23.5 million a year.

Here’s how our own French Rejection has looked over his career:

Rudy Gobert

Rookie Year: 9.6 mpg, 2.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 0.2 stl, 0.9 blk, .486 fg%, .492 ft%, 94 ORtg, 104 DRtg

2nd Year: 26.3 mpg, 8.4 pts, 9.5 reb, 0.8 stl, 2.3 blk, .604 fg%, .623 ft%, 122 ORtg, 98 DRtg

3rd Year: 31.7 mpg, 9.1 pts, 11.0 reb, 0.7 stl, 2.2 blk, .559 fg%, .569 ft%, 112 ORtg, 99 DRtg

There is no doubt that Rudy is going to get big time money. I think his lack of offensive production allows the Jazz Brass to negotiate with him to some extent, but after seeing the other numbers there is no doubt that he is due a ginormous raise.

Andrew Bailey from B/R averaged the player rankings from CBS, SI, B/R, 538, Today’s Fastbreak, SLAM, and BBallBreakdown, and Rudy came in as the 33rd best player in the league. Hassan Whiteside was 37th, Andre Drummond was 28th, and Greek Freak was 26th. He only ranked the top 40 players, but I imagine CJ McCollum (underrated) was very close to 40, and Schroeder and Dwight I’d probably put in the 50-60 range.

Rudy came in as the 3rd highest ranked player of the group I’ve assessed, which means he’ll likely get 98-106 million on his next contract. He looks like he is in for a big season this year, so the question is no longer IF he will get a max contract, but who will give it to him. Personally, I believe a message should be sent to Hayward and others that the Jazz are serious about winning by paying our defensive anchor and emotional leader.

Would you extend Gobert? And how much would you pay the man?