NBA ESPN Player Rank: Breaking down the Top 30 Forwards and Centers not named LeBron James, and why you can't sleep on Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap

Okay, let's get some things out in the open. The Miami Heat 's LeBron James is the best player in the NBA. He can play every position. There's no point in looking into his stats. ESPN is the most popular Sports organization in the World, and their website attracts a lot of talent. They used a committee of over 100 "experts" and came up with a ranking for every player in the NBA this off-season. While you can't argue against LeBron or look into it, you can look into the committee results.

According to the ESPN rankings there are like 30 guys better than Utah Jazz bigs Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. Well, not exactly, but they are not highly regarded compared to other forwards and centers. Big Al is our best player, and ranked #44 over all, and #25 out of this group of forwards and centers. Paul is ranked #53, and #30 respectively. Guys like Nene, Ry Anderson, and Deng are apparently better. No, personally, I like numbers. These rankings are feelings, and I don't think there is much value to them because not everyone used their damn brains when making their rankings.

Science, and quantitative measurements are better than some misremembered glory years. As a result, there are a lot of people who make these rankings who are pretty damn dumb. These aren't all-time rankings either. These are rankings for the 2012-2013 season. And the quantitative measures to use are the statistics from the 2011-2012 season. I think that performance means more than either preference or perception. We feel things, but we can feel wrongly about things.

A huge part of performance is on court production. And as a result, if we're using on court production as a metric of ranking who is better than someone else -- you are an absolute idiot, ignorant, or basketball novice if you sleep on Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. And their ESPN ranking reflects that bombastic statement fully. Based on the on court production from last year, if you think a dude like Hibbert, or Ibaka, or Deng, or Nene are better than BOTH Big Al and Sap then you are an idiot. I love Hibbert, Ibaka, and them all . . . but I live in reality. And reality is based upon observed and measured facts with a frame of reference. And if your ranking has these two Jazz players near the bottom then your ranking - and very idea and concept of reality - is flawed and useless.

Again, this is based upon on court production from last year - the one major, quantitative metric we have with which to rank these players with. If you love one guy over another because of some TV Ad, or dunk, or poem then that's fine. You are allowed to be wrong. But at least know you are wrong.

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All of the God-damn Numbers:

Here are a lot of numbers, but I said there were going to be numbers in this post. I don't think you can argue against K-Love here. He was a statistical beast. The rest of the Top 10 though? All great players, but perhaps more great in perception, than production. And again, this entire rant is based upon production, not some misremembered values of how great you think a player is from their play in previous seasons, or shoe Ads or whatever.

	ESPN Rank	Player	Team	G	MPG	PER	.	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	.	FG%	PPS	USG%	ORTG	DRTG	WS
1	7	Kevin Love	Timberwolves	55	39.0	25.4		26.0	13.3	2.0	0.9	0.5		44.8%	1.35	28.8%	117	104	10.0
2	11	Dirk Nowitzki	Mavericks	62	33.5	21.7		16.7	6.8	2.2	0.7	0.5		45.7%	1.30	29.2%	110	103	7.6
3	13	Andrew Bynum	76ers	60	35.2	22.9		18.7	11.8	1.4	0.5	1.9		55.8%	1.41	23.8%	112	100	8.0
4	14	Blake Griffin	Clippers	66	36.2	23.4		20.7	10.9	3.2	0.8	0.7		54.9%	1.34	26.6%	113	104	9.2
5	15	Pau Gasol	Lakers	65	37.4	20.5		17.4	10.4	3.7	0.6	1.4		50.1%	1.23	22.1%	112	103	8.3
6	17	Carmelo Anthony	Knicks	55	34.1	21.1		22.6	6.3	3.6	1.1	0.4		43.0%	1.21	31.8%	106	102	6.2
7	18	Chris Bosh	Heat	57	35.2	18.9		18.0	7.9	1.8	0.9	0.8		48.7%	1.27	24.2%	109	100	6.9
8	20	LaMarcus Aldridge	Trail Blazers	55	36.3	22.7		21.7	8.0	2.4	0.9	0.8		51.2%	1.26	27.0%	113	106	7.0
9	21	Kevin Garnett	Celtics	60	31.1	20.4		15.8	8.2	2.9	0.9	1.0		50.3%	1.22	24.9%	106	94	6.9
10	24	Tyson Chandler	Knicks	62	33.2	18.7		11.3	9.9	0.9	0.9	1.4		67.9%	1.97	13.0%	130	99	9.5
	ESPN Rank	Player	Team	G	MPG	PER		PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG		FG%	PPS	USG%	ORTG	DRTG	WS
11	24	Marc Gasol	Grizzlies	65	36.5	18.4		14.6	8.9	3.1	1.0	1.9		48.2%	1.29	23.1%	111	99	8.2
12	27	Tim Duncan	Spurs	58	28.2	22.5		15.4	9.0	2.3	0.7	1.5		48.2%	1.22	26.2%	108	99	5.9
13	29	Paul Pierce	Celtics	61	34.0	19.6		19.4	5.2	4.5	1.1	0.4		44.3%	1.33	28.1%	106	99	7.0
14	30	Al Horford	Hawks	11	31.6	19.0		12.4	7.0	2.2	0.9	1.3		55.3%	1.32	17.9%	116	100	1.3
15	31	Josh Smith	Hawks	66	35.3	21.1		18.8	9.6	3.9	1.4	1.7		45.8%	1.13	28.4%	101	96	6.8
16	32	Rudy Gay	Grizzlies	65	37.3	17.8		19.0	6.4	2.3	1.5	0.8		45.5%	1.15	25.1%	104	102	6.0
17	34	Zach Randolph	Grizzlies	28	26.3	17.9		11.6	8.0	1.7	0.8	0.1		46.3%	1.14	22.4%	106	101	2.1
18	35	Roy Hibbert	Pacers	65	29.8	19.3		12.8	8.8	1.7	0.5	2.0		49.7%	1.25	21.1%	109	101	6.2
19	36	Joakim Noah	Bulls	64	30.4	19.6		10.2	9.8	2.5	0.6	1.4		50.8%	1.33	15.8%	120	96	9.0
20	37	Luol Deng	Bulls	54	39.4	14.1		15.3	6.5	2.9	1.0	0.7		41.2%	1.10	19.8%	105	100	5.8
	ESPN Rank	Player	Team	G	MPG	PER		PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG		FG%	PPS	USG%	ORTG	DRTG	WS
21	39	Danny Granger	Pacers	62	33.3	18.6		18.7	5.0	1.8	1.0	0.6		41.6%	1.23	25.9%	111	104	6.7
22	41	Serge Ibaka	Thunder	66	27.2	19.0		9.1	7.5	0.4	0.5	3.7		53.5%	1.23	15.7%	113	98	6.2
23	42	DeMarcus Cousins	Kings	64	30.5	21.7		18.1	11.0	1.6	1.5	1.2		44.8%	1.16	29.7%	102	104	4.2
24	43	Amare Stoudemire	Knicks	47	32.8	17.7		17.5	7.8	1.1	0.8	1.0		48.3%	1.26	25.4%	104	101	4.1
25	44	Al Jefferson	Jazz	61	34.0	22.8		19.2	9.6	2.2	0.8	1.7		49.2%	1.12	25.7%	112	103	7.5
26	45	Andrew Bogut	Warriors	12	30.3	14.9		11.3	8.3	2.6	1.0	2.0		44.9%	1.00	20.6%	94	100	0.5
27	49	Greg Monroe	Pistons	66	31.5	22.0		15.4	9.7	2.3	1.3	0.7		52.1%	1.30	23.6%	110	102	7.0
28	50	Ryan Anderson	Hornets	61	32.2	21.2		16.1	7.7	0.9	0.8	0.4		43.9%	1.29	21.2%	124	105	8.9
29	52	Nene	Wizards	39	28.4	18.6		13.7	7.5	2.1	1.1	1.0		53.7%	1.36	22.6%	105	103	2.7
30	53	Paul Millsap	Jazz	64	32.8	21.8		16.6	8.8	2.3	1.8	0.8		49.5%	1.23	23.2%	113	102	7.8
		Thirty Player Averages:		55.9	33.1	20.1		16.5	8.5	2.3	0.9	1.1		49.0%	1.27	23.8%	110	101	6.5

The people I really have a problem with, who are ranked better than Big Al are: Amare, Serge, Danny G, Luol, Noah, Hibbert, Z-Bo, Horford, The Truth, Marc G, Chandler, LMA, and Bosh. You could argue that as a no-defense playing scorer, maybe better than Melo too. It's criminal to suggest that Ryan and Nene are better than Sap. And Sap is better than a number of guys higher than Big Al too. If you think I'm wrong that's fine, but at the very least accept these two facts:

According to ESPN NBA Player ranks, Sap is the lowest guy on this list. And by his stats, he's at the very least AVERAGE (check out his numbers vs. the averages) in everything -- which means he should be between #15 and #16, not #30. If you choose to disagree with those two statements (that ESPN has him ranked lowest out of these 30 guys, and that his numbers indicated that he is average, and not last) then you probably failed math and logic and reading comprehension too. And this blog probably isn't for you, you should go watch some Honey Boo Boo. Using your brain is beyond you.

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Player Efficiency Rating

Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is one of the most important "new" statistics in basketball that have been developed over the last few decades. No website champions PER like ESPN does. And the 104 experts at ESPN aren't even smart enough to look at the pet stat of the network . . .when you rank the players by PER (from highest to lowest) you get some hilarious results.

Rank by Player Efficiency Rating
	Player	Team	PER	ESPN Rank
1	Kevin Love	Timberwolves	25.4	7
2	Blake Griffin	Clippers	23.4	14
3	Andrew Bynum	76ers	22.9	13
4	Al Jefferson	Jazz	22.8	44
5	LaMarcus Aldridge	Trail Blazers	22.7	20
6	Tim Duncan	Spurs	22.5	27
7	Greg Monroe	Pistons	22.0	49
8	Paul Millsap	Jazz	21.8	53
9	Dirk Nowitzki	Mavericks	21.7	11
10	DeMarcus Cousins	Kings	21.7	42
	Player	Team	PER	ESPN Rank
11	Ryan Anderson	Hornets	21.2	50
12	Carmelo Anthony	Knicks	21.1	17
13	Josh Smith	Hawks	21.1	31
14	Pau Gasol	Lakers	20.5	15
15	Kevin Garnett	Celtics	20.4	21
16	Paul Pierce	Celtics	19.6	29
17	Joakim Noah	Bulls	19.6	36
18	Roy Hibbert	Pacers	19.3	35
19	Al Horford	Hawks	19.0	30
20	Serge Ibaka	Thunder	19.0	41
	Player	Team	PER	ESPN Rank
21	Chris Bosh	Heat	18.9	18
22	Tyson Chandler	Knicks	18.7	24
23	Danny Granger	Pacers	18.6	39
24	Nene	Wizards	18.6	52
25	Marc Gasol	Grizzlies	18.4	24
26	Zach Randolph	Grizzlies	17.9	34
27	Rudy Gay	Grizzlies	17.8	32
28	Amare Stoudemire	Knicks	17.7	43
29	Andrew Bogut	Warriors	14.9	45
30	Luol Deng	Bulls	14.1	37

Let's take a look at this on a graph . . . by rank it works for Kevin Love as he's #1 in NBA Rank for this group of 30, and #1 in this group of 30 in highest PER.

Looking at just the Top 10 in PER, almost half of them are at the bottom of the ESPN rankings, while Dirk is wildly overrated statistically. I guess that's what winning championships get you. Perception vs. Production. Also, note that both Big Al and Sap are Top 10 here, but Bottom 10 in ESPN rank.

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Some people hate PER

PER is not PER-fect. I agree. What about production, raw production? I don't know if Pure Production Rating is a real thing. I made it up. PPR is the sum of your PPG, RPG, APG, SPG, and BPG divided by your MPG. If you re-rank these 30 guys by PPR guess what you get?

Rank by Pure Production Rating*
	Player	Team	PPR	ESPN Rank
1	DeMarcus Cousins	Kings	1.095	42
2	Kevin Love	Timberwolves	1.095	7
3	Tim Duncan	Spurs	1.025	27
4	Josh Smith	Hawks	1.003	31
5	Blake Griffin	Clippers	1.003	14
6	Carmelo Anthony	Knicks	0.997	17
7	Al Jefferson	Jazz	0.985	44
8	Andrew Bynum	76ers	0.974	13
9	Greg Monroe	Pistons	0.933	49
10	LaMarcus Aldridge	Trail Blazers	0.931	20
	Player	Team	PPR	ESPN Rank
11	Kevin Garnett	Celtics	0.926	21
12	Paul Millsap	Jazz	0.924	53
13	Paul Pierce	Celtics	0.900	29
14	Pau Gasol	Lakers	0.896	15
15	Nene	Wizards	0.894	52
16	Roy Hibbert	Pacers	0.866	35
17	Amare Stoudemire	Knicks	0.860	43
18	Zach Randolph	Grizzlies	0.844	34
19	Chris Bosh	Heat	0.835	18
20	Andrew Bogut	Warriors	0.832	13
	Player	Team	PPR	ESPN Rank
21	Danny Granger	Pacers	0.814	39
22	Marc Gasol	Grizzlies	0.808	24
23	Joakim Noah	Bulls	0.806	36
24	Ryan Anderson	Hornets	0.804	50
25	Rudy Gay	Grizzlies	0.804	32
26	Dirk Nowitzki	Mavericks	0.803	11
27	Serge Ibaka	Thunder	0.779	41
28	Al Horford	Hawks	0.753	30
29	Tyson Chandler	Knicks	0.735	24
30	Luol Deng	Bulls	0.670	37

Yes, Big Al is Top 10 here, and Millsap is barely out of the Top 10 as well, he's in-between two HOFers in Garnett and Pierce. Does that make Sap a HOFer? No. But his production last season was similar to that some pretty elite people. Dirk sucks here too. So do a ton of people who were ranked over Big Al and Sap.

But this is just a rate based upon the idea that they'll play equal time. This is not the case. The best player play more than average players. The best players help their teams win. So let's look at win shares.

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Rank by Win Shares

At the end of the day, the best players help their teams win the most games.

Rank by Win Shares
	Player	Team	WS	ESPN Rank
1	Kevin Love	Timberwolves	10.0	7
2	Tyson Chandler	Knicks	9.5	24
3	Blake Griffin	Clippers	9.2	14
4	Joakim Noah	Bulls	9.0	36
5	Ryan Anderson	Hornets	8.9	50
6	Pau Gasol	Lakers	8.3	15
7	Marc Gasol	Grizzlies	8.2	24
8	Andrew Bynum	76ers	8.0	13
9	Paul Millsap	Jazz	7.8	53
10	Dirk Nowitzki	Mavericks	7.6	11
	Player	Team	WS	ESPN Rank
11	Al Jefferson	Jazz	7.5	44
12	LaMarcus Aldridge	Trail Blazers	7.0	20
13	Paul Pierce	Celtics	7.0	29
14	Greg Monroe	Pistons	7.0	49
15	Chris Bosh	Heat	6.9	18
16	Kevin Garnett	Celtics	6.9	21
17	Josh Smith	Hawks	6.8	31
18	Danny Granger	Pacers	6.7	39
19	Carmelo Anthony	Knicks	6.2	17
20	Roy Hibbert	Pacers	6.2	35
	Player	Team	WS	ESPN Rank
21	Serge Ibaka	Thunder	6.2	41
22	Rudy Gay	Grizzlies	6.0	32
23	Tim Duncan	Spurs	5.9	27
24	Luol Deng	Bulls	5.8	37
25	DeMarcus Cousins	Kings	4.2	42
26	Amare Stoudemire	Knicks	4.1	43
27	Nene	Wizards	2.7	52
28	Zach Randolph	Grizzlies	2.1	34
29	Al Horford	Hawks	1.3	30
30	Andrew Bogut	Warriors	0.5	45

Wow, Sap is #9, and Al is #11? Not bad for the #25th and #30th best bigs last year. But what the heck is a win share? Bobby ESPN Intern and Uncle Dale haven't heard of Win shares. Let's keep it simple, egg head.

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Flat out averages:

I don't understand rates. I don't understand advanced statistics. I don't know what "an analytic" is. The only think that matters is points. But I love the Thunder and Ibaka, so blocks count too. And I love the T-Wolves and Love, so boards are important as well. Okay, whatever. If you are using statistics, the only ones that matter are Fantasy Sport averages. Clearly this will justify ESPN NBA Player rank, and show just how pathetic and accurately ranked Big Al and Millsap are!

PPG + RPG + APG + SPG + BPG
	Player	Team	PRASB/Gm	ESPN Rank
1	Kevin Love	Timberwolves	42.7	7
2	Blake Griffin	Clippers	36.3	14
3	Josh Smith	Hawks	35.4	31
4	Andrew Bynum	76ers	34.3	13
5	Carmelo Anthony	Knicks	34.0	17
6	LaMarcus Aldridge	Trail Blazers	33.8	20
7	Al Jefferson	Jazz	33.5	44
8	Pau Gasol	Lakers	33.5	15
9	DeMarcus Cousins	Kings	33.4	42
10	Paul Pierce	Celtics	30.6	29
11	Paul Millsap	Jazz	30.3	53
12	Rudy Gay	Grizzlies	30.0	32
13	Marc Gasol	Grizzlies	29.5	24
14	Greg Monroe	Pistons	29.4	49
15	Chris Bosh	Heat	29.4	18
16	Tim Duncan	Spurs	28.9	27
17	Kevin Garnett	Celtics	28.8	21
18	Amare Stoudemire	Knicks	28.2	43
19	Danny Granger	Pacers	27.1	39
20	Dirk Nowitzki	Mavericks	26.9	11
21	Luol Deng	Bulls	26.4	37
22	Ryan Anderson	Hornets	25.9	50
23	Roy Hibbert	Pacers	25.8	35
24	Nene	Wizards	25.4	52
25	Andrew Bogut	Warriors	25.2	45
26	Joakim Noah	Bulls	24.5	36
27	Tyson Chandler	Knicks	24.4	24
28	Al Horford	Hawks	23.8	30
29	Zach Randolph	Grizzlies	22.2	34
30	Serge Ibaka	Thunder	21.2	41

Hmm. So they are #7 and #11 here too? Not #25 and #30? I don't believe it. Ibaka is better. So is Deng. Dirk is a champion. Even the simplest stats must lie.I only care about perception, not production or on court performance.

I was wrong to read this far down. ESPN always has the best experts. Just not the ones who use stats. Stats are the devil. Because stats show that it's wrong to sleep on Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap -- and they are better than some of my favorite players, my favs who are better because of implied ability and media popularity. Also LaMarcus is an All-Star big and better than Big Al numerically by producing less on the court except for this last set of values. Deng is not over rated statistically either! The Jazz suck! Everyone on their team is a white guy and they are boring! Hee hee hee. Oh, Honey Boo Boo is on. Got to go!

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Last thing: Paul Millsap is THE WORST PLAYER OUT OF ALL OF THESE PLAYERS! ESPN NBA RANKINGS ROOL!