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I wanted to apologize to the readers, active participants, lurkers, my team, my cohorts, my fellow bloggers, and to all the national writers who read SB Nation sites like this one. I'm going to post better articles. Hopefully starting with this one. Right now the Utah Jazz are struggling, starting the NBA season at 0-5. There are some good reasons to explain away the record (playing playoff teams for the most part, and being injured); but invariably some people will point to the head coach as a primary factor. I don't know how valid it is, I have my own beliefs -- but I don't really have any quantitative evidence to support my beliefs. What I do have is two-fold: we have the idea that for this season we should look beyond wins and losses to evaluate the progress of the Utah Jazz; and secondly, we have decades of data on ABA/NBA head coaches.
At the end of the season we can figure out if our players are playing better. And at the end of the season we can figure out if head coach Tyrone Corbin is better too. (N.B. The Jazz also did not extend HIS contract, so he may be looking for a new job in 77 games) Part of what will help evaluate him would be to evaluate him against the vast history of NBA coaches who have come before him. So that's precisely what I searched for. The following is a very long (n=130+) list of coaches who have held their job for at least part of three seasons. It's not an all inclusive list because, c'mon, the data gathering for this thing started at 3:30 am today. For these coaches I calculated their Win / Loss record for their first 3-4 seasons, cumulative with their regular season and playoff careers to that point. (3-4 yrs because Ty is in his 4th season as head coach, but came into it halfway through one season, then had to coach in a lockout shortened year. I'm trying to give you the benefit of the doubt here, dawg.)
What I've found is that, well, Tyrone may or may not be right where he needs to be in W/L this year to stick around in the NBA for a few years longer. I've also broken down the win% by era of head coach start, and well, that's where some of the data is less forgiving. While I've felt like wins and losses this year are not the point -- if Ty does want to keep stride with his peers I've also calculated just how many wins Ty needs to keep, in order to keep his head above water.
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Tyrone Corbin:
Tyrone Corbin was 3rd in line to the throne back when Jerry Sloan was the head coach. For decades the coaching helm was supposed to go to Phil Johnson, Jerry's XO. But Phil decided to ride off into the sunset with his longtime friend and colleague. Ty was selected to succeed them. But has he succeeded as an actual NBA head coach? That depends on which side of the media veil you sit on (some say no, others vehemently claim the opposite). I have a feeling that Corbin was to be a sacrificial lamb, but the Jazz could not justify moving beyond Ty after he made the playoffs in that lockout year (when the Jazz moved up from 12th in the West to 8th due to teams ahead of us tanking).
I am frustrated by the mistakes Corbin makes as a head coach, but I am also frustrated by the situation he was put into. But, it's not about the present now that we've scuttled the mercenary roster that Kevin O'Connor cobbled together in the aftermath of moving Deron Williams. It's, really, about the future. So can Tyrone Corbin be the head coach of the future? Because we endeavor to be rational empiricists before we can project the future we have to build a quantitative frame of reference from historical facts.
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BEHOLD:
This is the cumulative win/loss record of NBA/ABA head coaches who coached for at least three different years in their coaching careers -- but limited to just their first three (or four if available) seasons at the helm. It's a combined regular season and playoff record, because things like the playoffs matter in the real world. (The point, by the way, is to win the title, not be happy with an 8th seed)
Head Coach | 1st season | # Season | # Games | W | L | % | |
1 | Phil Jackson | 1989 - 1990 | 4 | 402 | 295 | 107 | 73.4% |
2 | Pat Riley | 1981 - 1982 | 4 | 386 | 273 | 113 | 70.7% |
3 | Avery Johnson | 2004 - 2005 | 4 | 311 | 217 | 94 | 69.8% |
4 | John Kundla | 1948 - 1949 | 4 | 304 | 209 | 95 | 68.8% |
5 | Billy Cunningham | 1977 - 1978 | 4 | 375 | 253 | 122 | 67.5% |
6 | Paul Westphal | 1992 - 1993 | 4 | 323 | 216 | 107 | 66.9% |
7 | Larry Bird | 1997 - 1998 | 3 | 268 | 179 | 89 | 66.8% |
8 | Rick Adelman | 1988 - 1989 | 4 | 343 | 228 | 115 | 66.5% |
9 | Tom Thibodeau | 2010 - 2011 | 4 | 267 | 174 | 93 | 65.2% |
10 | Joe Mullaney | 1969 - 1970 | 4 | 387 | 247 | 140 | 63.8% |
11 | Rudy Tomjanovich | 1991 - 1992 | 4 | 333 | 212 | 121 | 63.7% |
12 | Mike Brown | 2005 - 2006 | 4 | 388 | 247 | 141 | 63.7% |
13 | Brian Hill | 1993 - 1994 | 4 | 334 | 209 | 122 | 63.1% |
14 | Erik Spoelstra | 2008 - 2009 | 4 | 368 | 228 | 140 | 62.0% |
15 | Kevin Loughery | 1972 - 1973 | 4 | 315 | 194 | 121 | 61.6% |
16 | Tom Heinsohn | 1969 - 1970 | 4 | 352 | 214 | 138 | 60.8% |
17 | Rick Carlisle | 2001 - 2002 | 4 | 384 | 233 | 151 | 60.7% |
18 | Stan Van Gundy | 2003 - 2004 | 4 | 305 | 185 | 120 | 60.7% |
19 | Bill Russell | 1966 - 1967 | 4 | 373 | 226 | 147 | 60.6% |
20 | Frank Vogel | 2010 - 2011 | 4 | 224 | 133 | 91 | 59.4% |
21 | Jeff Van Gundy | 1995 - 1996 | 4 | 285 | 166 | 119 | 58.2% |
22 | Paul Westhead | 1979 - 1980 | 4 | 262 | 152 | 110 | 58.0% |
23 | Danny Ainge | 1996 - 1997 | 4 | 247 | 143 | 104 | 57.9% |
24 | Scott Brooks | 2008 - 2009 | 4 | 342 | 198 | 144 | 57.9% |
25 | Gregg Popovich | 1996 - 1997 | 4 | 323 | 185 | 138 | 57.3% |
26 | Jerry West | 1976 - 1977 | 3 | 268 | 153 | 115 | 57.1% |
27 | Fred Schaus | 1960 - 1961 | 4 | 362 | 206 | 156 | 56.9% |
28 | Butch Van Breda Kolff | 1967 - 1968 | 4 | 361 | 204 | 157 | 56.5% |
29 | Chris Ford | 1990 - 1991 | 4 | 353 | 199 | 154 | 56.4% |
30 | Jack McMahon | 1962 - 1963 | 4 | 297 | 167 | 130 | 56.2% |
31 | Doug Moe | 1976 - 1977 | 4 | 334 | 186 | 148 | 55.7% |
32 | Joe Lapchick | 1947 - 1948 | 4 | 270 | 149 | 121 | 55.2% |
33 | Mike D'Antoni | 1989 - 1999 | 4 | 310 | 170 | 140 | 54.8% |
34 | K.C. Jones | 1972 - 1973 | 4 | 365 | 199 | 166 | 54.5% |
35 | Doug Collins | 1986 - 1987 | 4 | 361 | 196 | 165 | 54.3% |
36 | Larry Drew | 2010 - 2011 | 4 | 257 | 139 | 118 | 54.1% |
37 | Slick Leonard | 1962 - 1963 | 4 | 307 | 166 | 141 | 54.1% |
38 | Dave Cowens | 1978 - 1979 | 4 | 259 | 140 | 119 | 54.1% |
39 | Lawrence Frank | 2003 - 2004 | 4 | 324 | 175 | 149 | 54.0% |
40 | Cotton Fitzsimmons | 1970 - 1971 | 4 | 334 | 180 | 154 | 53.9% |
41 | Babe McCarthy | 1967 - 1968 | 4 | 356 | 191 | 165 | 53.7% |
42 | Jim O'Brien | 2000 - 2001 | 4 | 284 | 152 | 132 | 53.5% |
43 | Dick Motta | 1968 - 1969 | 4 | 344 | 184 | 160 | 53.5% |
44 | Mike Schuler | 1986 - 1987 | 4 | 301 | 160 | 141 | 53.2% |
45 | Maurice Cheeks | 2001 - 2002 | 4 | 311 | 165 | 146 | 53.1% |
46 | Byron Scott | 2000 - 2001 | 4 | 328 | 174 | 154 | 53.0% |
47 | Gene Rhodes | 1967 - 1968 | 4 | 262 | 138 | 124 | 52.7% |
48 | Ray Scott | 1972 - 1973 | 4 | 291 | 151 | 140 | 51.9% |
49 | Jack Ramsay | 1968 - 1969 | 4 | 345 | 179 | 166 | 51.9% |
50 | Chuck Daly | 1981 - 1982 | 4 | 305 | 158 | 147 | 51.8% |
51 | Gene Shue | 1966 - 1967 | 4 | 313 | 162 | 151 | 51.8% |
52 | Doc Rivers | 1999 - 2000 | 4 | 343 | 175 | 168 | 51.0% |
53 | Nate McMillan | 2000 - 2001 | 4 | 318 | 162 | 156 | 50.9% |
54 | Don Nelson | 1976 - 1977 | 4 | 326 | 166 | 160 | 50.9% |
55 | Scott Skiles | 1999 - 2000 | 4 | 272 | 138 | 134 | 50.7% |
56 | Bill Sharman | 1966 - 1967 | 4 | 367 | 186 | 181 | 50.7% |
57 | Allan Bristow | 1991 - 1992 | 4 | 341 | 171 | 170 | 50.1% |
58 | Mike Fratello | 1980 - 1981 | 4 | 263 | 130 | 133 | 49.4% |
59 | Isiah Thomas | 2000 - 2001 | 4 | 343 | 169 | 174 | 49.3% |
60 | Rick Pitino | 1987 - 1988 | 4 | 309 | 151 | 158 | 48.9% |
61 | Bernie Bickerstaff | 1985 - 1986 | 4 | 355 | 173 | 182 | 48.7% |
62 | Alvin Gentry | 1994 - 1995 | 4 | 187 | 91 | 96 | 48.7% |
63 | Lenny Wilkens | 1969 - 1970 | 4 | 328 | 159 | 169 | 48.5% |
64 | Kevin McHale | 2004 - 2005 | 4 | 248 | 120 | 128 | 48.4% |
65 | Vinny Del Negro | 2008 - 2009 | 4 | 335 | 162 | 173 | 48.4% |
66 | Tom Nissalke | 1971 - 1972 | 4 | 252 | 121 | 131 | 48.0% |
67 | Matt Goukas | 1985 - 1986 | 4 | 306 | 145 | 161 | 47.4% |
68 | Jerry Sloan | 1979 - 1980 | 4 | 289 | 136 | 153 | 47.1% |
69 | Tyrone Corbin | 2010 - 2011 | 4 | 185 | 87 | 98 | 47.0% |
70 | Dan Issel | 1992 - 1993 | 4 | 292 | 137 | 155 | 46.9% |
71 | P.J. Carlesimo | 1994 - 1995 | 4 | 340 | 159 | 181 | 46.8% |
72 | Dolph Schayes | 1963 - 1964 | 4 | 343 | 160 | 183 | 46.6% |
73 | Phil Johnson | 1973 - 1974 | 4 | 310 | 144 | 166 | 46.5% |
74 | Flip Saunders | 1995 - 1996 | 4 | 288 | 133 | 155 | 46.2% |
75 | Mike Dunleavy | 1990 - 1991 | 4 | 351 | 162 | 189 | 46.2% |
76 | Buddy Jeannette | 1947 - 1948 | 4 | 228 | 105 | 123 | 46.1% |
77 | Bob Hill | 1986 - 1987 | 4 | 299 | 136 | 163 | 45.5% |
78 | Terry Porter | 2003 - 2004 | 3 | 220 | 100 | 120 | 45.5% |
79 | Jim Pollard | 1959 - 1960 | 4 | 306 | 139 | 167 | 45.4% |
80 | Dick Versace | 1988 - 1989 | 3 | 163 | 73 | 90 | 44.8% |
81 | Sam Mitchell | 2004 - 2005 | 4 | 339 | 151 | 188 | 44.5% |
82 | John Lucas | 1992 - 1993 | 4 | 321 | 142 | 179 | 44.2% |
83 | Charles Wolf | 1960 - 1961 | 4 | 335 | 148 | 187 | 44.2% |
84 | Eric Musselman | 2002 - 2003 | 3 | 246 | 108 | 138 | 43.9% |
85 | Wes Unseld | 1987 - 1988 | 4 | 306 | 133 | 173 | 43.5% |
86 | Del Harris | 1979 - 1980 | 4 | 359 | 156 | 203 | 43.5% |
87 | Butch Carter | 1997 - 1998 | 3 | 168 | 73 | 95 | 43.5% |
88 | Dick McGuire | 1959 - 1960 | 4 | 301 | 130 | 171 | 43.2% |
89 | Frank Layden | 1981 - 1982 | 4 | 329 | 142 | 187 | 43.2% |
90 | Larry Staverman | 1967 - 1968 | 3 | 135 | 58 | 77 | 43.0% |
91 | Jim Lynam | 1983 - 1984 | 4 | 267 | 114 | 153 | 42.7% |
92 | John MacLeod | 1973 - 1974 | 4 | 347 | 148 | 199 | 42.7% |
93 | Stu Jackson | 1989 - 1990 | 3 | 146 | 62 | 84 | 42.5% |
94 | Bob Weiss | 1986 - 1987 | 4 | 336 | 142 | 194 | 42.3% |
95 | Donnie Walsh | 1978 - 1979 | 3 | 145 | 61 | 84 | 42.1% |
96 | Bones McKinney | 1950 - 1951 | 3 | 165 | 69 | 96 | 41.8% |
97 | Jack McKinney | 1979 - 1980 | 4 | 262 | 109 | 153 | 41.6% |
98 | Bobby Wanzer | 1955 - 1956 | 4 | 236 | 98 | 138 | 41.5% |
99 | Jimmy Rodgers | 1988 - 1989 | 4 | 283 | 117 | 166 | 41.3% |
100 | Red Holzman | 1953 - 1954 | 4 | 211 | 87 | 124 | 41.2% |
101 | Dwane Casey | 2005 - 2006 | 4 | 270 | 110 | 160 | 40.7% |
102 | Monty Williams | 2010 - 2011 | 4 | 240 | 97 | 143 | 40.4% |
103 | Terry Stotts | 2002 - 2003 | 4 | 288 | 116 | 172 | 40.3% |
104 | George Karl | 1984 - 1985 | 4 | 309 | 124 | 185 | 40.1% |
105 | Eddie Jordan | 1996 - 1997 | 4 | 269 | 107 | 162 | 39.8% |
106 | Garry St. Jean | 1992 - 1993 | 4 | 332 | 132 | 200 | 39.8% |
107 | Willis Reed | 1977 - 1978 | 4 | 212 | 84 | 128 | 39.6% |
108 | Andrew Levane | 1952 - 1953 | 4 | 218 | 86 | 132 | 39.4% |
109 | John Calipari | 1996 - 1997 | 3 | 187 | 72 | 115 | 38.5% |
110 | Lionel Hollins | 1999 - 2000 | 4 | 185 | 71 | 114 | 38.4% |
111 | Jay Triano | 2008 - 2009 | 3 | 229 | 87 | 141 | 38.2% |
112 | Slater Martin | 1956 - 1957 | 3 | 98 | 37 | 61 | 37.8% |
113 | Don Chaney | 1984 - 1985 | 4 | 271 | 99 | 172 | 36.5% |
114 | Dave Wohl | 1985 - 1986 | 3 | 182 | 65 | 117 | 35.7% |
115 | Paul Silas | 1980 - 1981 | 4 | 281 | 100 | 181 | 35.6% |
116 | Keith Smart | 2002 - 2003 | 4 | 263 | 93 | 170 | 35.4% |
117 | Scotty Robertson | 1974 - 1975 | 4 | 205 | 72 | 133 | 35.1% |
118 | Johnny Davis | 1996 - 1997 | 4 | 219 | 73 | 146 | 33.3% |
119 | Randy Wittman | 1999 - 2000 | 4 | 288 | 96 | 192 | 33.3% |
120 | Bob MacKinnon | 1974 - 1975 | 4 | 187 | 62 | 125 | 33.2% |
121 | Darrell Walker | 1996 - 1997 | 3 | 169 | 56 | 113 | 33.1% |
122 | Jerry Reynolds | 1986 - 1987 | 4 | 170 | 56 | 114 | 32.9% |
123 | Mike Woodson | 2004 - 2005 | 4 | 335 | 109 | 226 | 32.5% |
124 | Red Kerr | 1966 - 1967 | 4 | 291 | 94 | 197 | 32.3% |
125 | George Irvine | 1984 - 1985 | 4 | 211 | 68 | 143 | 32.2% |
126 | Bill Fitch | 1970 - 1970 | 4 | 328 | 99 | 229 | 30.2% |
127 | Ron Rothstein | 1988 - 1989 | 4 | 328 | 97 | 231 | 29.6% |
128 | Gene Littles | 1985 - 1986 | 4 | 155 | 44 | 111 | 28.4% |
129 | Kurt Rambis | 1998 - 1999 | 3 | 209 | 59 | 150 | 28.2% |
130 | Sidney Lowe | 1992 - 1993 | 4 | 299 | 79 | 220 | 26.4% |
131 | Bill Musselman | 1975 - 1976 | 4 | 131 | 34 | 97 | 26.0% |
132 | Tim Floyd | 1998 - 1999 | 4 | 239 | 49 | 190 | 20.5% |
133 | Brian Williams | 1995 - 1996 | 3 | 184 | 36 | 148 | 19.6% |
Totals | 37929 | 18660 | 19265 | 49.2% |
It's a big list. Obviously, first, some of these coaches inherited crappy situations, and some of them went to teams with great players. Some teams won a lot, and others did not. There is a relationship between being a 'winning' coach and having a super star on your team. But the teams that have won the most do seem to be led by good coaches, even legendary coaches started off from somewhere. And some of these legendary coaches started off winning from the get-go.
Ty is below average, but if you look in his neighborhood there are a few guys around him who turned out okay. But thankfully we can break it down a bit more than that.
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Eras of Coaching:
It's apples and pad thai to compare some coaches from the era directly after WWII to coaches of today. The game is vastly changed. So here we'll see the differences between the eras, and their respective winning percentages.
Coaching period | n = | G | W | L | % |
All NBA/ABA | 133 | 37,929 | 18,660 | 19,265 | 49.2% |
Started in 1980 --> | 83 | 23,578 | 11,462 | 12,112 | 48.6% |
Started in 1990 --> | 59 | 16,759 | 8,338 | 8,417 | 49.8% |
Started in 2000 --> | 27 | 7,952 | 4,091 | 386 | 51.5% |
Started in 2010 --> | 5 | 1,173 | 630 | 543 | 53.7% |
Ty Corbin | 1 | 185 | 87 | 98 | 47.0% |
Oh, well, for whatever reason these coaches that stick in the league (3+ seasons) who are in recent times seem to be coaches that have increasing winning percentages. This. Does not. Look good. For Ty.
Let's go deeper and just look at the last section, coaches who got their start in 2010 or later...
Head Coach | 1st season | # Season | # Games | W | L | % | |
1 | Tom Thibodeau | 2010 - 2011 | 4 | 267 | 174 | 93 | 65.2% |
2 | Frank Vogel | 2010 - 2011 | 4 | 224 | 133 | 91 | 59.4% |
3 | Larry Drew | 2010 - 2011 | 4 | 257 | 139 | 118 | 54.1% |
4 | Tyrone Corbin | 2010 - 2011 | 4 | 185 | 87 | 98 | 47.0% |
5 | Monty Williams | 2010 - 2011 | 4 | 240 | 97 | 143 | 40.4% |
Totals: | 1173 | 630 | 543 | 53.7% |
Wow. Okay. That's good company if you can keep it, but these teams the coaches are responsible for are going in vastly different directions.
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Keep up with the Joneses:
Let's remember that Ty is in the middle of his 4th season, just like a bunch of other head coaches. His record today (which honestly isn't that hurt by the 0-5 cumulative start) isn't the record that it's going to be when the season is up, and his contract is also up. The Jazz players are not going to be really judged on wins this year. Hopefully Ty is able to show us some non-win related coaching behaviors that make the front office like him. Wins may be hard to get this year . . . but if he wanted to keep up with his era of coaches in his situation . . . how many wins would the team need to get this year?
- The whole historical selection (n=133) has an average win% of 49.2%; for Ty to reach that this year the Jazz would need to win 41.904 games this year
- For the 80's and up selection (n=83), the Jazz would have to win 40.332 games
- 90's (n=59)? Reaching that win% would need for Ty to guide the team to 43.476 wins
- 2000's era coaches (n=27) are winning 51.5% of their games, and for Ty to keep up with them he'd have to have a Coach of the Year season and have the team win 47.930 games
- For Ty to reach AVERAGE (and remember, these are the averages of these groups) for the 2010 and later starting coaches (n=5) he would have to coax the Jazz to 53.694 wins this year.
For the record, there are only 77 games left this year. How many of the following 77 do you think we're going to win? That's hard to tell because of the inherent factors that have influenced our 0-5 start -- which are mainly due to issues of a) who we have to play, and b) roster makeup (injuries, etc). How much of it is the coach? We don't know.
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But is it the team that makes the coach, or the coach makes the team?
Obviously you can create a relationship between successful coaches and successful teams, when both categories share a common factor of wins. (Aka the "Duh" Syllogism) How do you evaluate a coach's influence upon a team when a stated doctrine for the season is to look beyond wins and losses? That's the tricky part this season for Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey. A coach and still lead his team to good play, or failing that, evolve during the season to adjust to changing situations.
Ty is dealt a rough hand right off the back by taking away his best point guard, Trey Burke, and starting the season with such an imbalanced roster. The offense looks really rough,and the team has to get better. If it does part of the props will have to go to the players and the coach. It can't all be Ty's fault, after all, he's not the one getting scored on.
But does the team make the coach, or vice versa? In a season beyond wins and losses it has to be a combination of both. Effectively, in a way, the very players have a very active on-court say in how successful Ty's season is this year. The youth core of Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Enes Kanter, and Alec Burks are all in much more secure situations than Ty. If they play hard for him, they can help "make him". It's a good thing Ty didn't monkey around with their minutes over the last three seasons, preventing them from getting regular playing time, eliminate possible comfort on the court, sequester them from national recognition (guess how many made the rookie/soph game), or potentially limit the value of their future contracts as a result of systematic biases and/or random DNP-CDs.
Oh wait.
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So (*looks at watch*) . . . let's wrap this up:
Ty is below average for a group of 130+ NBA/ABA head coaches who coached for at least 3 seasons. Right now he looks worse than he is when compared to people of his era. But it's not about the present that matters, but the future. You don't have to exhibit early success in your coaching career to become a well respected, tenured NBA/ABA head coach. Household names like Mike Fratello, Lenny Wilkens, Jerry Sloan, Flip Saunders, and George Karl all started their careers off on the wrong side of .500 as NBA head coaches. Are these guys examples of early coaching success not mattering, or just exceptions to the rule? After all, if you win early you develop this winning aura that makes it way easier to stick around in the league. Some times this is related to being in a good situation, part of a strong franchise, or inheriting a once in a generational talent. Other times it's just because a guy is just a damn fine coach.
No one honestly thinks that Ty Corbin is a damn fine coach right now. Can he become one? Time will surely tell, but his performance this season will definitely give us a lot of hints on which way his legacy is leaning. It would be awesome if he succeeds. But it's not likely that he will keep pace with his immediate, or historical, colleagues in terms of winning percentage at the end of this season.
It's not likely.
But if Ty wants to go out with a bang, expiring contract in hand, and win 40 of the next 77 games he'll surely find a home in the NBA next season. That would not guarantee that he becomes a Hall of Famer, but it would for sure establish him as a legit NBA head coach who did a damn fine coaching job this year.