NBA History: Is early career success necessary for Head Coaches?

I wanted to apologize to the readers, active participants, lurkers, my team, my cohorts, my fellow bloggers, and to all the national writers who read SB Nation sites like this one. I'm going to post better articles. Hopefully starting with this one. Right now the Utah Jazz are struggling, starting the NBA season at 0-5. There are some good reasons to explain away the record (playing playoff teams for the most part, and being injured); but invariably some people will point to the head coach as a primary factor. I don't know how valid it is, I have my own beliefs -- but I don't really have any quantitative evidence to support my beliefs. What I do have is two-fold: we have the idea that for this season we should look beyond wins and losses to evaluate the progress of the Utah Jazz; and secondly, we have decades of data on ABA/NBA head coaches.

At the end of the season we can figure out if our players are playing better. And at the end of the season we can figure out if head coach Tyrone Corbin is better too. (N.B. The Jazz also did not extend HIS contract, so he may be looking for a new job in 77 games) Part of what will help evaluate him would be to evaluate him against the vast history of NBA coaches who have come before him. So that's precisely what I searched for. The following is a very long (n=130+) list of coaches who have held their job for at least part of three seasons. It's not an all inclusive list because, c'mon, the data gathering for this thing started at 3:30 am today. For these coaches I calculated their Win / Loss record for their first 3-4 seasons, cumulative with their regular season and playoff careers to that point. (3-4 yrs because Ty is in his 4th season as head coach, but came into it halfway through one season, then had to coach in a lockout shortened year. I'm trying to give you the benefit of the doubt here, dawg.)

What I've found is that, well, Tyrone may or may not be right where he needs to be in W/L this year to stick around in the NBA for a few years longer. I've also broken down the win% by era of head coach start, and well, that's where some of the data is less forgiving. While I've felt like wins and losses this year are not the point -- if Ty does want to keep stride with his peers I've also calculated just how many wins Ty needs to keep, in order to keep his head above water.

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Tyrone Corbin:

Tyrone Corbin was 3rd in line to the throne back when Jerry Sloan was the head coach. For decades the coaching helm was supposed to go to Phil Johnson, Jerry's XO. But Phil decided to ride off into the sunset with his longtime friend and colleague. Ty was selected to succeed them. But has he succeeded as an actual NBA head coach? That depends on which side of the media veil you sit on (some say no, others vehemently claim the opposite). I have a feeling that Corbin was to be a sacrificial lamb, but the Jazz could not justify moving beyond Ty after he made the playoffs in that lockout year (when the Jazz moved up from 12th in the West to 8th due to teams ahead of us tanking).

I am frustrated by the mistakes Corbin makes as a head coach, but I am also frustrated by the situation he was put into. But, it's not about the present now that we've scuttled the mercenary roster that Kevin O'Connor cobbled together in the aftermath of moving Deron Williams. It's, really, about the future. So can Tyrone Corbin be the head coach of the future? Because we endeavor to be rational empiricists before we can project the future we have to build a quantitative frame of reference from historical facts.

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BEHOLD:

This is the cumulative win/loss record of NBA/ABA head coaches who coached for at least three different years in their coaching careers -- but limited to just their first three (or four if available) seasons at the helm. It's a combined regular season and playoff record, because things like the playoffs matter in the real world. (The point, by the way, is to win the title, not be happy with an 8th seed)

	Head Coach	1st season	# Season	# Games	W	L	%
1	Phil Jackson	1989 - 1990	4	402	295	107	73.4%
2	Pat Riley	1981 - 1982	4	386	273	113	70.7%
3	Avery Johnson	2004 - 2005	4	311	217	94	69.8%
4	John Kundla	1948 - 1949	4	304	209	95	68.8%
5	Billy Cunningham	1977 - 1978	4	375	253	122	67.5%
6	Paul Westphal	1992 - 1993	4	323	216	107	66.9%
7	Larry Bird	1997 - 1998	3	268	179	89	66.8%
8	Rick Adelman	1988 - 1989	4	343	228	115	66.5%
9	Tom Thibodeau	2010 - 2011	4	267	174	93	65.2%
10	Joe Mullaney	1969 - 1970	4	387	247	140	63.8%
11	Rudy Tomjanovich	1991 - 1992	4	333	212	121	63.7%
12	Mike Brown	2005 - 2006	4	388	247	141	63.7%
13	Brian Hill	1993 - 1994	4	334	209	122	63.1%
14	Erik Spoelstra	2008 - 2009	4	368	228	140	62.0%
15	Kevin Loughery	1972 - 1973	4	315	194	121	61.6%
16	Tom Heinsohn	1969 - 1970	4	352	214	138	60.8%
17	Rick Carlisle	2001 - 2002	4	384	233	151	60.7%
18	Stan Van Gundy	2003 - 2004	4	305	185	120	60.7%
19	Bill Russell	1966 - 1967	4	373	226	147	60.6%
20	Frank Vogel	2010 - 2011	4	224	133	91	59.4%
21	Jeff Van Gundy	1995 - 1996	4	285	166	119	58.2%
22	Paul Westhead	1979 - 1980	4	262	152	110	58.0%
23	Danny Ainge	1996 - 1997	4	247	143	104	57.9%
24	Scott Brooks	2008 - 2009	4	342	198	144	57.9%
25	Gregg Popovich	1996 - 1997	4	323	185	138	57.3%
26	Jerry West	1976 - 1977	3	268	153	115	57.1%
27	Fred Schaus	1960 - 1961	4	362	206	156	56.9%
28	Butch Van Breda Kolff	1967 - 1968	4	361	204	157	56.5%
29	Chris Ford	1990 - 1991	4	353	199	154	56.4%
30	Jack McMahon	1962 - 1963	4	297	167	130	56.2%
31	Doug Moe	1976 - 1977	4	334	186	148	55.7%
32	Joe Lapchick	1947 - 1948	4	270	149	121	55.2%
33	Mike D'Antoni	1989 - 1999	4	310	170	140	54.8%
34	K.C. Jones	1972 - 1973	4	365	199	166	54.5%
35	Doug Collins	1986 - 1987	4	361	196	165	54.3%
36	Larry Drew	2010 - 2011	4	257	139	118	54.1%
37	Slick Leonard	1962 - 1963	4	307	166	141	54.1%
38	Dave Cowens	1978 - 1979	4	259	140	119	54.1%
39	Lawrence Frank	2003 - 2004	4	324	175	149	54.0%
40	Cotton Fitzsimmons	1970 - 1971	4	334	180	154	53.9%
41	Babe McCarthy	1967 - 1968	4	356	191	165	53.7%
42	Jim O'Brien	2000 - 2001	4	284	152	132	53.5%
43	Dick Motta	1968 - 1969	4	344	184	160	53.5%
44	Mike Schuler	1986 - 1987	4	301	160	141	53.2%
45	Maurice Cheeks	2001 - 2002	4	311	165	146	53.1%
46	Byron Scott	2000 - 2001	4	328	174	154	53.0%
47	Gene Rhodes	1967 - 1968	4	262	138	124	52.7%
48	Ray Scott	1972 - 1973	4	291	151	140	51.9%
49	Jack Ramsay	1968 - 1969	4	345	179	166	51.9%
50	Chuck Daly	1981 - 1982	4	305	158	147	51.8%
51	Gene Shue	1966 - 1967	4	313	162	151	51.8%
52	Doc Rivers	1999 - 2000	4	343	175	168	51.0%
53	Nate McMillan	2000 - 2001	4	318	162	156	50.9%
54	Don Nelson	1976 - 1977	4	326	166	160	50.9%
55	Scott Skiles	1999 - 2000	4	272	138	134	50.7%
56	Bill Sharman	1966 - 1967	4	367	186	181	50.7%
57	Allan Bristow	1991 - 1992	4	341	171	170	50.1%
58	Mike Fratello	1980 - 1981	4	263	130	133	49.4%
59	Isiah Thomas	2000 - 2001	4	343	169	174	49.3%
60	Rick Pitino	1987 - 1988	4	309	151	158	48.9%
61	Bernie Bickerstaff	1985 - 1986	4	355	173	182	48.7%
62	Alvin Gentry	1994 - 1995	4	187	91	96	48.7%
63	Lenny Wilkens	1969 - 1970	4	328	159	169	48.5%
64	Kevin McHale	2004 - 2005	4	248	120	128	48.4%
65	Vinny Del Negro	2008 - 2009	4	335	162	173	48.4%
66	Tom Nissalke	1971 - 1972	4	252	121	131	48.0%
67	Matt Goukas	1985 - 1986	4	306	145	161	47.4%
68	Jerry Sloan	1979 - 1980	4	289	136	153	47.1%
69	Tyrone Corbin	2010 - 2011	4	185	87	98	47.0%
70	Dan Issel	1992 - 1993	4	292	137	155	46.9%
71	P.J. Carlesimo	1994 - 1995	4	340	159	181	46.8%
72	Dolph Schayes	1963 - 1964	4	343	160	183	46.6%
73	Phil Johnson	1973 - 1974	4	310	144	166	46.5%
74	Flip Saunders	1995 - 1996	4	288	133	155	46.2%
75	Mike Dunleavy	1990 - 1991	4	351	162	189	46.2%
76	Buddy Jeannette	1947 - 1948	4	228	105	123	46.1%
77	Bob Hill	1986 - 1987	4	299	136	163	45.5%
78	Terry Porter	2003 - 2004	3	220	100	120	45.5%
79	Jim Pollard	1959 - 1960	4	306	139	167	45.4%
80	Dick Versace	1988 - 1989	3	163	73	90	44.8%
81	Sam Mitchell	2004 - 2005	4	339	151	188	44.5%
82	John Lucas	1992 - 1993	4	321	142	179	44.2%
83	Charles Wolf	1960 - 1961	4	335	148	187	44.2%
84	Eric Musselman	2002 - 2003	3	246	108	138	43.9%
85	Wes Unseld	1987 - 1988	4	306	133	173	43.5%
86	Del Harris	1979 - 1980	4	359	156	203	43.5%
87	Butch Carter	1997 - 1998	3	168	73	95	43.5%
88	Dick McGuire	1959 - 1960	4	301	130	171	43.2%
89	Frank Layden	1981 - 1982	4	329	142	187	43.2%
90	Larry Staverman	1967 - 1968	3	135	58	77	43.0%
91	Jim Lynam	1983 - 1984	4	267	114	153	42.7%
92	John MacLeod	1973 - 1974	4	347	148	199	42.7%
93	Stu Jackson	1989 - 1990	3	146	62	84	42.5%
94	Bob Weiss	1986 - 1987	4	336	142	194	42.3%
95	Donnie Walsh	1978 - 1979	3	145	61	84	42.1%
96	Bones McKinney	1950 - 1951	3	165	69	96	41.8%
97	Jack McKinney	1979 - 1980	4	262	109	153	41.6%
98	Bobby Wanzer	1955 - 1956	4	236	98	138	41.5%
99	Jimmy Rodgers	1988 - 1989	4	283	117	166	41.3%
100	Red Holzman	1953 - 1954	4	211	87	124	41.2%
101	Dwane Casey	2005 - 2006	4	270	110	160	40.7%
102	Monty Williams	2010 - 2011	4	240	97	143	40.4%
103	Terry Stotts	2002 - 2003	4	288	116	172	40.3%
104	George Karl	1984 - 1985	4	309	124	185	40.1%
105	Eddie Jordan	1996 - 1997	4	269	107	162	39.8%
106	Garry St. Jean	1992 - 1993	4	332	132	200	39.8%
107	Willis Reed	1977 - 1978	4	212	84	128	39.6%
108	Andrew Levane	1952 - 1953	4	218	86	132	39.4%
109	John Calipari	1996 - 1997	3	187	72	115	38.5%
110	Lionel Hollins	1999 - 2000	4	185	71	114	38.4%
111	Jay Triano	2008 - 2009	3	229	87	141	38.2%
112	Slater Martin	1956 - 1957	3	98	37	61	37.8%
113	Don Chaney	1984 - 1985	4	271	99	172	36.5%
114	Dave Wohl	1985 - 1986	3	182	65	117	35.7%
115	Paul Silas	1980 - 1981	4	281	100	181	35.6%
116	Keith Smart	2002 - 2003	4	263	93	170	35.4%
117	Scotty Robertson	1974 - 1975	4	205	72	133	35.1%
118	Johnny Davis	1996 - 1997	4	219	73	146	33.3%
119	Randy Wittman	1999 - 2000	4	288	96	192	33.3%
120	Bob MacKinnon	1974 - 1975	4	187	62	125	33.2%
121	Darrell Walker	1996 - 1997	3	169	56	113	33.1%
122	Jerry Reynolds	1986 - 1987	4	170	56	114	32.9%
123	Mike Woodson	2004 - 2005	4	335	109	226	32.5%
124	Red Kerr	1966 - 1967	4	291	94	197	32.3%
125	George Irvine	1984 - 1985	4	211	68	143	32.2%
126	Bill Fitch	1970 - 1970	4	328	99	229	30.2%
127	Ron Rothstein	1988 - 1989	4	328	97	231	29.6%
128	Gene Littles	1985 - 1986	4	155	44	111	28.4%
129	Kurt Rambis	1998 - 1999	3	209	59	150	28.2%
130	Sidney Lowe	1992 - 1993	4	299	79	220	26.4%
131	Bill Musselman	1975 - 1976	4	131	34	97	26.0%
132	Tim Floyd	1998 - 1999	4	239	49	190	20.5%
133	Brian Williams	1995 - 1996	3	184	36	148	19.6%
	Totals			37929	18660	19265	49.2%

It's a big list. Obviously, first, some of these coaches inherited crappy situations, and some of them went to teams with great players. Some teams won a lot, and others did not. There is a relationship between being a 'winning' coach and having a super star on your team. But the teams that have won the most do seem to be led by good coaches, even legendary coaches started off from somewhere. And some of these legendary coaches started off winning from the get-go.

Ty is below average, but if you look in his neighborhood there are a few guys around him who turned out okay. But thankfully we can break it down a bit more than that.

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Eras of Coaching:

It's apples and pad thai to compare some coaches from the era directly after WWII to coaches of today. The game is vastly changed. So here we'll see the differences between the eras, and their respective winning percentages.

Coaching period	n =	G	W	L	%
All NBA/ABA	133	37,929	18,660	19,265	49.2%
Started in 1980 -->	83	23,578	11,462	12,112	48.6%
Started in 1990 -->	59	16,759	8,338	8,417	49.8%
Started in 2000 -->	27	7,952	4,091	386	51.5%
Started in 2010 -->	5	1,173	630	543	53.7%
Ty Corbin	1	185	87	98	47.0%

Oh, well, for whatever reason these coaches that stick in the league (3+ seasons) who are in recent times seem to be coaches that have increasing winning percentages. This. Does not. Look good. For Ty.

Let's go deeper and just look at the last section, coaches who got their start in 2010 or later...

	Head Coach	1st season	# Season	# Games	W	L	%
1	Tom Thibodeau	2010 - 2011	4	267	174	93	65.2%
2	Frank Vogel	2010 - 2011	4	224	133	91	59.4%
3	Larry Drew	2010 - 2011	4	257	139	118	54.1%
4	Tyrone Corbin	2010 - 2011	4	185	87	98	47.0%
5	Monty Williams	2010 - 2011	4	240	97	143	40.4%
	Totals:			1173	630	543	53.7%

Wow. Okay. That's good company if you can keep it, but these teams the coaches are responsible for are going in vastly different directions.

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Keep up with the Joneses:

Let's remember that Ty is in the middle of his 4th season, just like a bunch of other head coaches. His record today (which honestly isn't that hurt by the 0-5 cumulative start) isn't the record that it's going to be when the season is up, and his contract is also up. The Jazz players are not going to be really judged on wins this year. Hopefully Ty is able to show us some non-win related coaching behaviors that make the front office like him. Wins may be hard to get this year . . . but if he wanted to keep up with his era of coaches in his situation . . . how many wins would the team need to get this year?

• The whole historical selection (n=133) has an average win% of 49.2%; for Ty to reach that this year the Jazz would need to win 41.904 games this year
• For the 80's and up selection (n=83), the Jazz would have to win 40.332 games
• 90's (n=59)? Reaching that win% would need for Ty to guide the team to 43.476 wins
• 2000's era coaches (n=27) are winning 51.5% of their games, and for Ty to keep up with them he'd have to have a Coach of the Year season and have the team win 47.930 games
• For Ty to reach AVERAGE (and remember, these are the averages of these groups) for the 2010 and later starting coaches (n=5) he would have to coax the Jazz to 53.694 wins this year.

For the record, there are only 77 games left this year. How many of the following 77 do you think we're going to win? That's hard to tell because of the inherent factors that have influenced our 0-5 start -- which are mainly due to issues of a) who we have to play, and b) roster makeup (injuries, etc). How much of it is the coach? We don't know.

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But is it the team that makes the coach, or the coach makes the team?

Obviously you can create a relationship between successful coaches and successful teams, when both categories share a common factor of wins. (Aka the "Duh" Syllogism) How do you evaluate a coach's influence upon a team when a stated doctrine for the season is to look beyond wins and losses? That's the tricky part this season for Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey. A coach and still lead his team to good play, or failing that, evolve during the season to adjust to changing situations.

Ty is dealt a rough hand right off the back by taking away his best point guard, Trey Burke, and starting the season with such an imbalanced roster. The offense looks really rough,and the team has to get better. If it does part of the props will have to go to the players and the coach. It can't all be Ty's fault, after all, he's not the one getting scored on.

But does the team make the coach, or vice versa? In a season beyond wins and losses it has to be a combination of both. Effectively, in a way, the very players have a very active on-court say in how successful Ty's season is this year. The youth core of Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Enes Kanter, and Alec Burks are all in much more secure situations than Ty. If they play hard for him, they can help "make him". It's a good thing Ty didn't monkey around with their minutes over the last three seasons, preventing them from getting regular playing time, eliminate possible comfort on the court, sequester them from national recognition (guess how many made the rookie/soph game), or potentially limit the value of their future contracts as a result of systematic biases and/or random DNP-CDs.

Oh wait.

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So (*looks at watch*) . . . let's wrap this up:

Ty is below average for a group of 130+ NBA/ABA head coaches who coached for at least 3 seasons. Right now he looks worse than he is when compared to people of his era. But it's not about the present that matters, but the future. You don't have to exhibit early success in your coaching career to become a well respected, tenured NBA/ABA head coach. Household names like Mike Fratello, Lenny Wilkens, Jerry Sloan, Flip Saunders, and George Karl all started their careers off on the wrong side of .500 as NBA head coaches. Are these guys examples of early coaching success not mattering, or just exceptions to the rule? After all, if you win early you develop this winning aura that makes it way easier to stick around in the league. Some times this is related to being in a good situation, part of a strong franchise, or inheriting a once in a generational talent. Other times it's just because a guy is just a damn fine coach.

No one honestly thinks that Ty Corbin is a damn fine coach right now. Can he become one? Time will surely tell, but his performance this season will definitely give us a lot of hints on which way his legacy is leaning. It would be awesome if he succeeds. But it's not likely that he will keep pace with his immediate, or historical, colleagues in terms of winning percentage at the end of this season.

It's not likely.

But if Ty wants to go out with a bang, expiring contract in hand, and win 40 of the next 77 games he'll surely find a home in the NBA next season. That would not guarantee that he becomes a Hall of Famer, but it would for sure establish him as a legit NBA head coach who did a damn fine coaching job this year.