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The NBA draft is always a crapshoot. Sometimes you think you've drafted a stud, only to find out later that he is a dud. So, the draft is a less sure thing than trading for a star, or signing one in free agency. Of course, not all teams are capable of making trades or signing free agents.So, that leaves us with the draft. And the draft is a big deal. It's hard to get a good pick. And then a pick alone does not mean automatic success. You still have to draft a good player, not have them pull a Steve Francis and pout his way off your team, then play them. In fact, if you draft a good player and keep them in their original packaging -- they will actually depreciate. The NBA game, particularly for high picks, is a ruthless one.
If you are good, you better show that you are good quickly. The slow and steady race isn't one that is the winning strategy for high draft picks. Let's take a look at the #3 draft pick. You've had a number of useful players picked at this spot over the last 40 seasons. Most of these guys produced, some became stars, but almost all of them were good returns on the high draft pick initial investment. What was common out of this group? Well, one of the commonalities was that the teams that they signed with ended up playing these guys a lot -- and a lot right out of the box. I guess this is the quickest way to get a return on that investment; while finding out if this player was worth it, or not.
For example, over the last 40 years, the #3 draft pick has played 28.6 mpg as a rookie, and finished his first 5 seasons with a cumulative career average of 31.2 mpg. If you can believe it, both of those numbers increase when you reduce the same size from 1973-2012 (40 years) to just 1993-2013 (the last 20 years). By the numbers, these high draft picks are being used more and more.
Of course, it's not uniform for all picks. Chris Washburn ('86) only played in 68 total regular season and playoff games, at the rate of 8.5 mpg. Kevin McHale ('80) played in 99 regular season and playoff games, at the rate of 19.6 mpg in his rookie season alone. If you are good, you should have an opportunity to show it on the floor. If you are bad, you will not. What does this say about Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter who have played the least minutes in their early careers as #3 picks of all the #3 picks of the last 20 years save for Raef LaFrentz?
Are they good, bad, or just behind the curve?
Here is how they stack up against their peers over their first five years in the league. The breakdowns are:
- All the #3 picks in the last 40 years (n=40)
- All the #3 picks in the last 20 years (n=20)
- All the #3 picks in the last 10 years (n=10)
- All the #3 picks in the last 5 years (n=5)
N.B., the data for the last 10, and 5 groups are lower than they should be because not every player has played 5 seasons yet -- including Favors and Kanter.
For the most part we see that the #3 pick plays about 2,000 minutes every season on average. This is true for all sections/groupings except for Favors and Kanter. They are about 800+ mins (cumulative average) behind after their rookie years. (Part of this was the lockout year) However, they seem to fall behind early in these vital First 3 years in the league. We hope that the issue here was that their minutes were cannibalized by Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, and not that DF and EK are bad players.
Right?
If you are drafting at #3 this year, you should be getting a player capable of playing over 10k minutes in his first five seasons. God help you if your head coach has other plans though. Of course, this just may be evidence of the Jazz not doing things wrong compared to the last 40 years of NBA history -- it's just that everyone else was wrong before, even the same Jazz front office that played D-Will 37.2 mpg (cumulative reg + playoffs) in his 2nd year in the league.
.
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All of the damn data (if you asked for it):
Season 1 | Season 2 | Season 3 | Season 4 | Season 5 | Cumulative Mins per Career | Cumulative | |||||||||||||||||
Player | Draft | G | Min | MPG | G | Min | MPG | G | Min | MPG | G | Min | MPG | G | Min | MPG | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 Yr MPG | |
1 | Ernie DiGregorio | 1973 | 87 | 3,150 | 36.2 | 31 | 712 | 23.0 | 76 | 1,581 | 20.8 | 81 | 2,267 | 28.0 | 52 | 606 | 11.7 | 3,150 | 3,862 | 5,443 | 7,710 | 8,316 | 25.4 |
2 | Tom Burleson | 1974 | 91 | 2,252 | 24.7 | 88 | 2,855 | 32.4 | 82 | 1,803 | 22.0 | 76 | 1,525 | 20.1 | 56 | 927 | 16.6 | 2,252 | 5,107 | 6,910 | 8,435 | 9,362 | 23.8 |
3 | Marvin Webster | 1975 | 51 | 553 | 10.8 | 86 | 1,372 | 16.0 | 104 | 3,814 | 36.7 | 60 | 2,027 | 33.8 | 20 | 298 | 14.9 | 553 | 1,925 | 5,739 | 7,766 | 8,064 | 25.1 |
4 | Richard Washington | 1976 | 82 | 2,265 | 27.6 | 78 | 2,231 | 28.6 | 22 | 213 | 9.7 | 82 | 1,204 | 14.7 | 80 | 1,812 | 22.7 | 2,265 | 4,496 | 4,709 | 5,913 | 7,725 | 22.5 |
5 | Marques Johnson | 1977 | 89 | 3,086 | 34.7 | 77 | 2,779 | 36.1 | 84 | 2,989 | 35.6 | 83 | 2,808 | 33.8 | 66 | 2,135 | 32.3 | 3,086 | 5,865 | 8,854 | 11,662 | 13,797 | 34.6 |
6 | Rick Robey | 1978 | 79 | 1,763 | 22.3 | 91 | 2,069 | 22.7 | 99 | 1,834 | 18.5 | 92 | 1,308 | 14.2 | 64 | 884 | 13.8 | 1,763 | 3,832 | 5,666 | 6,974 | 7,858 | 18.5 |
7 | Bill Cartwright | 1979 | 82 | 3,150 | 38.4 | 84 | 2,974 | 35.4 | 72 | 2,060 | 28.6 | 88 | 2,640 | 30.0 | 89 | 2,885 | 32.4 | 3,150 | 6,124 | 8,184 | 10,824 | 13,709 | 33.0 |
8 | Kevin McHale | 1980 | 99 | 1,941 | 19.6 | 94 | 2,676 | 28.5 | 89 | 2,522 | 28.3 | 105 | 3,279 | 31.2 | 100 | 3,490 | 34.9 | 1,941 | 4,617 | 7,139 | 10,418 | 13,908 | 28.6 |
9 | Buck Williams | 1981 | 84 | 2,904 | 34.6 | 84 | 3,046 | 36.3 | 92 | 3,476 | 37.8 | 85 | 3,305 | 38.9 | 85 | 3,196 | 37.6 | 2,904 | 5,950 | 9,426 | 12,731 | 15,927 | 37.0 |
10 | Dominique Wilkins | 1982 | 85 | 2,806 | 33.0 | 86 | 3,158 | 36.7 | 90 | 3,383 | 37.6 | 87 | 3,409 | 39.2 | 91 | 3,442 | 37.8 | 2,806 | 5,964 | 9,347 | 12,756 | 16,198 | 36.9 |
11 | Rodney McCray | 1983 | 79 | 2,081 | 26.3 | 87 | 3,182 | 36.6 | 102 | 3,445 | 33.8 | 85 | 3,295 | 38.8 | 81 | 2,689 | 33.2 | 2,081 | 5,263 | 8,708 | 12,003 | 14,692 | 33.9 |
12 | Michael Jordan | 1984 | 86 | 3,315 | 38.5 | 21 | 586 | 27.9 | 85 | 3,409 | 40.1 | 92 | 3,738 | 40.6 | 98 | 3,973 | 40.5 | 3,315 | 3,901 | 7,310 | 11,048 | 15,021 | 39.3 |
13 | Benoit Benjamin | 1985 | 79 | 2,088 | 26.4 | 72 | 2,230 | 31.0 | 66 | 2,171 | 32.9 | 79 | 2,585 | 32.7 | 71 | 2,313 | 32.6 | 2,088 | 4,318 | 6,489 | 9,074 | 11,387 | 31.0 |
14 | Chris Washburn | 1986 | 40 | 314 | 7.9 | 28 | 262 | 9.4 | 314 | 576 | 576 | 576 | 576 | 8.5 | |||||||||
15 | Dennis Hopson | 1987 | 61 | 1,365 | 22.4 | 62 | 1,551 | 25.0 | 79 | 2,551 | 32.3 | 66 | 746 | 11.3 | 71 | 1,314 | 18.5 | 1,365 | 2,916 | 5,467 | 6,213 | 7,527 | 22.2 |
16 | Charles Smith | 1988 | 71 | 2,161 | 30.4 | 78 | 2,732 | 35.0 | 74 | 2,703 | 36.5 | 54 | 1,458 | 27.0 | 96 | 2,560 | 26.7 | 2,161 | 4,893 | 7,596 | 9,054 | 11,614 | 31.1 |
17 | Sean Elliott | 1989 | 91 | 2,323 | 25.5 | 86 | 3,176 | 36.9 | 85 | 3,257 | 38.3 | 80 | 2,985 | 37.3 | 88 | 2,983 | 33.9 | 2,323 | 5,499 | 8,756 | 11,741 | 14,724 | 34.2 |
18 | Mahmoud Abdurl-Rauf | 1990 | 67 | 1,505 | 22.5 | 81 | 1,538 | 19.0 | 81 | 2,710 | 33.5 | 92 | 2,956 | 32.1 | 76 | 2,158 | 28.4 | 1,505 | 3,043 | 5,753 | 8,709 | 10,867 | 27.4 |
19 | Billy Owens | 1991 | 84 | 2,667 | 31.8 | 37 | 1,201 | 32.5 | 82 | 2,865 | 34.9 | 70 | 2,296 | 32.8 | 66 | 2,113 | 32.0 | 2,667 | 3,868 | 6,733 | 9,029 | 11,142 | 32.9 |
20 | Christian Laettner | 1992 | 81 | 2,823 | 34.9 | 70 | 2,428 | 34.7 | 81 | 2,770 | 34.2 | 84 | 2,829 | 33.7 | 92 | 3,543 | 38.5 | 2,823 | 5,251 | 8,021 | 10,850 | 14,393 | 35.3 |
21 | Anfernee Hardaway | 1993 | 85 | 3,148 | 37.0 | 98 | 3,750 | 38.3 | 94 | 3,488 | 37.1 | 64 | 2,441 | 38.1 | 19 | 625 | 32.9 | 3,148 | 6,898 | 10,386 | 12,827 | 13,452 | 37.4 |
22 | Grant Hill | 1994 | 70 | 2,678 | 38.3 | 83 | 3,375 | 40.7 | 85 | 3,350 | 39.4 | 81 | 3,294 | 40.7 | 55 | 2,028 | 36.9 | 2,678 | 6,053 | 9,403 | 12,697 | 14,725 | 39.4 |
23 | Jerry Stackhouse | 1995 | 72 | 2,701 | 37.5 | 81 | 3,166 | 39.1 | 79 | 2,545 | 32.2 | 47 | 1,312 | 27.9 | 85 | 3,268 | 38.4 | 2,701 | 5,867 | 8,412 | 9,724 | 12,992 | 35.7 |
24 | Shareef Abdur-Rahim | 1996 | 80 | 2,802 | 35.0 | 82 | 2,950 | 36.0 | 50 | 2,021 | 40.4 | 82 | 3,223 | 39.3 | 81 | 3,241 | 40.0 | 2,802 | 5,752 | 7,773 | 10,996 | 14,237 | 38.0 |
25 | Chauncey Billups | 1997 | 80 | 2,216 | 27.7 | 45 | 1,488 | 33.1 | 13 | 305 | 23.5 | 80 | 1,816 | 22.7 | 85 | 2,489 | 29.3 | 2,216 | 3,704 | 4,009 | 5,825 | 8,314 | 27.4 |
26 | Raef LaFrentz | 1998 | 12 | 387 | 32.3 | 81 | 2,435 | 30.1 | 78 | 2,457 | 31.5 | 86 | 2,700 | 31.4 | 89 | 2,102 | 23.6 | 387 | 2,822 | 5,279 | 7,979 | 10,081 | 29.1 |
27 | Baron Davis | 1999 | 86 | 1,580 | 18.4 | 92 | 3,589 | 39.0 | 91 | 3,719 | 40.9 | 55 | 2,083 | 37.9 | 74 | 2,946 | 39.8 | 1,580 | 5,169 | 8,888 | 10,971 | 13,917 | 35.0 |
28 | Darius Miles | 2000 | 81 | 2,133 | 26.3 | 82 | 2,227 | 27.2 | 67 | 2,008 | 30.0 | 79 | 2,079 | 26.3 | 63 | 1,699 | 27.0 | 2,133 | 4,360 | 6,368 | 8,447 | 10,146 | 27.3 |
29 | Pau Gasol | 2001 | 82 | 3,007 | 36.7 | 82 | 2,948 | 36.0 | 82 | 2,592 | 31.6 | 60 | 1,923 | 32.1 | 84 | 3,293 | 39.2 | 3,007 | 5,955 | 8,547 | 10,470 | 13,763 | 35.3 |
30 | Mike Dunleavy | 2002 | 82 | 1,305 | 15.9 | 75 | 2,336 | 31.1 | 79 | 2,570 | 32.5 | 81 | 2,578 | 31.8 | 82 | 2,580 | 31.5 | 1,305 | 3,641 | 6,211 | 8,789 | 11,369 | 28.5 |
31 | Carmelo Anthony | 2003 | 86 | 3,138 | 36.5 | 80 | 2,788 | 34.9 | 85 | 3,134 | 36.9 | 70 | 2,696 | 38.5 | 81 | 2,952 | 36.4 | 3,138 | 5,926 | 9,060 | 11,756 | 14,708 | 36.6 |
32 | Ben Gordon | 2004 | 88 | 2,155 | 24.5 | 86 | 2,727 | 31.7 | 92 | 3,099 | 33.7 | 72 | 2,291 | 31.8 | 89 | 3,303 | 37.1 | 2,155 | 4,882 | 7,981 | 10,272 | 13,575 | 31.8 |
33 | Deron Williams | 2005 | 80 | 2,307 | 28.8 | 97 | 3,607 | 37.2 | 94 | 3,572 | 38.0 | 73 | 2,716 | 37.2 | 86 | 3,200 | 37.2 | 2,307 | 5,914 | 9,486 | 12,202 | 15,402 | 35.8 |
34 | Adam Morrison | 2006 | 78 | 2,326 | 29.8 | 52 | 711 | 13.7 | 33 | 254 | 7.7 | 2,326 | 3,037 | 3,291 | 3,291 | 3,291 | 20.2 | ||||||
35 | Al Horford | 2007 | 88 | 2,817 | 32.0 | 76 | 2,494 | 32.8 | 92 | 3,233 | 35.1 | 89 | 3,172 | 35.6 | 14 | 456 | 32.6 | 2,817 | 5,311 | 8,544 | 11,716 | 12,172 | 33.9 |
36 | O.J. Mayo | 2008 | 82 | 3,120 | 38.0 | 82 | 3,113 | 38.0 | 84 | 2,231 | 26.6 | 73 | 1,934 | 26.5 | 82 | 2,913 | 35.5 | 3,120 | 6,233 | 8,464 | 10,398 | 13,311 | 33.0 |
37 | James Harden | 2009 | 82 | 1,858 | 22.7 | 99 | 2,726 | 27.5 | 82 | 2,576 | 31.4 | 78 | 2,985 | 38.3 | 1,858 | 4,584 | 7,160 | 10,145 | 10,145 | 29.8 | |||
38 | Derrick Favors | 2010 | 78 | 1,535 | 19.7 | 81 | 1,903 | 23.5 | 65 | 1,376 | 21.2 | 1,535 | 3,438 | 4,814 | 4,814 | 4,814 | 21.5 | ||||||
39 | Enes Kanter | 2011 | 70 | 917 | 13.1 | 70 | 1,078 | 15.4 | 917 | 1,995 | 1,995 | 1,995 | 1,995 | 14.3 | |||||||||
40 | Bradley Beal | 2012 | 56 | 1,745 | 31.2 | 1,745 | 1,745 | 1,745 | 1,745 | 1,745 | 31.2 | ||||||||||||
All 40 Years | 3,086 | 88,387 | 28.6 | 2,945 | 92,169 | 31.3 | 2,890 | 94,086 | 32.6 | 2,711 | 85,903 | 31.7 | 2,511 | 80,416 | 32.0 | 2,210 | 4,514 | 6,866 | 9,014 | 11,024 | 31.2 | ||
Last 20 Years | 1,518 | 43,875 | 28.9 | 1,524 | 49,411 | 32.4 | 1,345 | 44,530 | 33.1 | 1,170 | 39,243 | 33.5 | 1,069 | 37,095 | 34.7 | 2,194 | 4,664 | 6,891 | 8,853 | 10,708 | 32.3 | ||
Last 10 Years | 788 | 21,918 | 27.8 | 723 | 21,147 | 29.2 | 627 | 19,475 | 31.1 | 455 | 15,794 | 34.7 | 352 | 12,824 | 36.4 | 2,192 | 4,307 | 6,254 | 7,833 | 9,116 | 31.0 | ||
Last 5 Years | 368 | 9,175 | 24.9 | 332 | 8,820 | 26.6 | 231 | 6,183 | 26.8 | 151 | 4,919 | 32.6 | 82 | 2,913 | 35.5 | 1,835 | 3,599 | 4,836 | 5,819 | 6,402 | 27.5 | ||
Favors + Kanter | 148 | 2,452 | 16.6 | 151 | 2,981 | 19.7 | 65 | 1,376 | 21.2 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 0 | 0 | N/A | 1,226 | 2,717 | 3,405 | 3,405 | 3,405 | 18.7 |
Blerg . . . no many numbers. Bottom line? Playing time = development, if the player is good enough. I think our dudes are.