NBA Player Development: Minutes as an antecedent towards success, or a characteristic or quality of successful players?

The NBA is a league that is a league of haves and have nots. No one is going to do you a favor. If you want to be a good franchise, you have to put the work in towards getting better. If you want to be a good player, you have to do the work yourself. Of course, success for a team and player both is most obviously seen on the court. No one has ever hit a game winner while sitting on the bench. Minutes matter. You need to be on the floor to help your team. And you need to be on the floor to get the experience needed to be able to help your team when your number is called. No matter what side of the iron curtain you are on, minutes do matter.

If you don't think they do, you are either being diplomatic, dishonest, or are dumb. (Pick one, which is it?)

Experience does matter. You can kill it in practice, but if you never play in the games, a lot of that experience may not translate over. On the other hand, if you regularly are put into real games then what you do in them will build your confidence level within them. Speaking in front of a mirror at home can help, but the more public speaking you do at school/work is what will give you the needed experience and confidence to perform at your best. Hit a post jump hook in an empty gym? Good. Taking five attempts in a game, every game? Better. Practice is nice. Experience means more.

So, are minutes an antecedent towards success in the future, or just a characteristic or quality of a successful player? Do minutes make the player, or do the best players earn the most minutes? You could argue for that either way. The answer is that it's probably both. It's funny, because David Locke's most recent post makes it clear that it's important to look at what our team is doing now -- but only after we automatically eliminate HOFers. Smart move, Lockey. This is the same employee who chided one of my pieces for not including data on Millsap when making a point about playing time distribution (Sap wasn't the argument, but it's always clever to divert the attention). Let's not divert the attention or make the smallest of cuts in order to serve our paid messages.

The bottom line is that we have four young lottery picks on their rookie contracts. Ignoring the possibility that our scouting department grossly over-estimated the quality of these players, we should assume a positive return on the investment (meager) that we're making with them. Today's NBA is not one that assumes absolute loyalty where a Karl Malone type will keep signing to play with the team that drafted him, implicitly. You aren't guaranteed that a young hot shot is going to want to stay with the team that drafted him. (Ask Toronto or Cleveland fans) The time frame to get a return on a lotto pick is thus shortened.

You're only screwing yourself (in the butt) if you can only get a star through the draft, and then go out of your way to make those guys a) either want to leave, or b) never make them stars. (And really, the Utah Jazz aren't going to sign a star in free agency or trade for one. Ever. And the Utah Jazz are never going to be real contenders without a star . . . do the math, that leaves an OVER-reliance on the draft, and thus inflates the importance of scouting well *and* developing well) The clock is ticking on all of our lottery pick rookie contracts . . . we DO need them to be good sooner *and* later. Delaying their progress is a foolish idea. And I'm not going to go into my whole Watson/Piaget/Vygotsky rant here, so you are spared.

But beyond all of that preamble . . . it doesn't matter if you THINK it's the minutes that make the player, or if you think it's the player that gets the minutes. Let's just focus in on the most elemental parts of this Jazz situation:

1. You can't be a winner in this league without a star
2. The Jazz can't get a start in Free Agency or Trades -- only in the draft
3. We have four lotto picks right now, will be adding a fifth this season
4. Lotto picks are stars more usually than 2nd rounders
5. Lotto picks have undervalued contracts and expire
6. Our best lotto picks are going into their 4th years next year
7. And aside from Hayward -- all of our lotto picks are behind the curve

None of these 7 points can be honestly refuted by anyone who uses a sufficient and valid sample size.

Compared to All-Stars, our guys are behind the minutes curve. Compared to All-NBA guys, our guys are behind the minutes curve. Even against their own draft classes, this has also been demonstrated. I want our guys to succeed, I do not think they have been given the chance. Now, let's break it all down and look at the last 40 freaking years of the NBA, and do this apples to apples. Let's do this from exact NBA Draft position against exact NBA Draft position. Regardless if you think minutes help you develop (or not), our guys categorically are getting less minutes than the averages.

• Is this because our team is too good now and we can't play young guys? Fat chance, we didn't make the playoffs this year, didn't make the playoffs two years ago, and made the playoffs last year by 1 game.
  
• Is this because our vets are too good? Also Fat chance. We gave $15 million to a guy who scores 17 points per game. That's more than $1 million per point.
• Is this because we drafted (or traded for) bad guys and our scouting department sucks? Obviously not, our front office is the best in the league. Listen to the radio or TV stations that are owned by the same people who own the team: clearly we are the best, bro.
• Coaching? Shut your damn mouth, Amar. Tyrone Corbin did the best possible job in the entire NBA with this roster. Hall of Fame Coaches couldn't have done better with it . . . despite . . . you know . . . evidence that a HOF Coach can do more with less and end up with the same result.

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How do Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter stack up against the last 40 years of the #3 Draft spot:

Okay, a player plays games in the NBA. These games are in the regular season and the playoffs. And these players are young, and need to get better asap. You DO get better with more confidence. The majority of confidence comes from experience and success in attempts at building new skills. And the #3 spot isn't supposed to be a role player. Not with this cap. You can't afford to be paying a 23 year old guy $4 million to be a role player. Your #3 spot is supposed to be a money maker. Someone you can put out on the floor, and have them contribute early and often in their careers -- regardless of college experience. You're drafted that high for a reason. And if you are drafting that high on the hope and prayer that they need to be brought along slowly, and don't understand that rookie contracts expire, then you don't deserve to be pulling the trigger on who you draft.

Here's the data for this draft spot -- scroll around to see the names, and their cumulative minutes. (N.B. This was tabulated in the first few days of the playoffs -- so a guy like Harden has even more minutes now, for example.)

			Season 1			Season 2			Season 3			Season 4			Season 5			Cumulative Mins per Career					Cumulative
	Player	Draft	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	1	2	3	4	5	5 Yr MPG
1	Ernie DiGregorio	1973	87	3,150	36.2	31	712	23.0	76	1,581	20.8	81	2,267	28.0	52	606	11.7	3,150	3,862	5,443	7,710	8,316	25.4
2	Tom Burleson	1974	91	2,252	24.7	88	2,855	32.4	82	1,803	22.0	76	1,525	20.1	56	927	16.6	2,252	5,107	6,910	8,435	9,362	23.8
3	Marvin Webster	1975	51	553	10.8	86	1,372	16.0	104	3,814	36.7	60	2,027	33.8	20	298	14.9	553	1,925	5,739	7,766	8,064	25.1
4	Richard Washington	1976	82	2,265	27.6	78	2,231	28.6	22	213	9.7	82	1,204	14.7	80	1,812	22.7	2,265	4,496	4,709	5,913	7,725	22.5
5	Marques Johnson	1977	89	3,086	34.7	77	2,779	36.1	84	2,989	35.6	83	2,808	33.8	66	2,135	32.3	3,086	5,865	8,854	11,662	13,797	34.6
6	Rick Robey	1978	79	1,763	22.3	91	2,069	22.7	99	1,834	18.5	92	1,308	14.2	64	884	13.8	1,763	3,832	5,666	6,974	7,858	18.5
7	Bill Cartwright	1979	82	3,150	38.4	84	2,974	35.4	72	2,060	28.6	88	2,640	30.0	89	2,885	32.4	3,150	6,124	8,184	10,824	13,709	33.0
8	Kevin McHale	1980	99	1,941	19.6	94	2,676	28.5	89	2,522	28.3	105	3,279	31.2	100	3,490	34.9	1,941	4,617	7,139	10,418	13,908	28.6
9	Buck Williams	1981	84	2,904	34.6	84	3,046	36.3	92	3,476	37.8	85	3,305	38.9	85	3,196	37.6	2,904	5,950	9,426	12,731	15,927	37.0
10	Dominique Wilkins	1982	85	2,806	33.0	86	3,158	36.7	90	3,383	37.6	87	3,409	39.2	91	3,442	37.8	2,806	5,964	9,347	12,756	16,198	36.9
11	Rodney McCray	1983	79	2,081	26.3	87	3,182	36.6	102	3,445	33.8	85	3,295	38.8	81	2,689	33.2	2,081	5,263	8,708	12,003	14,692	33.9
12	Michael Jordan	1984	86	3,315	38.5	21	586	27.9	85	3,409	40.1	92	3,738	40.6	98	3,973	40.5	3,315	3,901	7,310	11,048	15,021	39.3
13	Benoit Benjamin	1985	79	2,088	26.4	72	2,230	31.0	66	2,171	32.9	79	2,585	32.7	71	2,313	32.6	2,088	4,318	6,489	9,074	11,387	31.0
14	Chris Washburn	1986	40	314	7.9	28	262	9.4										314	576	576	576	576	8.5
15	Dennis Hopson	1987	61	1,365	22.4	62	1,551	25.0	79	2,551	32.3	66	746	11.3	71	1,314	18.5	1,365	2,916	5,467	6,213	7,527	22.2
16	Charles Smith	1988	71	2,161	30.4	78	2,732	35.0	74	2,703	36.5	54	1,458	27.0	96	2,560	26.7	2,161	4,893	7,596	9,054	11,614	31.1
17	Sean Elliott	1989	91	2,323	25.5	86	3,176	36.9	85	3,257	38.3	80	2,985	37.3	88	2,983	33.9	2,323	5,499	8,756	11,741	14,724	34.2
18	Mahmoud Abdurl-Rauf	1990	67	1,505	22.5	81	1,538	19.0	81	2,710	33.5	92	2,956	32.1	76	2,158	28.4	1,505	3,043	5,753	8,709	10,867	27.4
19	Billy Owens	1991	84	2,667	31.8	37	1,201	32.5	82	2,865	34.9	70	2,296	32.8	66	2,113	32.0	2,667	3,868	6,733	9,029	11,142	32.9
20	Christian Laettner	1992	81	2,823	34.9	70	2,428	34.7	81	2,770	34.2	84	2,829	33.7	92	3,543	38.5	2,823	5,251	8,021	10,850	14,393	35.3
21	Anfernee Hardaway	1993	85	3,148	37.0	98	3,750	38.3	94	3,488	37.1	64	2,441	38.1	19	625	32.9	3,148	6,898	10,386	12,827	13,452	37.4
22	Grant Hill	1994	70	2,678	38.3	83	3,375	40.7	85	3,350	39.4	81	3,294	40.7	55	2,028	36.9	2,678	6,053	9,403	12,697	14,725	39.4
23	Jerry Stackhouse	1995	72	2,701	37.5	81	3,166	39.1	79	2,545	32.2	47	1,312	27.9	85	3,268	38.4	2,701	5,867	8,412	9,724	12,992	35.7
24	Shareef Abdur-Rahim	1996	80	2,802	35.0	82	2,950	36.0	50	2,021	40.4	82	3,223	39.3	81	3,241	40.0	2,802	5,752	7,773	10,996	14,237	38.0
25	Chauncey Billups	1997	80	2,216	27.7	45	1,488	33.1	13	305	23.5	80	1,816	22.7	85	2,489	29.3	2,216	3,704	4,009	5,825	8,314	27.4
26	Raef LaFrentz	1998	12	387	32.3	81	2,435	30.1	78	2,457	31.5	86	2,700	31.4	89	2,102	23.6	387	2,822	5,279	7,979	10,081	29.1
27	Baron Davis	1999	86	1,580	18.4	92	3,589	39.0	91	3,719	40.9	55	2,083	37.9	74	2,946	39.8	1,580	5,169	8,888	10,971	13,917	35.0
28	Darius Miles	2000	81	2,133	26.3	82	2,227	27.2	67	2,008	30.0	79	2,079	26.3	63	1,699	27.0	2,133	4,360	6,368	8,447	10,146	27.3
29	Pau Gasol	2001	82	3,007	36.7	82	2,948	36.0	82	2,592	31.6	60	1,923	32.1	84	3,293	39.2	3,007	5,955	8,547	10,470	13,763	35.3
30	Mike Dunleavy	2002	82	1,305	15.9	75	2,336	31.1	79	2,570	32.5	81	2,578	31.8	82	2,580	31.5	1,305	3,641	6,211	8,789	11,369	28.5
31	Carmelo Anthony	2003	86	3,138	36.5	80	2,788	34.9	85	3,134	36.9	70	2,696	38.5	81	2,952	36.4	3,138	5,926	9,060	11,756	14,708	36.6
32	Ben Gordon	2004	88	2,155	24.5	86	2,727	31.7	92	3,099	33.7	72	2,291	31.8	89	3,303	37.1	2,155	4,882	7,981	10,272	13,575	31.8
33	Deron Williams	2005	80	2,307	28.8	97	3,607	37.2	94	3,572	38.0	73	2,716	37.2	86	3,200	37.2	2,307	5,914	9,486	12,202	15,402	35.8
34	Adam Morrison	2006	78	2,326	29.8	52	711	13.7	33	254	7.7							2,326	3,037	3,291	3,291	3,291	20.2
35	Al Horford	2007	88	2,817	32.0	76	2,494	32.8	92	3,233	35.1	89	3,172	35.6	14	456	32.6	2,817	5,311	8,544	11,716	12,172	33.9
36	O.J. Mayo	2008	82	3,120	38.0	82	3,113	38.0	84	2,231	26.6	73	1,934	26.5	82	2,913	35.5	3,120	6,233	8,464	10,398	13,311	33.0
37	James Harden	2009	82	1,858	22.7	99	2,726	27.5	82	2,576	31.4	78	2,985	38.3				1,858	4,584	7,160	10,145	10,145	29.8
38	Derrick Favors	2010	78	1,535	19.7	81	1,903	23.5	65	1,376	21.2							1,535	3,438	4,814	4,814	4,814	21.5
39	Enes Kanter	2011	70	917	13.1	70	1,078	15.4										917	1,995	1,995	1,995	1,995	14.3
40	Bradley Beal	2012	56	1,745	31.2													1,745	1,745	1,745	1,745	1,745	31.2
			G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	1	2	3	4	5	5 Yr MPG
	All 40 Years		3,086	88,387	28.6	2,945	92,169	31.3	2,890	94,086	32.6	2,711	85,903	31.7	2,511	80,416	32.0	2,210	4,514	6,866	9,014	11,024	31.2
	Last 20 Years		1,518	43,875	28.9	1,524	49,411	32.4	1,345	44,530	33.1	1,170	39,243	33.5	1,069	37,095	34.7	2,194	4,664	6,891	8,853	10,708	32.3
	Last 10 Years		788	21,918	27.8	723	21,147	29.2	627	19,475	31.1	455	15,794	34.7	352	12,824	36.4	2,192	4,307	6,254	7,833	9,116	31.0
	Last 5 Years		368	9,175	24.9	332	8,820	26.6	231	6,183	26.8	151	4,919	32.6	82	2,913	35.5	1,835	3,599	4,836	5,819	6,402	27.5
	Favors + Kanter		148	2,452	16.6	151	2,981	19.7	65	1,376	21.2	0	0	N/A	0	0	N/A	1,226	2,717	3,405	3,405	3,405	18.7

I know it would have been easier to just link to a table someone else made, but no one else did this. This is original research. It's a lot of numbers. And it's a large sample size. More than some other blogs give you. That's fine. Let's look at the critical data (cumulative career MPG at each year) in bar graph form.

Yeah, not exactly ahead of the curve there. Not exactly even keeping with the pack either. But if you hand pick the players to check Favors against in a careful way you can make it look nicer. The numbers for Derrick's 4th and 5th season remain to be seen. Kanter is in the same boat but also needs to play his 3rd season still. Even if Kanter plays 2k mins next year, the cumulative average for our boys will still be behind by 2k minutes. But of course, if you don't believe minutes mean anything, then we are still good. I don't know what the milk-dips to cookie dunk ratio for 6.8k career minutes are (as an average) for a third year #3 draft pick . . .I hope some day David Locke reveals the formula for that. (Was D-Will over dipped, or did playing 3.5+k mins in years 2 and 3 help him become an Olympian?)

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How does Gordon Hayward stack up against the last 40 years of the #9 Draft spot:

The #9 spot is far from the money maker that a #3 is. But it is funny in it's own way, because Gordon is the only guy who has gotten consistent minutes in his career, akin to that of a player on a positive development trajectory.

			Season 1			Season 2			Season 3			Season 4			Season 5			Cumulative Mins per Career					Cumulative
	Player	Draft	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	1	2	3	4	5	5 Yr MPG
1	Dwight Jones	1973	74	1,448	19.6	75	2,086	27.8	66	1,762	26.7	86	1,485	17.3	82	2,476	30.2	1,448	3,534	5,296	6,781	9,257	24.2
2	Tom McMillen	1974	51	709	13.9	76	1,492	19.6	22	345	15.7	65	1,385	21.3	68	1,683	24.8	709	2,201	2,546	3,931	5,614	19.9
3	Gene Short	1975	34	222	6.5	7	37	5.3	27	185	6.9							222	259	444	444	444	6.5
4	Armond Hill	1976	81	1,825	22.5	84	2,591	30.8	91	2,794	30.7	84	2,201	26.2	75	1,738	23.2	1,825	4,416	7,210	9,411	11,149	26.9
5	Tom LaGarde	1977	86	945	11.0	23	575	25.0	96	1,327	13.8	82	2,670	32.6	47	909	19.3	945	1,520	2,847	5,517	6,426	19.2
6	Reggie Theus	1978	82	2,753	33.6	82	3,029	36.9	88	3,052	34.7	82	2,838	34.6	82	2,856	34.8	2,753	5,782	8,834	11,672	14,528	34.9
7	Larry Demic	1979	82	1,872	22.8	78	1,001	12.8	48	356	7.4							1,872	2,873	3,229	3,229	3,229	15.5
8	Michael Brooks	1980	82	2,479	30.2	82	2,750	33.5	82	2,457	30.0	47	1,405	29.9	10	148	14.8	2,479	5,229	7,686	9,091	9,239	30.5
9	Rolando Blackman	1981	82	1,979	24.1	75	2,349	31.3	91	3,422	37.6	85	3,003	35.3	92	3,158	34.3	1,979	4,328	7,750	10,753	13,911	32.7
10	Cliff Levingston	1982	62	879	14.2	85	1,847	21.7	74	2,017	27.3	90	2,125	23.6	91	1,956	21.5	879	2,726	4,743	6,868	8,824	22.0
11	Dale Ellis	1983	75	1,237	16.5	76	1,382	18.2	79	1,153	14.6	96	3,603	37.5	80	2,962	37.0	1,237	2,619	3,772	7,375	10,337	25.5
12	Otis Thorpe	1984	82	1,918	23.4	78	1,710	21.9	82	2,956	36.0	82	3,072	37.5	86	3,287	38.2	1,918	3,628	6,584	9,656	12,943	31.6
13	Charles Oakley	1985	80	1,860	23.3	85	3,109	36.6	92	3,189	34.7	91	2,903	31.9	71	2,532	35.7	1,860	4,969	8,158	11,061	13,593	32.4
14	Brad Sellers	1986	85	1,819	21.4	92	2,356	25.6	93	1,909	20.5	59	700	11.9	43	226	5.3	1,819	4,175	6,084	6,784	7,010	18.8
15	Derrick McKey	1987	87	1,815	20.9	90	3,090	34.3	80	2,748	34.4	77	2,617	34.0	61	2,072	34.0	1,815	4,905	7,653	10,270	12,342	31.2
16	Rony Seikaly	1988	78	1,962	25.2	74	2,409	32.6	64	2,171	33.9	82	2,917	35.6	72	2,456	34.1	1,962	4,371	6,542	9,459	11,915	32.2
17	Tom Hammonds	1989	61	805	13.2	70	1,023	14.6	37	984	26.6	54	713	13.2	82	926	11.3	805	1,828	2,812	3,525	4,451	14.6
18	Willie Burton	1990	76	1,928	25.4	68	1,585	23.3	26	451	17.3	55	708	12.9	53	1,564	29.5	1,928	3,513	3,964	4,672	6,236	22.4
19	Stacey Augmon	1991	82	2,505	30.5	76	2,205	29.0	93	2,929	31.5	79	2,414	30.6	87	2,608	30.0	2,505	4,710	7,639	10,053	12,661	30.4
20	Clarence Weatherspoon	1992	82	2,654	32.4	82	3,147	38.4	76	2,991	39.4	78	3,096	39.7	82	2,949	36.0	2,654	5,801	8,792	11,888	14,837	37.1
21	Rodney Rogers	1993	91	1,596	17.5	83	2,218	26.7	67	1,950	29.1	84	2,565	30.5	76	2,499	32.9	1,596	3,814	5,764	8,329	10,828	27.0
22	Eric Montross	1994	82	2,377	29.0	61	1,432	23.5	78	1,828	23.4	48	691	14.4	51	647	12.7	2,377	3,809	5,637	6,328	6,975	21.8
23	Ed O'Bannon	1995	64	1,253	19.6	64	809	12.6										1,253	2,062	2,062	2,062	2,062	16.1
24	Samaki Walker	1996	43	602	14.0	41	1,027	25.0	39	568	14.6	75	1,101	14.7	73	1,039	14.2	602	1,629	2,197	3,298	4,337	16.0
25	Tracy McGrady	1997	64	1,179	18.4	49	1,106	22.6	82	2,573	31.4	81	3,265	40.3	80	3,090	38.6	1,179	2,285	4,858	8,123	11,213	31.5
26	Dirk Nowitzki	1998	47	958	20.4	82	2,938	35.8	92	3,524	38.3	84	3,248	38.7	97	3,839	39.6	958	3,896	7,420	10,668	14,507	36.1
27	Shawn Marion	1999	60	1,541	25.7	83	2,996	36.1	81	3,109	38.4	87	3,655	42.0	79	3,217	40.7	1,541	4,537	7,646	11,301	14,518	37.2
28	Joel Przybilla	2000	34	271	8.0	71	1,128	15.9	36	579	16.1	17	347	20.4	76	1,858	24.4	271	1,399	1,978	2,325	4,183	17.9
29	Rodney White	2001	17	131	7.7	72	1,563	21.7	76	1,011	13.3	58	677	11.7				131	1,694	2,705	3,382	3,382	15.2
30	Amar'e Stoudemire	2002	88	2,773	31.5	55	2,025	36.8	95	3,490	36.7	3	50	16.7	92	3,032	33.0	2,773	4,798	8,288	8,338	11,370	34.1
31	Mike Sweetney	2003	46	551	12.0	77	1,509	19.6	72	1,342	18.6	49	388	7.9				551	2,060	3,402	3,790	3,790	15.5
32	Andre Iguodala	2004	87	2,878	33.1	82	3,086	37.6	76	3,062	40.3	88	3,476	39.5	88	3,538	40.2	2,878	5,964	9,026	12,502	16,040	38.1
33	Ike Diogu	2005	69	1,031	14.9	59	760	12.9	30	305	10.2	29	215	7.4	36	470	13.1	1,031	1,791	2,096	2,311	2,781	12.5
34	Patrick O'Bryant	2006	16	119	7.4	24	99	4.1	39	255	6.5	11	51	4.6				119	218	473	524	524	5.8
35	Joakim Noah	2007	74	1,534	20.7	87	2,209	25.4	69	2,113	30.6	64	2,105	32.9	67	2,044	30.5	1,534	3,743	5,856	7,961	10,005	27.7
36	D.J. Augustin	2008	72	1,908	26.5	84	1,545	18.4	82	2,757	33.6	48	1,408	29.3	77	1,237	16.1	1,908	3,453	6,210	7,618	8,855	24.4
37	DeMar DeRozan	2009	77	1,664	21.6	82	2,851	34.8	63	2,206	35.0	82	3,013	36.7				1,664	4,515	6,721	9,734	9,734	32.0
38	Gordon Hayward	2010	72	1,218	16.9	70	2,138	30.5	72	2,104	29.2							1,218	3,356	5,460	5,460	5,460	25.5
39	Kemba Walker	2011	66	1,792	27.2	82	2,859	34.9										1,792	4,651	4,651	4,651	4,651	31.4
40	Andre Drummond	2012	60	1,243	20.7													1,243	1,243	1,243	1,243	1,243	20.7
			G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	1	2	3	4	5	5 Yr MPG
	All 40 Years		2,733	60,233	22.0	2,766	74,071	26.8	2,556	71,974	28.2	2,282	66,110	29.0	2,156	63,016	29.2	1,506	3,358	5,157	6,810	8,385	26.8
	Last 20 Years		1,229	26,619	21.7	1,308	34,298	26.2	1,149	32,776	28.5	908	26,255	28.9	892	26,510	29.7	1,331	3,046	4,685	5,997	7,323	26.7
	Last 10 Years		639	13,938	21.8	647	17,056	26.4	503	14,144	28.1	371	10,656	28.7	268	7,289	27.2	1,394	3,099	4,514	5,579	6,308	26.0
	Last 5 Years		347	7,825	22.6	318	9,393	29.5	217	7,067	32.6	130	4,421	34.0	77	1,237	16.1	1,565	3,444	4,857	5,741	5,989	27.5
	Gordon Hayward		138	3,010	21.8	152	4,997	32.9	72	2,104	29.2	0	0	N/A	0	0	N/A	1,505	4,004	5,056	5,056	5,056	27.9

I think that this is what you could build a case around. Hayward is "right THERE" or slightly better in total minutes vs #9 picks. He's also the guy we have seen the most confidence from on the court on offense and defense out of our youth. He's also the guy we've seen the most on court production from as well, from stealing the ball from Kobe Bryant, getting chase down blocks, or hitting game winners.

Of course, it couldn't possibly be the minutes. It's some sort of development fairy that visited him in his sleep. For we see Hayward being a productive player, we see that against his draft spot he's right there in terms of career minutes, and we see him play with confidence. He's also the guy who has played the most out of our lotto picks. But I thought too many minutes is bad, and just enough is the oreo, and, and, and? Okay, so Hayward's mins are just right, but are more than Favors, and these many mins for Favors would be too much?

But what can I expect from those who laud and disregard per 36 stats when they best serve their own argument? I could pull the reverse Locke and instead of removing the data from HOF players, remove the data for busts at #9. I guess Dale Ellis, Charles Oakley, Dirk, and Iggy are over-dipped because they played thousands of more minutes than Gordo did. Oh, but that would be dishonest, and a small sample size.

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How does Alec Burks stack up against the last 40 years of the #12 Draft spot:

The #12 spot is where all-around players go to die, and where specialists bloom. The players here suck, right? So Burks should be ahead here.

			Season 1			Season 2			Season 3			Season 4			Season 5			Cumulative Mins per Career					Cumulative
	Player	Draft	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	1	2	3	4	5	5 Yr MPG
1	Kevin Kunnert	1973	64	701	11.0	83	2,045	24.6	80	2,335	29.2	93	2,378	25.6	80	2,152	26.9	701	2,746	5,081	7,459	9,611	24.0
2	Brian Winters	1974	68	1,516	22.3	81	2,921	36.1	78	2,717	34.8	89	3,056	34.3	79	2,575	32.6	1,516	4,437	7,154	10,210	12,785	32.4
3	Frank Oleynick	1975	52	650	12.5	50	516	10.3										650	1,166	1,166	1,166	1,166	11.4
4	Terry Furlow	1976	37	190	5.1	55	877	15.9	87	1,930	22.2	76	2,122	27.9				190	1,067	2,997	5,119	5,119	20.1
5	Cedric Maxwell	1977	72	1,213	16.8	80	2,969	37.1	89	3,064	34.4	98	3,328	34.0	90	2,975	33.1	1,213	4,182	7,246	10,574	13,549	31.6
6	George Johnson	1978	67	1,157	17.3	75	1,938	25.8	45	953	21.2	59	720	12.2	82	2,297	28.0	1,157	3,095	4,048	4,768	7,065	21.5
7	Jim Paxon	1979	75	1,314	17.5	80	2,705	33.8	82	2,756	33.6	88	3,000	34.1	86	2,858	33.2	1,314	4,019	6,775	9,775	12,633	30.7
8	Mike Woodson	1980	83	957	11.5	83	2,331	28.1	81	2,426	30.0	74	1,925	26.0	78	1,998	25.6	957	3,288	5,714	7,639	9,637	24.2
9	Kelly Tripucka	1981	82	3,077	37.5	58	2,252	38.8	81	2,701	33.3	64	1,963	30.7	85	2,801	33.0	3,077	5,329	8,030	9,993	12,794	34.6
10	John Bagley	1982	68	990	14.6	76	1,712	22.5	85	2,569	30.2	78	2,472	31.7	72	2,182	30.3	990	2,702	5,271	7,743	9,925	26.2
11	Darrell Walker	1983	94	1,519	16.2	82	2,489	30.4	81	2,023	25.0	84	2,088	24.9	57	1,095	19.2	1,519	4,008	6,031	8,119	9,214	23.2
12	Tim McCormick	1984	78	1,584	20.3	77	1,705	22.1	86	2,938	34.2	70	2,114	30.2	85	1,310	15.4	1,584	3,289	6,227	8,341	9,651	24.4
13	Kenny Green	1985	41	453	11.0	19	172	9.1										453	625	625	625	625	10.4
14	John Williams	1986	81	1,822	22.5	87	2,613	30.0	82	2,413	29.4	18	632	35.1	33	941	28.5	1,822	4,435	6,848	7,480	8,421	28.0
15	Muggsy Bogues	1987	80	1,630	20.4	79	1,755	22.2	81	2,743	33.9	81	2,299	28.4	82	2,790	34.0	1,630	3,385	6,128	8,427	11,217	27.8
16	Harvey Grant	1988	71	1,193	16.8	81	1,846	22.8	77	2,842	36.9	64	2,388	37.3	72	2,667	37.0	1,193	3,039	5,881	8,269	10,936	30.0
17	Mookie Blaylock	1989	50	1,267	25.3	72	2,585	35.9	76	2,696	35.5	83	2,919	35.2	92	3,330	36.2	1,267	3,852	6,548	9,467	12,797	34.3
18	Alec Kessler	1990	78	1,259	16.1	79	1,209	15.3	40	415	10.4	15	66	4.4				1,259	2,468	2,883	2,949	2,949	13.9
19	Greg Anthony	1991	94	1,723	18.3	85	1,939	22.8	105	2,430	23.1	72	1,078	15.0	69	2,096	30.4	1,723	3,662	6,092	7,170	9,266	21.8
20	Harold Miner	1992	73	1,383	18.9	67	1,415	21.1	45	871	19.4	19	136	7.2				1,383	2,798	3,669	3,805	3,805	18.7
21	George Lynch	1993	71	1,762	24.8	66	1,089	16.5	78	1,027	13.2	41	1,059	25.8	82	1,493	18.2	1,762	2,851	3,878	4,937	6,430	19.0
22	Khalid Reeves	1994	67	1,462	21.8	51	833	16.3	63	1,432	22.7	82	1,950	23.8	11	112	10.2	1,462	2,295	3,727	5,677	5,789	21.1
23	Cherokee Parks	1995	64	869	13.6	77	972	12.6	80	1,704	21.3	48	1,118	23.3	56	808	14.4	869	1,841	3,545	4,663	5,471	16.8
24	Vitaly Potapenko	1996	80	1,238	15.5	84	1,482	17.6	50	1,394	27.9	79	1,797	22.7	82	1,901	23.2	1,238	2,720	4,114	5,911	7,812	20.8
25	Austin Croshere	1997	26	243	9.3	28	250	8.9	104	2,375	22.8	85	2,003	23.6	80	1,345	16.8	243	493	2,868	4,871	6,216	19.2
26	Michael Doleac	1998	53	823	15.5	81	1,335	16.5	81	1,443	17.8	42	705	16.8	75	1,041	13.9	823	2,158	3,601	4,306	5,347	16.1
27	Aleksandar Radojevic	1999	2	24	12.0	12	128	10.7										24	152	152	152	152	10.9
28	Etan Thomas	2000	47	618	13.1	38	513	13.5	79	1,901	24.1	55	1,102	20.0	74	1,139	15.4	618	1,131	3,032	4,134	5,273	18.0
29	Vladimir Radmanovic	2001	66	1,343	20.3	72	1,910	26.5	77	2,321	30.1	69	1,978	28.7	89	2,220	24.9	1,343	3,253	5,574	7,552	9,772	26.2
30	Melvin Ely	2002	52	802	15.4	42	510	12.1	79	1,649	20.9	57	1,348	23.6	30	309	10.3	802	1,312	2,961	4,309	4,618	17.8
31	Nick Collison	2003	93	1,614	17.4	66	1,448	21.9	82	2,378	29.0	78	2,223	28.5	71	1,831	25.8	1,614	3,062	5,440	7,663	9,494	24.3
32	Robert Swift	2004	16	72	4.5	47	987	21.0	8	98	12.3	26	343	13.2				72	1,059	1,157	1,500	1,500	15.5
33	Yaroslav Korolev	2005	24	127	5.3	10	41	4.1										127	168	168	168	168	4.9
34	Hilton Armstrong	2006	56	634	11.3	73	804	11.0	74	1,145	15.5	33	335	10.2	61	523	8.6	634	1,438	2,583	2,918	3,441	11.6
35	Thaddeus Young	2007	80	1,714	21.4	81	2,809	34.7	67	2,145	32.0	87	2,262	26.0	76	2,032	26.7	1,714	4,523	6,668	8,930	10,962	28.0
36	Jason Thompson	2008	82	2,303	28.1	75	2,357	31.4	75	1,748	23.3	64	1,657	25.9	82	2,285	27.9	2,303	4,660	6,408	8,065	10,350	27.4
37	Gerald Henderson	2009	43	355	8.3	68	1,661	24.4	55	1,831	33.3	68	2,133	31.4				355	2,016	3,847	5,980	5,980	25.6
38	Xavier Henry	2010	38	527	13.9	45	759	16.9	50	625	12.5							527	1,286	1,911	1,911	1,911	14.4
39	Alec Burks	2011	63	1,002	15.9	64	1,137	17.8										1,002	2,139	2,139	2,139	2,139	16.8
40	Jeremy Lamb	2012	23	147	6.4													147	147	147	147	147	6.4
			G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	G	Min	MPG	1	2	3	4	5	5 Yr MPG
	All 40 Years		2,454	43,277	17.6	2,529	59,019	23.3	2,483	66,038	26.6	2,139	56,697	26.5	2,011	51,106	25.4	1,082	2,557	4,208	5,626	6,903	23.8
	Last 20 Years		1,046	17,679	16.9	1,080	21,025	19.5	1,102	25,216	22.9	914	22,013	24.1	869	17,039	19.6	884	1,935	3,196	4,297	5,149	20.5
	Last 10 Years		518	8,495	16.4	529	12,003	22.7	411	9,970	24.3	356	8,953	25.1	290	6,671	23.0	850	2,050	3,047	3,942	4,609	21.9
	Last 5 Years		249	4,334	17.4	252	5,914	23.5	180	4,204	23.4	132	3,790	28.7	82	2,285	27.9	867	2,050	2,890	3,648	4,105	22.9
	Alec Burks		63	1,002	15.9	64	1,137	17.8	0	0	N/A	0	0	N/A	0	0	N/A	1,002	2,139	2,139	2,139	2,139	16.8

Nope.

Freaking Hot Plate Williams played more. Former All-Star Kelly Tripucka played a thousand more mins in his rookie than Burks has in 2 years. I guess the only answer is that Burks must really suck (some Jazz media guys are hard already), or Raja Bell / Jamaal Tinsley are too awesome. Or maybe he's an under dipped cookie? Not according to the recent years, but let's not forget that the last 5 and 10 years data sets include a guy (Lamb) who has only played 1 season - skewing the data. (This is also the case for Beal and Drummond)

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Bottom line:

• For the last 40 years the #3 pick AVERAGED 6,866 career mins after year 3, Favors has only 4,814
• For the last 40 years the #3 pick AVERAGED 4,514 career mins after year 2, Kanter has only1,995
• For the last 40 years the #9 pick AVERAGED 5,157 career mins after year 3, Hayward has only 5,056
• For the last 40 years the #12 pick AVERAGED 2,557 career mins after year 2, Burks has only 2,139

Yup. Initial defense force will say "LOCKOUT !!!11!" but if you think Alec was going to play 500 more mins in the 16 (82 minus 66) games had there been no lockout you should probably should stick to milk and cookies; math is out of your league.

I chose total minutes by season, because a long playoff run and playing time in it is useful too (James Harden played 537 and 630 more mins in 2nd and 3rd seasons for example -- Kanter has only 43 when we made the playoffs); and grading them by season. In this version of the NBA it's season, not age, that is the true denominator. Why? Look at the rules for rookie contracts again. Lastly, I used numbers. And I used every data point for 40 years. (I did not eliminate HOFers, I want to compare our lotto guys against the best!) And I did not use subjective, idiotic terms -- that are internally inconsistent (Hayward's mins are just right, but they are more than Favors' mins, and had Derrick played as much, he'd be over dipped -- they are of the same draft class).

Maybe minutes help a player get there faster? I wonder how Karl Malone would have developed playing less than half a game, off the bench, in each of his first three seasons -- instead of 30+ right out of the gate? Or maybe it was his greatness that allowed for him to play so much so early?

What I do know is that by the numbers, against a non-manicured sample size, our guys have received BELOW AVERAGE on court experience while winning ZERO playoff games in three seasons. (A rare feat that we don't see Championship winning franchises make!) I also know that certain media members get financial performance bonuses for using social media to proselytize our failures as calculated goals met by unerringly precise, design.

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EDIT: Looking at the first four seasons for the core of three West conference Playoff teams -- and us. (Reg + Playoff Min)

• San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard
• Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry, David Lee, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes
• Houston Rockets: James Harden, Omer Asik, Chandler Parsons, Jeremy Lin

Do not adjust your screen, this is how the cookie doesn't crumble.