Have you actually looked at the shot distribution for the Utah Jazz? Yeah, we expect that Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors are the main saviors on offense. And we grant that Trey Burke and Alec Burks are doing things off the bench. But what else is really happening this season? Furthermore, it's more than just being someone to take shots. Your shot actually has to count for something, it has to matter, or why else are you taking so many? Hopefully this dialog isn't completely pedantic; and if it is I apologize. The Jazz need some offensive help, and I think that some small tweaks could be there that produce large enough results that no massive changes need to happen. Of course, that's my observation based upon looking at the relationship between who shoots and who actually puts points on the board.
The main metrics here are Points per Shot (a very simple calculation of very limited utility where it's just Points / Field Goals Attempted), and Minutes per Shot (even simpler, how many minutes on the floor a player has to be to take at least one Field Goal Attempted). If you look at the two you can plot the players and, let's be real, it looks like some players who should be shooting more just aren't getting the ball. Big first, the raw data:
|-||Exum, Burke, Neto||1||18||727||40.39||265||14.72||280||15.56||1.06||2.74|
|-||Hood, Burks, Millsap||2||18||1071||59.50||414||23.00||495||27.50||1.20||2.59|
|-||Hayward, Ingles, Johnson||3||18||932||51.78||330||18.33||419||23.28||1.27||2.82|
|-||Favors, Booker, Lyles||4||18||1039||57.72||355||19.72||405||22.50||1.14||2.93|
|-||Gobert, Withey, Pleiss||5||18||576||32.00||105||5.83||153||8.50||1.46||5.49|
I also broke this down by position. The SGs, SFs, and PFs are playing the most per game, and clearly they are taking the most shots per game. As a direct result, they are responsible for the most points. The extreme groups, the point guards and centers, just aren't getting it done. The centers rarely take a bad shot, but rarely get the ball. The point guards are almost the opposite of that.
Specifically with the players the "greenest" cells are the best ones. And our offense right now is just Hood, Hayward, Favors, Gobert, Burke, and Burks. That's six total players. That's really not good enough. When you compare it to the Jazz full team average (1.19 PPS, 2.96 MPS) you see some guys are obviously below average.
Below Average in PPS (1.19):
- Hood (1.13)
- Burke (1.12)
- Booker (0.80)
- Withey (1.18)
- Neto (0.93)
- Millsap (1.17)
- Johnson (0.90)
- Lyles (0.81)
- Pleiss (1.00)
Below Average in MPS (2.96)
- Gobert (5.70)
- Ingles (4.44)
- Booker (3.80)
- Withey (4.94)
- Neto (3.46)
- Millsap (4.92)
- Johnson (3.45)
- Lyles (3.38)
- Pleiss (3.25)
If you plot it all you get four quadrants:
- Shoots frequently, shoots efficiently [Green] - Favors, Hayward, Burks
- Shoots frequently, shoots inefficiently - Hood, Burke
- Shoots infrequently, shoots efficiently - Gobert, Ingles
- Shoots infrequently, shoots inefficiently - Withey, Millsap, Pleiss, Neto, Johnson, Lyles, Booker
Favors, Hayward, and Burks are getting it done. They shoot frequently and they shoot at an above average (for the Jazz) level (Quadrant 1). Burke and Hood both shoot at an above average rate, but make at a below average level (Quadrant 2). I think we all agree that we need more shots for Gobert, and it would be great to see Ingles actually get a few more spot up attempts per game.
The problems start with the guys who know not to shoot and do not shoot. The "best" here is Withey who is just barely below average in PPS. It's hard to figure out who is the worst guy on offense (putting points on the board) on the team. But I guess Booker is there, he's the worst in PPS, but still plays big minutes.
It should be noted that I put Dante Exum on this graphic because his smiling face and optimism should help us remember that in the big picture our offensive struggles will go away.